Toronto @ Chicago Picks & Props

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Matt Chapman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Chapman is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best ballpark in the game for righty batting average. Matt Chapman pulls many of his flyballs (33.6% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among every team on the slate today, the 6th-worst infield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox.

This contest is expected to have the 3rd-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Yusei Kikuchi will hold the platoon advantage against Andrew Benintendi today... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Kikuchi's large platoon split. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Toronto Blue Jays. Andrew Benintendi has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph dropping to 84.3-mph over the last 14 days. Andrew Benintendi's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 91.1-mph EV last year has fallen off to 88.1-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best ballpark in the game for righty batting average. Danny Jansen will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tanner Banks in today's game. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox. When it comes to his batting average, Danny Jansen has suffered from bad luck this year. His .214 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.

Whit Merrifield's batting average ability is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best ballpark in the game for righty batting average. Whit Merrifield has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 6th-worst infield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox. Over the past two weeks, Whit Merrifield's 26.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 78th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best ballpark in the game for righty batting average. Jake Burger will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's game... and moreover, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Jake Burger pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jake Burger will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest among all major league parks. Despite posting a .248 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Elvis Andrus has experienced some negative variance given the .051 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .299.

This contest is expected to have the 3rd-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Toronto Blue Jays. In the past week's worth of games, Tim Anderson's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 90.1 mph to 81.4 mph. Compared to his seasonal angle of 1.1°, Tim Anderson has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-2°) over the past 14 days. Tim Anderson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, decreasing from 14.8% to 8.1%.

This contest is expected to have the 3rd-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Toronto Blue Jays. Eloy Jimenez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 97.6-mph figure last season has dropped off to 93.7-mph. When it comes to plate discipline, Eloy Jimenez's skill is quite weak, posting a 3.64 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 23rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best stadium in the majors for LHB batting average. Tanner Banks will have the handedness advantage over Daulton Varsho in today's game. Daulton Varsho pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.5% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 6th-worst infield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox. Daulton Varsho's launch angle this year (18°) is a significant increase over his 14.5° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin Kiermaier in the 81st percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best stadium in the majors for LHB batting average. Dingers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest among all stadiums. Tanner Banks will have the handedness advantage against Kevin Kiermaier in today's matchup. Among every team on the slate today, the 6th-worst infield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Luis Robert is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best ballpark in the game for righty batting average. Dingers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest among all stadiums. Luis Robert will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's game... and the cherry on top, Kikuchi has a large platoon split.

This contest is expected to have the 3rd-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. George Springer will hold the platoon advantage against Tanner Banks today. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for George Springer in today's game. George Springer has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 8.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Andrew Vaughn is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best ballpark in the game for righty batting average. Andrew Vaughn will have the handedness advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's game... and even better, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Andrew Vaughn has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Belt in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Brandon Belt is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best stadium in the majors for LHB batting average. Tanner Banks will have the handedness advantage over Brandon Belt in today's game. Brandon Belt pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest among all major league parks. Cavan Biggio has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 7% rate last year to 15.7% this year. Cavan Biggio has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.9-mph average to last year's 89.3-mph average. Compared to last year, Cavan Biggio has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 20.3% to 27.7% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best ballpark in the game for righty batting average. Dingers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest among all stadiums. Zach Remillard will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's game... and even more favorably, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Zach Remillard will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best ballpark in the game for righty batting average. Dingers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest among all stadiums. The switch-hitting Yasmani Grandal will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Yusei Kikuchi... and even better, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Yasmani Grandal will hold that advantage in today's game. Yasmani Grandal's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 40.8% to 46.3%.

Gavin Sheets has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Bo Bichette has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.