New York @ Baltimore Picks & Props

Over the past 14 days, Ryan Mountcastle's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.3% down to 5.3%. In the last 7 days, Ryan Mountcastle's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16.7%. By putting up a 4.8 K/BB rate this year, Ryan Mountcastle has shown bad plate discipline, grading out in the 9th percentile.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the deepest LF fences in the league. In the last week's worth of games, Austin Hays's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal EV of 90.9 mph to 83.9 mph. Austin Hays's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined in recent games, falling from 39% on the season to 32.4% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.251) provides evidence that Austin Hays has been very fortunate this year with his .293 actual batting average. Austin Hays has shown weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 19th percentile with a 3.94 K/BB rate.

The Baltimore Orioles infield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest among every team playing today. Jeff McNeil will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. Jeff McNeil's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 88.1-mph seasonal average has lowered to 82.3-mph over the last two weeks. Jeff McNeil's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, decreasing from 16.7% to 9.7%. Jeff McNeil's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, going from 9.7% on the season to 0% in the past week.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the deepest LF fences in the league. Over the past week, Adley Rutschman's 23.1% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 46.9%.

Starling Marte is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game. Kyle Bradish will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Starling Marte in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Starling Marte in today's matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Nimmo is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today. The #5 ballpark in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 86°. Brandon Nimmo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Bradish in today's matchup.

Gunnar Henderson's BABIP ability is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. The #5 ballpark in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 86°. Gunnar Henderson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brett Baty in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. The #5 ballpark in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 86°. Brett Baty will have the handedness advantage against Kyle Bradish today. In terms of his batting average, Brett Baty has had some very poor luck this year. His .227 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .263.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The #5 ballpark in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 86°. Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences today.

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 park in MLB for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 86°. The switch-hitting Anthony Santander will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Jose Quintana. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Anthony Santander will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 park in MLB for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 86°. Francisco Alvarez has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.6-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.2-mph EV.

Omar Narvaez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The #5 ballpark in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. In the league, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field dimensions are the shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 86°. Omar Narvaez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Bradish in today's game.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 park in MLB for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 86°. Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 park in MLB for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 86°. Ramon Urias will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana in today's game. Ramon Urias has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Ramon Urias will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Jordan Westburg's BABIP ability is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jordan Westburg has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 park in MLB for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 86°. Jordan Westburg will have the handedness advantage against Jose Quintana in today's game.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 park in MLB for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 86°. Jorge Mateo will have the handedness advantage over Jose Quintana in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jorge Mateo will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Mateo has suffered from bad luck this year. His .263 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .321.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 park in MLB for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 86°. James McCann will have the handedness advantage over Jose Quintana in today's game. James McCann hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. James McCann will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Ryan McKenna's BABIP talent is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 park in MLB for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 86°. Ryan McKenna will have the handedness advantage over Jose Quintana in today's matchup. Ryan McKenna will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

DJ Stewart has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Danny Mendick has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Pete Alonso has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.