UEFA Champions League Picks and Best Bets for Knockout Phase 1

James Eastham breaks down Champions League action for the first leg of the playoffs this week, with analysis of several games, including Monaco vs. PSG and Club Brugge vs. Atletico Madrid.

James Eastham – Betting Analyst at Covers.com
James Eastham • Betting Analyst
Feb 16, 2026 • 08:41 ET • 4 min read
Ademola Lookman Atletico Madrid Champions League
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Ademola Lookman of Atletico de Madrid during the Copa del Rey match with FC Barcelona.

The Champions League playoffs take place over two legs. The first are on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, while the return fixtures follow on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

The 16 participating teams are vying to reach the Round of 16. At that point, the winners of the playoff ties will join the eight clubs that finished in the top eight slots of the group phase.

Representatives from 11 different European leagues are in action this week. Among them are some big names, such as PSG, Real Madrid, and Juventus (all of whom feature below).

UEFA Champions League weekly picks and best bets for Knockout Phase 1

Galatasaray vs Juventus

Over 2.5 (-122 at Sports Interaction)

Juventus’ games guarantee scoring. It is partly by design, as manager Luciano Spalletti encourages his players to press forward, and partly an inevitable consequence of the side’s strengths and weaknesses: La Vecchia Signora are packed with in-form attackers while being error-prone in defense.

Five of Juventus’ last six games in all competitions have had three or more goals. As they look to gain a first-leg advantage in Istanbul, they will take risks.

Given how the game is likely to unfold, the Over is the smart selection.

  • Date: Tuesday, February 17
  • Time: 12:45 p.m. ET
  • Location: RAMS Park, Istanbul, Turkey
  • Where to watch: Paramount+

Benfica vs Real Madrid

Real Madrid moneyline (-108 at Sports Interaction)

These sides faced off on the eighth and final matchday of the group phase. On that occasion, Real Madrid were -139 to win and took a 1-0 lead thanks to a goal by Kylian Mbappe. Benfica mounted a remarkable comeback and won 4-2, as the increasingly fractious visitors had two players sent off in added time.

Just three weeks later, Real return, seeking revenge. Expect better from them this time: they have won three out of three in La Liga since that 4-2 loss on their last trip to Lisbon, and normally find form at this time of year.

  • Date: Tuesday, February 17
  • Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Estádio da Luz, Lisbon, Portugal
  • Where to watch: Paramount+

Monaco vs PSG

PSG -1.5 (+135 at Sports Interaction)

This all-Ligue 1 clash pits Sebastien Pocognoli’s inconsistent hosts against the tournament holders. PSG have rarely played as well in 2025-26, as they did en route to lifting the Champions League trophy last June, but this fixture against opponents they know well will suit Luis Enrique’s visitors.

PSG are six places and 20 points ahead of Monaco in Ligue 1. They have good team news, as Spanish midfielder Fabian Ruiz is their only regular who will miss this match. Plus, Ballon d’Or holder Ousmane Dembele, who is +100 to score, is in match-winning form (eight goals in his last eight starts across all competitions).

  • Date: Tuesday, February 17
  • Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Stade Louis II, Monaco, France
  • Where to watch: Paramount+

Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta

Draw (+270 at Sports Interaction)

Borussia Dortmund’s Signal Iduna Park is regarded as one of  Europe’s most intimidating venues for visiting sides. Niko Kovac’s hosts are in good form (W8-D3-L2 from their last 13 games in all competitions).

Yet Atalanta are good enough to avoid defeat. They finished two points above Dortmund in the group phase (13 vs. 11), and have improved dramatically since Raffael Palladino was appointed manager in November, winning 13 of 20 games in all competitions under the ex-Fiorentina boss.

Atalanta have the form, competence, and confidence to avoid defeat.

  • Date: Tuesday, February 17
  • Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Signal Iduna Park, Aue, Germany
  • Where to watch: Paramount+

Bodo/Glimt vs Inter Milan

Inter Milan moneyline (-143 at Sports Interaction)

Bodo/Glimt are the first Norwegian side to reach this stage of the competition in nearly three decades. Snow blowers have had to clear the home team’s artificial pitch after heavy falls of the white stuff, and the temperature will be below freezing at kickoff.

Yet Inter have the skills and toughness to win. They were an excellent W3-D0-L1 on the road during the group phase and have won 11 of their last 13 games across all competitions (failing to beat only Arsenal and Napoli, much better sides than this week's opponents).

Bodo lost two of their four Champions League group phase home fixtures (vs. Juventus and Monaco), undermining the theory that their venue is a tricky place to visit.

  • Date: Wednesday, February 18
  • Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt, Norway
  • Where to watch: Paramount+
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Champions League player prop quick hits for Round of 16

Monaco vs PSG

Simon Adringra 1+ shots on target (-133 at Sports Interaction)

Ivory Coast international Simon Adingra arrived on loan at Monaco from English Premier League club Sunderland earlier this month. In his new colours, he has managed three shots on target from 211 minutes on the pitch in all competitions. He scored twice in Monaco’s 3-1 win vs. Nantes last weekend. Right now, he is his side’s most dangerous attacker.

Club Brugge vs Atletico Madrid

Ademola Lookman anytime goal (+265 at Sports Interaction)

Nigeria international Ademola Lookman has had an instant, positive impact since joining ‘Atleti’ from Serie A’s Atalanta at the start of the month. In 250 minutes, he has scored twice and delivered two assists. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone has deep attacking options, so Lookman is not sure to start. If he does, he will pose a threat.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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James Eastham
Betting Analyst

James Eastham has worked as a soccer betting writer and tipster for more than two decades, providing content for leading publications such as The Guardian, Betfair, and ESPN.

Based in France and the UK, his specialist areas of knowledge are the major European soccer leagues (France's Ligue 1, Italy's Serie A, Spain's La Liga) and European club tournaments (Champions League, Europa League, Conference League). He also covers leading international competitions (World Cup, European Championship, Africa Cup of Nations) whenever they come around. He believes firmly in stake management, recording all bets, and a focus on long-term growth.

Alongside his betting content, he has worked as a features writer and interviewer for mainstream soccer print and online publications. For 10 years, he also worked as a talent scout, analyzing matches and players across Europe for professional soccer clubs.

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