New York @ St. Louis Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 7th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 100th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams playing today. Over the past 7 days, Nolan Arenado's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 92 mph to 87.8 mph. There has been a significant decline in Nolan Arenado's launch angle from last year's 21.7° to 17.2° this year.

The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Adam Wainwright Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences today. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the weakest among every team playing today. Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Francisco Lindor in today's game. Ranking in the 21st percentile, Francisco Lindor has notched a .272 BABIP this year.

In today's game, Paul Goldschmidt is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.4% rate (77th percentile). The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams playing today. Paul Goldschmidt's launch angle recently (4.8° in the last two weeks) is considerably worse than his 12.2° seasonal angle. Paul Goldschmidt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, decreasing from 16% to 12.8%.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-most fair ground in the league — generally bad for home runs. The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams playing today. Tommy Edman's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, falling from 44% to 39%. In the last two weeks, Tommy Edman's 29.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 39%. Posting a .267 BABIP this year, Tommy Edman grades out in the 16th percentile.

The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the weakest among every team playing today. Jeff McNeil will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. Jeff McNeil has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 93.5-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 87.9-mph. Jeff McNeil's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 16.7% to 11.5%. Ranking in the 24th percentile, Jeff McNeil has put up a .300 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. D.J. Stewart will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Adam Wainwright today. D.J. Stewart has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.4% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last 7 days. D.J. Stewart has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 107.2-mph average in the past week to his seasonal average of 95.9-mph.

Pete Alonso projects as the 14th-best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Pete Alonso is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.241) provides evidence that Pete Alonso has experienced some negative variance this year with his .222 actual batting average.

Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the weakest among every team playing today. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Brandon Nimmo in today's matchup. Brandon Nimmo's exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 91.9-mph seasonal average has decreased to 88.1-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Jose Fermin will have the handedness advantage against Jose Quintana today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Jose Fermin will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Jordan Walker will hold the platoon advantage over Jose Quintana today. Jordan Walker will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Willson Contreras will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Tyler O'Neill will have the handedness advantage over Jose Quintana today.

Daniel Vogelbach is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Daniel Vogelbach will hold the platoon advantage against Adam Wainwright today. Daniel Vogelbach hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Andrew Knizner will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Andrew Knizner will hold that advantage today. Andrew Knizner has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 10.8% seasonal rate to 20% in the past 7 days.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Taylor Motter will hold the platoon advantage over Jose Quintana today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Taylor Motter will hold that advantage today.

Danny Mendick has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Nolan Gorman has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.