Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich Predictions and Picks for Wednesday's Champions League Match

A place in the Champions League final is on the line and with the teams tied at 2-2, it's all to play for. Our soccer expert believes the difference in this fixture will be Madrid's winning pedigree. Find out why below!

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
May 8, 2024 • 12:06 ET • 4 min read
Jude Bellingham Real Madrid La Liga
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Real Madrid host Bayern Munich today with the winner booking a spot in the Champions League final. The first leg finished 2-2 which means it's all to play for at the Bernabeu in Madrid. 

It's the biggest game of the week and our Real Madrid vs. Bayern predictions fancy the hosts as we offer our free betting picks for this fixture. 

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich picks and predictions

My best bet:
Real Madrid moneyline (-109 at TonyBet)

My analysis

Wednesday’s Champions League semi-final between two genuine European heavyweights is a mouth-watering clash and one that gets every soccer fan excited. The first leg finished 2-2 with Vinicius Junior levelling it from the penalty spot as time was winding down. However, for the most part, it was Bayern who were the better side, with more shots, more on target, and more possession. Now the second leg sees a return to Spain and it’s a game that both will have confidence in winning, however, it’s Real Madrid, at -109, who offers the most value.

This past weekend we saw Real Madrid seal the La Liga title with a win over Cadiz. They managed to rest some players in doing so, keeping their squad fresh while also sealing the domestic crown. They’ve been the best team in La Liga by a margin this season as evidenced by two El Clasico wins over Barcelona.

Those El Clasico wins also demonstrate one of the other reasons to back Real: they win important games. In those games, and countless others this season, they’ve managed to win when needed, even if things were going against them. This is a team who have been mentally strong throughout previous seasons but new signings such as Jude Bellingham appear to have instantly added yet more layers of confidence to this team.

On the opposite side, you have Bayern Munich who are second in the Bundesliga, with Leverkusen winning the league weeks ago. They’ve still looked impressive at times and the goals of Harry Kane have continued to pick them up wins, but they’re not a team who have shone at the most difficult moments and you simply can’t trust them to be clutch.

Madrid has won the European Cup on 14 occasions, four times in the past decade, with a number of those players still at the club, especially from the 2022 UCL winning team. This is a team of winners, who come into this in good form and who should have enough to get the job done.

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Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich same-game parlay (SGP)

Real Madrid moneyline

Jude Bellingham to score

Joshua Kimmich Over 0.5 fouls

In addition to the best bet, we’re also backing Real’s star man Jude Bellingham to score. The Englishman has already scored 18 La Liga goals and another four in this competition. He’s the team’s x-factor and so often this season, has scored crucial goals, including both El Clasico games. He’s scored two in his past three games and comes into this in good form.

We’ll also be backing Joshua Kimmich to commit Over 0.5 fouls. The versatile German will likely be deployed on the right side of the back four, which puts him one-on-one with Vinicius Junior. The Brazilian is quick, very direct, and very attacking. He’s been fouled on average twice per La Liga game and 1.1 times per Champions League game. With that in mind it’s likely his opposite number Kimmich will commit at least one foul on Wednesday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich odds

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich live odds

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich opening odds

  • Moneyline: Real Madrid -110 | Bayern Munich +260
  • Draw: +275
  • Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-175) | Under 2.5 (+125)

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich side and Over/Under analysis

  • Real Madrid are -109 favorites, with Bayern at +270 and the draw at +300
  • Over 2.5 goals is available at -167 with the Under at +142
  • The last six games between both sides in all competitions have finished with three or more goals

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich game info

Location: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid, Spain
Date: Wednesday, 5-8-2024
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Paramount+
Weather: Perfect playing conditions

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich key injuries

Real Madrid: Aurelien Tchoumeni CM (Questionable).
Bayern Munich: Kingsley Coman FWR (Out), Matthijs de Ligt CB (Questionable), Eric Dier CB (Questionable).

Not intended for use in MA.
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