Boston @ Washington Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adam Duvall in the 4th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The #2 ballpark in the majors for suppressing base hits to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams on the slate today. Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Adam Duvall in today's game. Adam Duvall has been lucky this year, putting up a .349 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .316 — a .033 deviation.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Justin Turner in today's matchup. There has been a significant decline in Justin Turner's launch angle from last year's 18.6° to 15.6° this season. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Justin Turner has experienced some positive variance this year. His .361 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .318.

The #2 ballpark in the majors for suppressing base hits to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams on the slate today. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Trevor Story in today's matchup. When it comes to his batting average, Trevor Story has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .240 rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .228. Trevor Story has displayed poor plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 20th percentile with a 4.18 K/BB rate.

16% of the time that Rob Refsnyder has started against a left-handed starter this year, he has been pulled from the game early. The #2 ballpark in the majors for suppressing base hits to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams on the slate today. Rob Refsnyder will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Rob Refsnyder has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph dropping to 81.4-mph over the last week.

Alex Verdugo's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 88°. The Washington Nationals outfield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today. In the past 14 days, Alex Verdugo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.5-mph over the course of the season to 94.5-mph recently. Alex Verdugo has recorded a .276 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The #2 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Patrick Corbin will have the handedness advantage over Rafael Devers in today's game... and it's a particular mismatch considering Corbin's large platoon split. The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams on the slate today. Rafael Devers will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. In the last week, Rafael Devers's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.9% down to 0%.

The #2 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Patrick Corbin will hold the platoon advantage against Masataka Yoshida today... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Corbin's large platoon split. The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams on the slate today. Masataka Yoshida will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Masataka Yoshida's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6% down to 0%.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 88°. The switch-hitting Ildemaro Vargas will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Chris Sale... and even better, Sale has a huge platoon split. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 9th-best out of all the teams playing today. Ildemaro Vargas will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Ildemaro Vargas has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 96.3-mph average in the past week to his seasonal figure of 92-mph.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 88°. Alex Call will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Sale has a huge platoon split. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 9th-best out of all the teams playing today. Alex Call will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Alex Call has been unlucky this year, compiling a .273 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .319 — a .046 deviation.

CJ Abrams is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year. In the majors, Nationals Park's RF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 88°. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 11th-best out of all the teams playing today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and CJ Abrams will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 88°. Triston Casas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Triston Casas's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, increasing from 38.2% on the season to 69.2% over the last 7 days. By putting up a .362 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Triston Casas has performed in the 87th percentile for hitting ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lane Thomas in the 78th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Lane Thomas is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 88°. Lane Thomas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale today... and even more favorably, Sale has a huge platoon split. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 9th-best out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 79th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 88°. Connor Wong will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Patrick Corbin today... and the cherry on top, Corbin has a large platoon split. Connor Wong's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (28° over the last 14 days) is significantly higher than his 15.3° seasonal figure. Ranking in the 82nd percentile, the hardest ball Connor Wong has connected with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.6 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Meneses in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Joey Meneses is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 88°. Joey Meneses will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Sale has a huge platoon split. Joey Meneses has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

Keibert Ruiz is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 88°. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 9th-best out of all the teams playing today. Keibert Ruiz will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Keibert Ruiz has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.5-mph average to last year's 88.4-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Chavis in the 79th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 88°. Michael Chavis will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Sale in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Sale has a huge platoon split. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 9th-best out of all the teams playing today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Michael Chavis will hold that advantage in today's game.

Stone Garrett has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 88°. Stone Garrett will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Sale has a huge platoon split. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 9th-best out of all the teams playing today. Stone Garrett is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Boston (#2-worst of all teams on the slate).

Riley Adams has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (97% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 88°. Riley Adams will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today's game... and even more favorably, Sale has a huge platoon split. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 9th-best out of all the teams playing today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Riley Adams will hold that advantage today.