Boston @ Toronto Picks & Props

15% of the time that Jarren Duran has started against a northpaw this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter. Rogers Centre projects as the #27 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. In the last two weeks, Jarren Duran's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%. Jarren Duran's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, decreasing from 11.7% on the season to 0% in the last week.

Rogers Centre projects as the #27 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Masataka Yoshida will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Masataka Yoshida has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past week. Masataka Yoshida's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 92.5-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 83.5-mph in the last week. Masataka Yoshida's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, going from 12.7% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 75%. Rafael Devers will hold the platoon advantage over Jose Berrios today. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 75%. David Hamilton will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios today. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so David Hamilton stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Rogers Centre projects as the #27 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast projects the 5th-best pitching conditions of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Alex Verdugo will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Alex Verdugo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, decreasing from 14.6% on the season to 0% in the past 7 days. Alex Verdugo has been cold of late, compiling a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. George Springer is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 75%. George Springer will hold the platoon advantage against James Paxton today.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 75%. Triston Casas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios today. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Triston Casas can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Triston Casas's average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 91.5-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 89.3-mph over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 75%. Alejandro Kirk will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against James Paxton in today's matchup.

Christian Arroyo's batting average ability is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 75%. Christian Arroyo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Over the past week, Christian Arroyo's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.7%. As it relates to his batting average, Christian Arroyo has had bad variance on his side this year. His .239 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .264.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 75%. Daulton Varsho will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. There has been a significant improvement in Daulton Varsho's launch angle from last year's 14.5° to 18° this season. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.249) provides evidence that Daulton Varsho has experienced some negative variance this year with his .224 actual batting average.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 75%.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Matt Chapman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Chapman is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 75%. Matt Chapman will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton today. Matt Chapman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Whit Merrifield in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 75%. Whit Merrifield will hold the platoon advantage against James Paxton in today's game. Whit Merrifield will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Justin Turner ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Justin Turner is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 75%. Justin Turner hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the last two weeks, Justin Turner's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.4-mph over the course of the season to 94.8-mph recently.

Santiago Espinal's batting average talent is projected to be in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 75%. Santiago Espinal will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton in today's matchup. Santiago Espinal will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 75%. Danny Jansen will have the handedness advantage over James Paxton today. Danny Jansen will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Danny Jansen has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph to 93.1-mph in the last week.

Adam Duvall has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Bo Bichette has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Kevin Kiermaier has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Brandon Belt has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Enrique Hernandez has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.