Colorado @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Nolan Arenado's BABIP talent is projected in the 5th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences today. The Colorado Rockies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams in action today. In the past 7 days, Nolan Arenado's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%. There has been a significant decline in Nolan Arenado's launch angle from last season's 21.7° to 17.8° this year.

Ryan McMahon is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Ryan McMahon's 95.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced standard to study power) ranks in the 91st percentile this year. Sporting a .330 BABIP this year, Ryan McMahon has performed in the 81st percentile.

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. The switch-hitting Michael Toglia will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Steven Matz. Michael Toglia has been lifting the ball well of late, posting a 20.6° launch angle in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Homers are generally less common at venues with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest among all major league parks. The Colorado Rockies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams in action today. Tommy Edman's 4.5% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) grades out in the 17th percentile this year. Placing in the 25th percentile, Tommy Edman sits with a .300 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year. Ranking in the 15th percentile, Tommy Edman has notched a .262 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Jones in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Nolan Jones's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, increasing from 18.9% on the season to 28.6% over the past two weeks. This year, the hardest ball Nolan Jones has connected with reached a maximum exit velocity of 114.2 mph (a reliable stat to assess power), ranking in the 92nd percentile. Sporting a .341 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Nolan Jones finds himself in the 76th percentile.

Brendan Rodgers's batting average ability is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brendan Rodgers is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Brendan Rodgers will have the handedness advantage over Steven Matz in today's game. Brendan Rodgers has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .266 rate is quite a bit lower than his .277 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Lars Nootbaar will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Nolan Gorman will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

In today's matchup, Paul Goldschmidt is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.5% rate (77th percentile). The Colorado Rockies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams in action today. Paul Goldschmidt has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph dropping to 87.6-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. Compared to his seasonal figure of 12.8°, Paul Goldschmidt has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (6.8°) in the last two weeks' worth of games. Paul Goldschmidt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, decreasing from 16% to 13%.

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Elehuris Montero will hold the platoon advantage over Steven Matz today. Elehuris Montero hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Grading out in the 76th percentile of THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season, Elehuris Montero demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields - a crucial skill for achieving a high batting average.

Elias Diaz is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Elias Diaz will hold the platoon advantage against Steven Matz in today's matchup. Elias Diaz has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph to 92.8-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Compared to last season, Elias Diaz has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 11.8% to 14.9% this season.

Jurickson Profar is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. The switch-hitting Jurickson Profar will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Steven Matz. Over the last 14 days, Jurickson Profar's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 86.3-mph over the course of the season to 88.4-mph of late. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.3°, Jurickson Profar has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 18° figure in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Tovar in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Ezequiel Tovar is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Ezequiel Tovar will have the handedness advantage over Steven Matz in today's matchup. Ezequiel Tovar is in the 93rd percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (49.1% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Jordan Walker will hold the platoon advantage over Ty Blach today. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Jordan Walker will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Dylan Carlson ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Ty Blach. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Dylan Carlson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Dylan Carlson has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 89.3-mph average to last year's 86-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Willson Contreras will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ty Blach in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today.

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Alan Trejo will have the handedness advantage over Steven Matz in today's game. Alan Trejo is in the 97th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (57.1% rate this year).

Taylor Motter has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Tyler O'Neill has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.