The Champions League Round of 16 kicks off with first-leg action on Tuesday and Wednesday.
That slate includes a massive matchup between Real Madrid and Man City, and with Kylian Mbappe sidelined, our Champions League picks are siding with the visitors at Bernabeu.
UEFA Champions League weekly picks and best bets for Round of 16 (Leg 1)
Newcastle vs Barcelona
Newcastle draw no bet (+110 at Sports Interaction)
Newcastle United are a lowly 12th in the Premier League table. Their mid-table position has little relevance, however, because England’s top division is so strong.
Eddie Howe’s hosts lost 2-1 at home to the same Barcelona on Matchday 1 of the group phase, but have since won four straight Champions League games at St James’ Park (11 goals scored, two conceded). They also secured a 1-1 tie at tournament holders PSG in January.
With Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, and Robert Lewandowski set to star, Barcelona will be no pushovers, but the English underdogs can avoid defeat.
- Date: Tuesday, March 10
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Location: St. James' Park, Newcastle, England
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Atalanta vs Bayern Munich
Atalanta team total Over 1.5 (+170 at Sports Interaction)
Winning against mighty Bayern Munich may be beyond Atalanta; scoring twice may not.
Atalanta have scored 2+ goals in 12 of their 14 games in all competitions since Raffaele Palladino was named their manager in November. This run includes good scoring performances in Europe: they beat Chelsea 2-1 (Dec 9), lost 2-3 to Athletic Bilbao (Jan 21), and thrashed Bayern’s Bundesliga rivals Borussia Dortmund 4-1 in the playoff round (Feb 25).
Bayern have conceded two goals in two of their last three matches, meaning they arrive with defensive concerns.
- Date: Tuesday, March 10
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Location: New Balance Arena, Bergamo, Italy
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal
Arsenal -1 (+145 at Sports Interaction)
Arsenal are Europe’s strongest side and should win comfortably.
They topped the Champions League group phase table with a perfect 8-0-0 record (23 goals scored, four conceded). And their away form should make Bayer Leverkusen fearful.
Arsenal won all four of their away games during the group phase by 2+ goals: 2-0 at Athletic Bilbao (Sep 16), 3-0 at Slavia Prague (Nov 4), 3-0 at Club Brugge (Dec 10), and 3-1 at Inter Milan (Jan 20). And it's worth remembering Bayer Leverkusen lost 7-2 at home to PSG in October.
By backing Arsenal on the 3-way spread, you'll profit if the Gunners win by 2+ goals.
- Date: Wednesday, March 11
- Time: 1:45 p.m. ET
- Location: BayArena, Leverkusen, Germany
- Where to watch: Paramount+
PSG vs Chelsea
Chelsea team total Over 1.5 (+160 at Sports Interaction)
PSG’s defense is leaking goals, and Chelsea can take advantage.
The Champions League holders conceded twice in both legs of their 5-4 aggregate playoff round win vs. Monaco (2-2 home, 3-2 away). They then gave up three goals against the same Monaco side in Ligue 1 last Friday (3-1 loss).
We saw the same pattern during the fall: in successive Champions League home games last November, PSG conceded twice (2-1 loss) vs. Bayern Munich and three times (5-3 win) vs. Tottenham Hotspur.
In their last away game in the tournament, Chelsea won 3-2 at Napoli. A similarly positive approach should reap rewards.
- Date: Wednesday, March 11
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Parc des Princes, Paris, France
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Real Madrid vs Man City
Man City to win (+100 at Sports Interaction)
Man City were 2-1 victors when these sides met at the Santiago Bernabeu during the group phase three months ago. The same outcome is likely this week.
The English away team has won eight of their last 10 fixtures (8-0-2) in all competitions. They rested some players for their FA Cup fixture at Newcastle United (3-1 win) at the weekend. And they have far better team news than the hosts.
The Real Madrid treatment room is packed. Brazil striker Rodrygo recently joined Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe on the ‘out of action’ list. With so many important players absent for the hosts, back the visitors.
- Date: Wednesday, March 11
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Bernabeau, Madrid, Spain
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Champions League player prop quick hits for Round of 16 (Leg 1)
Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham
Julian Alvarez anytime goalscorer (+120 at Sports Interaction)
Julian Alvarez is Atletico Madrid’s joint-top scorer in the Champions League (five goals) this season. He scored against Club Brugge, PSV Eindhoven, Inter Milan, Union Saint-Gilloise, and Eintracht Frankfurt.
He has the same number of goals as Alexander Sorloth yet is available at a higher price (Sorloth is -115 to score). He's also a higher price than Antoine Griezmann (-111), even though the former France international has only one goal.
If you are looking for a player pick, Alvarez is the smart selection.
Real Madrid vs Man City
Vinicius Junior and Erling Haaland both 2+ shots on target (+333 at Sports Interaction)
Injured trio Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo, and Kylian Mbappe will not feature in the Real Madrid lineup. With those three players missing, there will be even more responsibility placed on Brazil star Vinicius Junior to pose a goalscoring threat from his left-wing starting position.
Erling Haaland has scored seven goals in the Champions League this season (at a rate of a goal every 88 minutes). He's managed three shots on target in three of his four appearances away from home, including in the group phase game at Real Madrid in December.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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