Minnesota @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

The #8 park in the majors for suppressing base hits to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 8th-worst field in Major League Baseball for righty BABIP. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output. Carlos Correa will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Carlos Correa's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, going from 13% on the season to 8.8% over the last two weeks. The standard deviation of Carlos Correa's launch angle has been very inconsistent recently (21.7° in the last 7 days), which is a proxy for poor bat control and not seeing the ball well.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 8th-worst field in Major League Baseball for righty BABIP. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output. Sonny Gray will have the handedness advantage against Alec Bohm in today's game. Alec Bohm's exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 90.5-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 88.4-mph in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 8th-worst field in Major League Baseball for righty BABIP. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output. Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jorge Polanco in today's matchup. Jorge Polanco's average exit velocity has declined this season; his 89-mph mark last year has dropped to 86.9-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Schwarber in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray in today's matchup.

When it comes to his batting average skill, Trea Turner is projected as the 18th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Out of all the teams in action today, the 25th-best infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins. Trea Turner will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Ryan Jeffers has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Ryan Jeffers will have the handedness advantage over Ranger Suarez in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 5th-worst among every team today.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Kyle Farmer will hold the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez today. Kyle Farmer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.1% — 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 5th-worst among every team today. As it relates to his batting average, Kyle Farmer has experienced some negative variance this year. His .242 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .262.

Bryson Stott's batting average ability is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryson Stott is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Bryson Stott will hold the platoon advantage over Sonny Gray today. The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryson Stott has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Garrett Stubbs will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray in today's game. The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Garrett Stubbs has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Out of all the teams in action today, the 25th-best infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Donovan Solano is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Donovan Solano will hold the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez in today's game.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Extreme groundball bats like Joey Gallo tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ranger Suarez. In the past week, Joey Gallo's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 20.7% up to 50%. Joey Gallo has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 101.8-mph in the last 7 days.

Christian Vazquez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Christian Vazquez will have the handedness advantage over Ranger Suarez in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 5th-worst among every team today.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Max Kepler has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 12.3% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the last two weeks. In the past two weeks, Max Kepler's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.5-mph over the course of the season to 98.4-mph of late. Over the last two weeks, Max Kepler's 35.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cave in the 76th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Jake Cave will hold the platoon advantage over Sonny Gray in today's game. The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cave stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Jake Cave has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

When assessing his BABIP talent, Edouard Julien is projected as the 7th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Edouard Julien has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 5th-worst among every team today. Edouard Julien has notched a .377 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 94th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 5th-worst among every team today. Matt Wallner has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98.9-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 95.1-mph. Over the last two weeks, Matt Wallner's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.9% up to 20%.

J.T. Realmuto has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Nick Castellanos has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Michael A. Taylor has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.