Toronto @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to worse offense. Over the past two weeks, Jarren Duran's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.2% down to 0%. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Jarren Duran's 4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.4%. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, putting up a .371 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .044 deviation.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to worse offense. Chris Bassitt will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Justin Turner in today's game. Justin Turner has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last 7 days. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Justin Turner has experienced some positive variance this year. His .361 figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .323.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to worse offense. Masataka Yoshida has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 6.2% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last week. Masataka Yoshida has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph dropping to 83.4-mph in the last week. In the past week, Masataka Yoshida's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.1%. Masataka Yoshida has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .377 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The #2 field in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Daulton Varsho pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. There has been a significant improvement in Daulton Varsho's launch angle from last year's 14.5° to 18.5° this year. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.321) suggests that Daulton Varsho has experienced some negative variance this year with his .277 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin Kiermaier in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The #2 field in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Kevin Kiermaier hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. With a .273 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Kevin Kiermaier has performed in the 76th percentile. Placing in the 89th percentile, Kevin Kiermaier sits with a .342 BABIP this year.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to worse offense. Whit Merrifield will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. Whit Merrifield has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.3-mph dropping to 81.3-mph over the past two weeks. Whit Merrifield's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 91.2-mph average last season has lowered to 88.6-mph. Whit Merrifield's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, falling from 17.1% on the season to 6.7% in the past 14 days.

Alex Verdugo's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #2 field in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Alex Verdugo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt today. Alex Verdugo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Alex Verdugo will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the game for righty batting average. Alejandro Kirk will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Murphy today... and even more favorably, Murphy has a large platoon split. Alejandro Kirk has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Despite posting a .299 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alejandro Kirk has suffered from bad luck given the .037 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .336.

The #2 field in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences among all parks. Cavan Biggio has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, improving his 7% rate last season to 12.9% this season. Cavan Biggio has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.6-mph average to last season's 89.3-mph figure. Compared to last season, Cavan Biggio has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 20.3% to 26.7% this season.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to worse offense. Rafael Devers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, decreasing from 42.2% to 37.1%. Rafael Devers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off of late, going from 37.1% on the season to 23.1% over the last two weeks. With a .265 BABIP this year, Rafael Devers finds himself in the 17th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, George Springer ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the game for righty batting average. George Springer will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Murphy today... and the cherry on top, Murphy has a large platoon split. George Springer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.8% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Matt Chapman ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Chapman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the game for righty batting average. Matt Chapman will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Murphy in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Murphy has a large platoon split. Matt Chapman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

Triston Casas is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season. The #2 field in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Triston Casas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's matchup. Triston Casas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Triston Casas will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Danny Jansen is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the game for righty batting average. Danny Jansen will have the handedness advantage against Chris Murphy in today's matchup... and moreover, Murphy has a large platoon split. Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Danny Jansen has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 11% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the past 14 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Brandon Belt ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Belt is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. The #2 field in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Brandon Belt pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Brandon Belt has made notable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.1% seasonal rate to 18.8% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the game for righty batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences in the league. Yu Chang will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. In the last 7 days, Yu Chang's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.1-mph over the course of the season to 100-mph of late. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.3°, Yu Chang has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 26° angle in the past 7 days.

The #2 field in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences among all parks. Reese McGuire will have the handedness advantage over Chris Bassitt in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Reese McGuire will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Adam Duvall has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Connor Wong has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.