Kansas City @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 8th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. The Kansas City Royals outfield defense profiles as the best out of every team today. Justin Turner's launch angle this year (15.5°) is a significant dropoff from his 18.6° mark last season. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Justin Turner has had positive variance on his side this year. His .361 rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .319.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drew Waters as the 15th-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his BABIP ability. The #2 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Drew Waters pulls many of his flyballs (32.9% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 15th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Drew Waters has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 96.9-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal figure of 93.7-mph.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 8th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Brayan Bello will hold the platoon advantage over Maikel Garcia today. Typically, bats like Maikel Garcia who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Brayan Bello. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Maikel Garcia in today's matchup.

Rob Refsnyder has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 12% of the time when starting against a left-handed starter this year. Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 8th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. The Kansas City Royals outfield defense profiles as the best out of every team today. Rob Refsnyder has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 10.9% rate last season has dropped off to 4.3% this year.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 8th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Cole Ragans will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Masataka Yoshida in today's game. The Kansas City Royals outfield defense profiles as the best out of every team today. Masataka Yoshida has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .368 mark is a good deal higher than his .333 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Brayan Bello will have the handedness advantage against Salvador Perez in today's matchup. Salvador Perez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Salvador Perez's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (15.8°) is a significant dropoff from his 21.3° figure last year.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, MJ Melendez ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). MJ Melendez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. The #2 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. MJ Melendez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today. MJ Melendez pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

Michael Massey has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The #2 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Michael Massey will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today. Michael Massey pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.2% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Michael Massey generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dairon Blanco in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The #2 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Dairon Blanco hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 15th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Dairon Blanco has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 28.86 ft/sec to 30.34 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

The #2 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Kyle Isbel will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup. Kyle Isbel pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.5% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 15th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Kyle Isbel's launch angle lately (40.5° in the past week's worth of games) is a significant increase over his 12.7° seasonal figure.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 8th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Cole Ragans will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Rafael Devers in today's game. The Kansas City Royals outfield defense profiles as the best out of every team today. Rafael Devers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 42.2% to 36.7%.

The #2 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Triston Casas pulls many of his flyballs (36.1% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Triston Casas will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.9°, Triston Casas has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 23.4° figure over the past two weeks. By putting up a .353 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Triston Casas is ranked in the 81st percentile for offensive skills.

Matt Beaty has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. The #2 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The 3rd-shallowest RF fences in MLB are found in Fenway Park. Matt Beaty will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 15th-weakest out of every team on the slate today.

In the league, Fenway Park's centerfield dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. Yu Chang will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cole Ragans in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Yu Chang will hold that advantage today. Yu Chang's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 14.4% to 17.5%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.214) suggests that Yu Chang has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .191 actual batting average.

Connor Wong's BABIP skill is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #2 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Connor Wong will hold the platoon advantage against Cole Ragans in today's matchup. Connor Wong pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage today.

Adam Duvall is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. The #2 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Adam Duvall will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cole Ragans in today's matchup. Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (39.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Adam Duvall will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Alex Verdugo has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Matt Duffy has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Edward Olivares has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Bobby Witt Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.