Real Madrid welcome Napoli to the Stadio Bernabeu on Wednesday, in what our Champions League odds predict will be one of the more entertaining fixtures of Matchday 5.
Real Madrid seek a point that would see them secure first place in Group C, having won their first four matches with a +6 goal differential. They’ve conceded just three goals in that span, although two came in their trip to Napoli on Matchday 2.
Their growing injury list gives Carlo Ancelotti some lineup selection concerns, but he can rely on Jude Bellingham to create no matter who plays around him.
Walter Mazzarri will manage Napoli in the competition for the first time since taking over for Rudi Garcia, who was sacked after just a couple months in charge. The reigning Serie A champions sit fourth in the league and are second in the group stage behind Madrid. However, their qualification is not guaranteed, and they’ll want to secure their passage with a victory.
Our free betting picks for Real Madrid vs. Napoli dive into why that’s unlikely to happen, even with the impressive list of players the Spanish side will be missing.
Real Madrid vs Napoli best odds
Real Madrid vs Napoli picks and predictions
Many teams perform better at home than away, but what Real Madrid has done the past two months is beyond impressive. Despite numerous injuries at both ends of the pitch, the Spanish giants have conceded just once in their last six matches at the Stadio Bernabeu.
That lone goal came in their last home fixture a few weeks ago on an 88th-minute goal with them holding a 5-0 lead. It was also the first goal allowed by Andriy Lunin, Madrid’s third-string keeper.
Lunin has been terrific in goal, deputizing due to the injuries to Thibaut Courtois and Kepa Arrizabalaga. He kept a clean sheet against Braga in their last Champions League outing, and another this weekend against Cadiz. And in the match against Braga, he also came up with a penalty save.
Now Madrid welcomes Napoli, a side they edged out in a 3-2 thriller in early October. Napoli opened the scoring with a headed corner before conceding twice in the first half — including a brilliant individual goal from Bellingham. Napoli got a penalty in the second half, but Fedo Valverde’s stunning strike on 78 minutes came off the bar and hit the keeper for a winning own goal.
Madrid bossed the midfield in that match. And while they’ll be without key pieces including Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni, there’s more than enough depth and quality to do so again.
Napoli’s only match so far under Mazzarri was a 2-1 win at the weekend over Atalanta, which oddly enough kept them unbeaten away in all competitions. They’ve won seven of their nine fixtures outside Naples, including Champions League victories over Braga and Union Berlin.
However, both of those wins came by a single goal, and the win over Union Berlin saw them manage just one effort on goal. While their attack will be boosted by this weekend’s cameo from Victor Osimhen, it won’t be enough against a Madrid team that is seeking a 10th straight win over Italian foes.
Real Madrid’s last home defeat came in last season’s Champions League semifinal, the only time they’ve failed to win in their last nine at home in the competition. As long as they have Jude Bellingham pulling the strings, I’m not betting on that streak ending.
My best bet: Real Madrid moneyline (-116 at TonyBet)
Bet on soccer at TonyBet
One of Canada’s favourite sportsbooks for soccer, join TonyBet, which offers a 100% deposit match (up to $350) for new bettors!
Not available in Ontario.
Real Madrid vs Napoli same-game parlay
I was fortunate enough to have attended the fixture between these sides in Naples and witnessed the frenetic energy with which both teams played.
Neither team wants to sit back, and with attacking weapons on both sides — despite the absence of Vinicius Jr for the hosts — it’s highly unlikely either side maintains a clean sheet.
One of the key players in that first match was Bellingham, whose individual goal to give Madrid a 2-1 lead was breathtaking to watch. He’s proving to be worth every dollar spent on him this summer, and he’s scored in all three of his Champions League starts this season.
We’ll play it safe here and take him to score or assist, each of which he did against Napoli already. Combine these plays with Real Madrid to win and head over to bet365 for a same-game parlay that will triple your stake with a victory.
Real Madrid vs Napoli side and Over/Under analysis
Since the line opened three weeks ago, the public has swung a slight bit towards Napoli. Don’t get me wrong, Madrid are still substantial favorites on the 3-way line with nobody offering them at better than -115, but they were closer to -150 prior to the injuries to Vinicius Jr. and their French midfield duo.
Napoli can now be had at +325, having been on offer as high as +385 previously. The draw has come down slightly to +290 as well.
While Napoli doesn’t have the fitness concerns of their hosts, they are without leftback Mario Rui. Should Mathias Olivera be unavailable following his first-half injury substitution at the weekend, it could see Juan Jesus playing there. He’s a centerback who could have his hands full dealing with Rodrygo drifting wide.
There were five goals scored in the reverse fixture, and there easily could have been more. With Osimhen returning, it’s no surprise the public is on the Over 2.5 here with -141 being the best price on offer.
I’m all in on the Over here, but I’m taking the Over 2.75 at -110 instead on the Asian market. I nearly gave it out as my best bet, but I have a Madrid win slightly higher in probability and wanted to protect against Napoli perhaps playing a bit more reserved under new management.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Real Madrid vs Napoli game info
|Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid, ESP
|Wednesday, November 29, 2023
|3:00 p.m. ET
|Temp: 54 F, Wind chill: 48 F, POP: 47%, Humidity: 98%, Winds: 9 mph
Real Madrid vs Napoli key injuries
Real Madrid: Vinicius Jr. (Out), Eder Militao D (Out), Thibaut Courtois GK (Out).
Napoli: Mario Rui D (Out), Mathias Olivera D (Questionable), Jesper Lindstrom F (Out).