Boston @ Washington Picks & Props

Nationals Park ranks as the #27 ballpark in MLB for right-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Washington Nationals infield defense profiles as the 5th-best among every team on the slate today. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Justin Turner in today's game. Justin Turner's launch angle this season (15.6°) is significantly lower than his 18.6° angle last year. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.318) implies that Justin Turner has had positive variance on his side this year with his .361 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Nationals Park has the 9th-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Alex Verdugo has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 94.5-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 90.5-mph. Posting a .276 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Alex Verdugo has performed in the 78th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Triston Casas pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. In the past week, Triston Casas's 30.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.3%. With a .360 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Triston Casas grades out in the 86th percentile for hitting ability.

Rafael Devers projects as the 17th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Nationals Park has the 9th-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Rafael Devers has posted a .359 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 85th percentile.

CJ Abrams is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Nationals Park has the 9th-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and CJ Abrams will hold that advantage in today's matchup. CJ Abrams has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 7.1% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Connor Wong will hold the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore in today's game. Over the past two weeks, Connor Wong has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 24.3° compared to his seasonal mark of 15.3°. Placing in the 82nd percentile, the hardest ball Connor Wong has hit this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.6 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power skill.

Nationals Park has the 9th-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Dominic Smith will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.1°, Dominic Smith has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 21.5° angle over the past 7 days.

Rob Refsnyder's BABIP ability is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Rob Refsnyder will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore in today's game. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Rob Refsnyder has been unlucky this year. His .324 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .354.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lane Thomas in the 78th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Lane Thomas is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Lane Thomas will have the handedness advantage over James Paxton in today's matchup. Lane Thomas will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Keibert Ruiz is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Keibert Ruiz will hold that advantage in today's game. Keibert Ruiz has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 6.8% seasonal rate to 12.5% over the past 7 days. Keibert Ruiz has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 90.5-mph average to last year's 88.4-mph EV.

Michael Chavis's BABIP talent is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Michael Chavis will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton in today's matchup. Michael Chavis will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Compared to last year, Michael Chavis has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 41% to 58.7% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Meneses in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Joey Meneses is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Joey Meneses will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against James Paxton today. Joey Meneses has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. The switch-hitting Ildemaro Vargas will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against James Paxton. Ildemaro Vargas will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Ildemaro Vargas has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 96.6-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 92-mph. Ildemaro Vargas's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, going from 41.1% on the season to 61.1% in the past week.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Alex Call will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against James Paxton in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Alex Call will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alex Call's true offensive skill to be a .316, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .043 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .273 wOBA.

Stone Garrett is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Stone Garrett will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton in today's matchup. Stone Garrett will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the last week, Stone Garrett's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9% up to 28.6%.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Trevor Story ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Trevor Story is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Trevor Story will have the handedness advantage over MacKenzie Gore in today's game. Trevor Story has been hot recently, putting up a a 25% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) in the last two weeks.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Riley Adams will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against James Paxton today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Riley Adams will hold that advantage today. Placing in the 95th percentile, the hardest ball Riley Adams has made contact with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 115 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power ability. Riley Adams grades out in the 78th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (17.5% rate since the start of last season).

Adam Duvall is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 83°. Adam Duvall will hold the platoon advantage over MacKenzie Gore today. Over the past week, Adam Duvall's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.2-mph over the course of the season to 105-mph lately. There has been a significant improvement in Adam Duvall's launch angle from last year's 23.4° to 28.4° this year.