Miami @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

Graham Ashcraft will have the handedness advantage over Bryan De La Cruz in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Bryan De La Cruz today. From last season to this one, Bryan De La Cruz's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 95.8 mph to 92.8 mph.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Luis Arraez today. Luis Arraez has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph dropping to 83.9-mph in the past 14 days. Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.7°, Luis Arraez has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (2.4°) over the past 14 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Luis Arraez's true offensive talent to be a .341, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .039 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .380 wOBA.

The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Johnny Cueto Elly De La Cruz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 76th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 11th-deepest CF fences today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.297) implies that Elly De La Cruz has been very fortunate this year with his .326 actual wOBA. In terms of plate discipline, Elly De La Cruz's skill is quite weak, sporting a 4.86 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 9th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. The #9 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. In Major League Baseball, Great American Ball Park's RF fences are the 8th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 81°.

Graham Ashcraft will hold the platoon advantage over Jorge Soler in today's game. Jorge Soler will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. Jorge Soler's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 96.5-mph figure last year has decreased to 94.5-mph. Jorge Soler's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined lately, going from 40.5% on the season to 11.8% in the past week's worth of games. Posting a .259 BABIP this year, Jorge Soler is positioned in the 11th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 77th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The #9 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Jesus Sanchez will have the handedness advantage against Graham Ashcraft in today's game. Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jesus Sanchez has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.1-mph average to last season's 94.7-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Matt McLain is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 9th-best stadium in the league for RHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 81°. Matt McLain has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 9th-best stadium in the league for RHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 81°. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 76th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Spencer Steer is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 9th-best stadium in the league for RHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 81°. Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Tyler Stephenson's BABIP talent is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 9th-best stadium in the league for RHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 81°. Tyler Stephenson has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Tyler Stephenson will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The #9 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Will Benson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Johnny Cueto in today's game. Will Benson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Will Benson has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98.1-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 93.8-mph.

Joey Votto has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (92% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. The #9 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. In Major League Baseball, Great American Ball Park's RF fences are the 8th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 81°. Joey Votto will have the handedness advantage against Johnny Cueto today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Avisail Garcia in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 9th-best stadium in the league for RHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 81°. Avisail Garcia has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.9-mph average to last season's 94.2-mph EV. Avisail Garcia's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, going from 49.2% on the season to 83.3% in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 9th-best stadium in the league for RHB batting average. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 81°. Nick Senzel will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Nick Senzel has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 91.9-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 89.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 9th-best stadium in the league for RHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 81°. Jacob Stallings has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jacob Stallings has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.3-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Wendle in the 80th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. The #9 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Joey Wendle will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Graham Ashcraft in today's game. Joey Wendle has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Joey Wendle has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 3% to 8.3%.

Luke Maile has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

TJ Friedl has gone over 0.5 in 10 of his last 10 games.

Jon Berti has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.