Arizona @ Toronto Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 5th-worst ballpark in MLB for RHB base hits. This game is forecasted to have the 3rd-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Bo Bichette has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 10.1% seasonal rate to 25% in the last week. Bo Bichette's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, falling from 14.6% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Bo Bichette has been very fortunate this year. His .364 rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .351.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 5th-worst ballpark in MLB for RHB base hits. This game is forecasted to have the 3rd-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Whit Merrifield has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph dropping to 81.2-mph over the past 7 days. Whit Merrifield's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 91.2-mph figure last season has fallen off to 89-mph. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Whit Merrifield's true offensive talent to be a .316, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .014 gap between that figure and his actual .330 wOBA.

Among all stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 10th-shallowest. Daulton Varsho will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Daulton Varsho has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 88-mph average. Daulton Varsho's launch angle this season (18.4°) is significantly higher than his 14.5° angle last year. Daulton Varsho's launch angle in recent games (26.3° over the past 14 days) is significantly better than his 18.4° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 5th-worst ballpark in MLB for RHB base hits. This game is forecasted to have the 3rd-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the 5th-strongest out of every team playing today. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ketel Marte today. Ketel Marte's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased in recent games, going from 13.2% on the season to 0% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 5th-worst ballpark in MLB for RHB base hits. This game is forecasted to have the 3rd-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. George Springer's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (8°) is considerably worse than his 11.5° mark last season.

Kevin Kiermaier's BABIP ability is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kevin Kiermaier hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Kevin Kiermaier will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Over the last two weeks, Kevin Kiermaier's 26.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.1%. Kevin Kiermaier has recorded a .332 BABIP this year, placing in the 79th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Gabriel Moreno will have the handedness advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's game... and the cherry on top, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Gabriel Moreno hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Among all stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 10th-shallowest. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake McCarthy can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Among all stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 10th-shallowest. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corbin Carroll has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Corbin Carroll has put up a .276 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Corbin Carroll has notched a .388 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 95th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Evan Longoria ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Evan Longoria is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Among all stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 10th-shallowest. Evan Longoria will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Evan Longoria has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last year's 90.9-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Among all stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 10th-shallowest. Alejandro Kirk will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tommy Henry in today's matchup. Alejandro Kirk will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Alejandro Kirk has been unlucky this year, posting a .282 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .337 — a .055 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Christian Walker is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. Among all stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 10th-shallowest. Christian Walker will hold the platoon advantage over Yusei Kikuchi today... and even better, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Ranking in the 83rd percentile, Christian Walker has posted a .359 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Matt Chapman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Chapman is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. Matt Chapman will hold the platoon advantage against Tommy Henry in today's game. Matt Chapman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Matt Chapman will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 79th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Among all stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 10th-shallowest. Santiago Espinal will have the handedness advantage against Tommy Henry today. Santiago Espinal will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. When it comes to his batting average, Santiago Espinal has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .257 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .269.

Among all stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 10th-shallowest. Nick Ahmed will hold the platoon advantage over Yusei Kikuchi in today's game... and even better, Kikuchi has a large platoon split.

Among all stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 10th-shallowest. Danny Jansen will have the handedness advantage against Tommy Henry today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Danny Jansen will hold that advantage today. Danny Jansen's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (21.3°) is quite a bit better than his 15° figure last season.

Among all stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 10th-shallowest. Carson Kelly will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi today... and even more favorably, Kikuchi has a large platoon split.

Yusei Kikuchi has gone over 4.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Geraldo Perdomo has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Emmanuel Rivera has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.