Chicago @ New York Picks & Props

Citi Field grades out as the #30 stadium in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citi Field's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Mike Tauchman today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mike Tauchman's true offensive talent to be a .313, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .036 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .349 wOBA. Mike Tauchman's 6.4° launch angle (a reliable standard to evaluate a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in baseball: 10th percentile.

Citi Field grades out as the #30 stadium in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citi Field's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Compared to his seasonal figure of 12.9°, Jeff McNeil has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (7.4°) over the last two weeks. Jeff McNeil's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, decreasing from 16.7% to 10.7%. Jeff McNeil has been cold in recent games, posting a 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Cody Bellinger's BABIP ability is projected in the 24th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Citi Field grades out as the #30 stadium in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citi Field's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Cody Bellinger will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. There has been a decrease in Cody Bellinger's average exit velocity this year, from 89.4 mph last year to 86.9 mph now

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citi Field as the worst ballpark in the game for righty batting average. Citi Field's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Carlos Carrasco will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nico Hoerner in today's game. Nico Hoerner will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.3°, Nico Hoerner has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (5.8°) in the last 14 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. The shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball are found in Citi Field. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate today. In the past week, Dansby Swanson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.6% up to 28.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate today. Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christopher Morel has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.4-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.5-mph mark. Christopher Morel has put up a .373 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Brandon Nimmo is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate today. Brandon Nimmo will have the handedness advantage against Jameson Taillon today. The Chicago Cubs don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch the whole game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. The shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball are found in Citi Field. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Francisco Lindor will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Ian Happ is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate today. Ian Happ has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Ian Happ has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 9.7% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Madrigal in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. The shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball are found in Citi Field. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate today. Nick Madrigal's launch angle this season (4.2°) is significantly higher than his -0.4° angle last year. Nick Madrigal's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, rising from 15% on the season to 27.8% over the past week.

Daniel Vogelbach is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate today. Daniel Vogelbach will have the handedness advantage against Jameson Taillon today. The Chicago Cubs don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Daniel Vogelbach is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen all game. Daniel Vogelbach hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate today. Yan Gomes hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate today. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Francisco Alvarez pulls many of his flyballs (33.1% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Francisco Alvarez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate today. Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Mark Vientos will hold that advantage in today's game. Mark Vientos has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.4-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 94.4-mph mark. Over the past two weeks, Mark Vientos's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.3% up to 13.6%.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate today. Omar Narvaez will have the handedness advantage over Jameson Taillon today. The Chicago Cubs don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Omar Narvaez is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch the whole game. Omar Narvaez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Omar Narvaez will hold that advantage in today's game.

DJ Stewart has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Pete Alonso has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.