Toronto @ Boston Picks & Props

16% of the time that Jarren Duran has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pulled from the game early. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers. Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 93.4-mph average last season has dropped off to 89.6-mph. From last season to this one, Jarren Duran's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 18.4% to 12%.

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the league for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Daulton Varsho pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Daulton Varsho's launch angle this season (19.2°) is quite a bit better than his 14.5° angle last year. Daulton Varsho's launch angle of late (26.7° over the past two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 19.2° seasonal figure. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Daulton Varsho has had bad variance on his side this year. His .281 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .325.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin Kiermaier in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Kevin Kiermaier hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Posting a .270 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Kevin Kiermaier finds himself in the 75th percentile. Checking in at the 86th percentile, Kevin Kiermaier has put up a .339 BABIP this year.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers. Jose Berrios will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Justin Turner today. Justin Turner's launch angle this year (15.4°) is considerably lower than his 18.6° mark last year. Over the past week, Justin Turner's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18.2%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 17th-best batter in Major League Baseball. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the league for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the league, Fenway Park's RF dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. Rafael Devers will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios today.

Alex Verdugo's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alex Verdugo will have the handedness advantage against Jose Berrios today. Alex Verdugo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Alex Verdugo will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Alex Verdugo has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 91.1-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 89-mph figure.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers. Over the last two weeks, Masataka Yoshida's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%. Over the past 7 days, Masataka Yoshida's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 91.5 mph to 84.2 mph. Masataka Yoshida's launch angle in recent games (-4.2° in the past two weeks) is considerably lower than his 2.9° seasonal mark.

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the league for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Triston Casas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios today. Triston Casas pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Triston Casas will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Over the last 14 days, Triston Casas has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 14.9% to 28.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in the league for right-handed batting average. Nick Pivetta will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matt Chapman in today's matchup. Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Matt Chapman has made big gains with his Barrel%, upping his 12.9% rate last year to 18.5% this year.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers. Whit Merrifield will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Whit Merrifield's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 91.2-mph mark last season has decreased to 88.8-mph. Whit Merrifield's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased in recent games, falling from 16.6% on the season to 10.5% over the past 14 days.

Danny Jansen is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Nick Pivetta will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Danny Jansen today. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Danny Jansen has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 11% seasonal rate to 26.7% over the past two weeks. Danny Jansen's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 17.6% to 22%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Belt in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Belt is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the league for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Brandon Belt pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Brandon Belt's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.2-mph over the course of the season to 94.6-mph in recent games.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, George Springer ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in the league for right-handed batting average. Nick Pivetta will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against George Springer in today's matchup. George Springer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.8% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in the league for right-handed batting average. Nick Pivetta will have the handedness advantage over Alejandro Kirk in today's matchup. Alejandro Kirk has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Adam Duvall is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in the league for right-handed batting average. Adam Duvall pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today. Adam Duvall will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. In the last 14 days, Adam Duvall's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94-mph over the course of the season to 96-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in the league for right-handed batting average. Connor Wong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Connor Wong will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Connor Wong has made notable gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 9% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in the league for right-handed batting average. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Yu Chang will hold that advantage in today's matchup. As it relates to his batting average, Yu Chang has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .191 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .214.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.