Boston @ Washington Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 4th-worst field in the majors for RHB BABIP. Josiah Gray will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Justin Turner today. Justin Turner will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Justin Turner's launch angle this year (15.6°) is a considerable dropoff from his 18.6° figure last season. Justin Turner has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .364 rate is a fair amount higher than his .319 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Nationals Park projects as the #27 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Masataka Yoshida will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Masataka Yoshida's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6% down to 0%. Compared to his seasonal mark of 3.4°, Masataka Yoshida has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-10.3°) in the last 14 days. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.328) may lead us to conclude that Masataka Yoshida has been very fortunate this year with his .359 actual wOBA.

Lane Thomas's BABIP talent is projected in the 78th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Lane Thomas is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. This contest is expected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Lane Thomas will hold that advantage in today's game. Lane Thomas has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph to 91-mph in the past 14 days.

CJ Abrams is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The 9th-shallowest RF fences among all parks are found in Nationals Park. This contest is expected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. CJ Abrams will have the handedness advantage over Nick Pivetta in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and CJ Abrams will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Keibert Ruiz is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. This contest is expected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Keibert Ruiz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. This season, Keibert Ruiz has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 90.5 mph compared to last year's 88.4 mph mark.

Nationals Park projects as the #27 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Rafael Devers in today's game. Rafael Devers has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 13% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week. Rafael Devers's exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 94.4-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 80-mph over the past week. In the last week, Rafael Devers's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16.8%.

Nationals Park projects as the #27 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Alex Verdugo will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Alex Verdugo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined recently, going from 14.4% on the season to 7.4% in the last two weeks. Alex Verdugo has been cold in recent games, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Stone Garrett in the 75th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. This contest is expected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Stone Garrett will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Stone Garrett's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.8% down to 0%. Stone Garrett has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 93.8-mph over the last week.

Dominic Smith is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. The 9th-shallowest RF fences among all parks are found in Nationals Park. This contest is expected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Dominic Smith will have the handedness advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's matchup. Dominic Smith will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Triston Casas ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Triston Casas has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. This contest is expected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage over Josiah Gray in today's game. Triston Casas pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

This contest is expected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Alex Call will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Despite posting a .273 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alex Call given the .042 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .315.

The 9th-shallowest RF fences among all parks are found in Nationals Park. This contest is expected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Reese McGuire will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Josiah Gray in today's matchup. Sporting a .351 BABIP since the start of last season, Reese McGuire finds himself in the 97th percentile.

The 9th-shallowest RF fences among all parks are found in Nationals Park. This contest is expected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Ildemaro Vargas will hold that advantage today. Ildemaro Vargas has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 92-mph average to last year's 88.5-mph figure. Ildemaro Vargas's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, increasing from 41.1% on the season to 53.8% in the past 7 days.

Joey Meneses's batting average talent is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Joey Meneses is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. This contest is expected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Joey Meneses has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Joey Meneses will hold that advantage in today's game.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Trevor Story ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Trevor Story is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. This contest is expected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Trevor Story has been hot lately, putting up a a 25% Barrel% (an advanced standard to study power) over the last 7 days. Putting up a 94.7-mph average exit velocity over the past week, Trevor Story has been in great form of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. The 9th-shallowest RF fences among all parks are found in Nationals Park. This contest is expected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Jarren Duran will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Josiah Gray today. Sporting a .353 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jarren Duran finds himself in the 79th percentile.

This contest is expected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Adam Duvall has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 106.1-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal figure of 95.2-mph. Adam Duvall's launch angle this season (28.4°) is quite a bit higher than his 23.4° figure last year. Compared to his seasonal average of 28.4°, Adam Duvall has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 38.9° figure over the past 14 days. Adam Duvall has posted a .359 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 88th percentile.

Connor Wong has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.