Crunch time has arrived in the Champions League group phase. There are three rounds of games to go, and the final matchday before Christmas takes place this week.
Teams outside the Top 24 — the qualifying positions — are under pressure to collect points, while elite teams looking to gain automatic entry into the Round of 16 (rather than going through the knockout phase playoffs) are battling to land a Top 8 spot.
I have you covered for Matchday 6 action with my UEFA Champions League best bets.
UEFA Champions League weekly picks and best bets for Matchday 6
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Marseille
Marseille moneyline (+135 at Sports Interaction)
Marseille head into this round of matches under considerable pressure. Last season’s Ligue 1 runner-ups are only 21st in the standings after picking up just six points from their opening five fixtures (2-0-3).
L’OM have had some rotten luck along the way, though, and are the better of these two sides. Union Saint Gilloise have suffered three big defeats against Newcastle United, Inter, and Atletico Madrid, and have weaker players than the visitors in most areas of the pitch.
With their backs against the wall, I expect Marseille to deliver. The plus-money price is worth taking.
- Date: Tuesday, December 9
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Lotto Park, Anderlecht, Belgium
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Inter Milan vs Liverpool
Over 2.5 goals (-154 at Sports Interaction)
With this selection, the stats are strongly in your favour.
Seven of these teams’ combined 10 Champions League group outings have had Over 2.5 goals (average 3.3 per game). The same is also true of nine of Inter’s 14 Serie A games, and 10 of Liverpool’s 15 EPL games.
In other words, 26 out of 39 matches that matter (excluding domestic cup competitions) have featured three or more goals.
Liverpool (13th) are below where they want to be and will likely take an attacking approach as they attempt to make up ground. The Reds’ urgency for points is another reason to expect goals.
- Date: Tuesday, December 9
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, Italy
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Tottenahm vs Slavia Prague
Tottenham -1.5 (+110 at Sports Interaction)
Tottenham are a much better side than Slavia Prague and should make their superiority count.
Thomas Frank’s side have won two out of two at home in the Champions League this season: they beat Villarreal 1-0 on September 16 and Copenhagen 4-0 on November 4.
The hosts are good enough to win by at least two goals. Slavia Prague are winless (0-3-2) and have suffered two sizable losses to Inter and Tottenham’s North London rivals Arsenal — 3-0 at home.
- Date: Tuesday, December 9
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Atalanta vs Chelsea
Chelsea moneyline (+105 at Sports Interaction)
Chelsea and Atalanta are tied on 10 points in the UCL group table and have identical 3-1-1 records. Despite the impression those stats give, Chelsea are the better side and should win.
Let’s not forget Enzo Maresca’s side became Club World Cup champions when they beat PSG 3-1 in the New Jersey final last July. In recent weeks, they've thrashed Barcelona 3-0 in the Champions League and taken points off an Arsenal side generally considered Europe’s strongest right now in the Prem.
On the only previous occasion Atalanta faced elite opposition this season, they lost 4-0 at PSG. It's hard to see the Serie A hosts matching the visitors.
- Date: Tuesday, December 9
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: New Balance Arena, Bergamo, Italy
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Benfica vs Napoli
Napoli +0.5 (-163 at Sports Interaction)
Surprisingly, Napoli are such big outsiders to win this week.
Benfica are a dismal 1-0-4 in five Champions League group games, yet the Portuguese hosts are +130 favorites to earn all three points. Benfica’s price is the market’s way of saying the Lisbon-based players have a 44% chance of claiming victory.
Napoli are +220 to win. They have a 2-1-2 UCL group-stage record, though an early red card played a key role in one of their defeats.
Benfica are solid rather than outstanding opposition. The visitors’ chances of avoiding defeat are underrated.
- Date: Wednesday, December 10
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Estadio da Luz, Lisbon, Portugal
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Champions League player prop quick hits for Matchday 6
Real Madrid vs Manchester City
Erling Haaland 2+ shots on target (-111 at Sports Interaction)
Real Madrid are +145 to win, Manchester City +155. I prefer the visitors, especially in light of Real Madrid’s dismal 2-0 Liga home defeat to Celta Vigo on Sunday night.
An even better selection would be to back Erling Haaland to manage two or more shots on target. The Norwegian striker has managed exactly three shots on target in three of the four Champions League group phase games he has started.
Athletic Bilbao vs PSG
Joao Neves 1+ shot on target (+155 at Sports Interaction)
Joao Neves has managed a shot on target in only one of the three Champions League group games he has started this season.
Yet his ability to hit the target is better than that record indicates: he scored twice at the World Club Cup last summer, and has netted six combined Champions League and Ligue 1 goals this season at a rate of a goal every 135 minutes.
The plus-money price on the 21-year-old midfielder is bigger than I expected, so take it while you can.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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