Mexico vs Panama Picks and Predictions: Favorites In Control

A new champion will be crowned in the CONCACAF Gold Cup final when Mexico hosts Panama at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.

Mexico hopes to win their ninth crown, moving them two ahead of the United States for the most in the tournament’s history, and their fourth Gold Cup triumph in the last eight competitions. Meanwhile, Panama have reached the final twice before and have failed to score a goal, much less hoist the trophy, and they will be hoping to reverse those fortunes after their upset over the US.

Does Panama have enough firepower to get past El Tri, or will manager Jaime Lozano lead the Mexican side to silverware in his first tournament in charge? We discuss that and more in our Mexico vs Panama betting picks and predictions for the Gold Cup final, Sunday, July 16. 

Mexico vs Panama best odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 on July 14, 2023.

Mexico vs Panama picks and predictions

It’s surprising how much difference a few weeks can make in the game of soccer. This time last month, Mexico was in turmoil. They’d just suffered a CONCACAF Nations League semifinal defeat to the United States, a 3-0 performance in which they were embarrassed and completely lost their composure. The result cost manager Diego Cocca his job once the tournament ended, despite them winning the third-place match.

Enter Lozano. With the national team in shambles and the fan base seeing red, he’s taken Mexico to the Gold Cup final despite missing the majority of his “A” squad. And not only has he set them up to win matches, he’s done so in impressive fashion. Their 3-0 win over Jamaica in the semifinal was a comprehensive win in which they looked the dominant side from the opening whistle.

Their opponents haven’t looked dominant in any of their matches, but what they have been is organized. Panama hasn’t conceded a goal in regulation through their two knockout stage matches, as it took the United States 105 minutes to break through for an equalizer in the semifinal. And of the five goals they’ve allowed, four of them have come in the final minute of regulation or later. In other words, unless teams are desperately throwing numbers into the box, Panama have been able to hold teams at bay.

That said, the United States had plenty of opportunities to score in the semis  and wasted them. While they only had one or two high-quality chances, a better finish would’ve seen them through. With how they’re playing in this tournament, Mexico won’t waste those chances. That’s why I like them to win the match — but not at the price that requires.

Neither team is conceding a whole lot at the back, and Panama is likely to set up to try to eke out a narrow win like they did against the United States. That’s why I love the Under 2.5 — but again, not at the current price.

With sports betting, sometimes you get a match where you simply can’t find anything of value on its own, and have to get a bit creative to find a path to profit. That’s why our best bet for the Gold Cup final on Sunday between Mexico and Panama is a same-game parlay. 

Instead of laying the juice for a Mexico win on the 3-way line, or for the Under 2.5, let’s combine them. Nearly every site will give you at least +190 whether it’s a pre-built combo or one you build yourself, but the best price is at bet365 where you can get in at +220. I’ll gladly take that price over laying heavy juice for two outcomes with a high probability of coming to pass. 

My best bet: Mexico win and Under 2.5 goals same-game parlay (+220 at bet365)

Mexico vs Panama side analysis

The 3-way line sees Mexico favored to win in regulation, with -160 the best price you can get at the moment. Panama are decided underdogs with a price of +510 on offer for a win inside of 90 minutes, and the draw offers at solid +260 price. To win outright, regardless of how long it takes, Mexico is a whopping -350 favorite. 

Mexico has conceded just two goals through five matches, while putting 12 of their own into the back of the net. Their 1-0 defeat to Qatar can be excused, as they’d already clinched their group, but they’ve looked the best team throughout the tournament and their price reflects that. Their entire squad from the semifinal will be available for selection on Sunday.

Panama will also be at full strength with no injuries or suspensions to speak of. That’s good news for a side yet to lose in this tournament, and just a 2-2 draw with El Salvador blemishing their record. Only their win over Panama, a 4-0 result, saw them get by comfortably, but they’re a side that has shown they can stifle their opposition and scrap out a result. 

These two sides played in the Nations League third-place game, albeit with Mexico fielding a very different-looking side, and an early goal for Mexico was the only tally in a 1-0 victory. That was Mexico’s 11th win in the last 13 meetings between these sides, and I expect they’ll add another win on Sunday. 

Mexico vs Panama Over/Under analysis

Just like the 3-way line, there’s no doubt which side of the Total the public is on. Those wishing to play the Under 2.5 will be laying substantial juice with a price of -160 being the best you can get. The Over is paying a decent +130 price in contrast.

And in a vacuum looking at the recent results, I’d blame nobody for taking that price on the Over. Mexico’s five matches so far in the tournament have seen three Overs, with an average of 2.8 goals per contest. Panama’s matches have seen the exact same result inside of regulation, as the two goals in their semifinal came in extra time.

But looking at how they match up, the Under is the way to go. Panama are going to stay compact in defense much like they did against the US, and even if they fall behind early, they won’t make the same mistakes Jamaica did, attempting to chase the match right away. 

Mexico has tried to blitz their opponents out of the gate in this tournament, just as they did against Panama a month ago. It’s worked twice this tournament, with goals inside 120 seconds against Honduras and Jamaica. In matches where it hasn’t, it’s taken them until the second half to break through. Panama will be ready for it this time, and I expect we won’t see any scoring early here. That will make it easier for the Under to hit, which is why we’re taking it. 

Mexico vs Panama game info

Mexico vs Panama key injuries

Mexico: Erick Gutierrez M (Doubtful), Francisco Cordova M (Out).
Panama: None.

Mexico vs Panama weather

As the final is being played inside the beautiful SoFi Stadium, weather will have no impact on proceedings. 

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