Marseille vs PSG Picks and Predictions: Mbappe Makes His Mark on Le Classique

The Ligue 1 title race heats up this weekend as leaders PSG travel to second-place Marseille, who enter Sunday looking to close the five-point gap at the top.

Marseille have forced their way into the title conversation with an impressive run of results since the post-World Cup restart, losing just once in their last 12 games. A 3-2 win over Toulouse last weekend was the latest reminder that they’re a true contender.

This star-studded PSG side has been trending in the opposite direction lately and narrowly avoided a fourth straight loss on Sunday, with a late rally to beat Lille 4-3, capped off by Lionel Messi’s stoppage-time free kick. An injury to Neymar, however, makes him a doubt for this Le Classique battle.

Check out our free Marseille vs. PSG picks and predictions for a closer look at this huge Sunday, February 26 showdown.

Marseille vs PSG odds

Marseille vs PSG picks and predictions

This matchup feels like a coin flip, so I’m staying away from the moneyline and digging into the top player props instead, with the expectation that the attacking firepower will be the big story on Sunday.

While Alexis Sanchez scored twice in Marseille’s win over Clermont Foot two weeks ago and netted a penalty in their 2-1 French Cup victory over PSG earlier this month, I’m leaning towards the threat of Kylian Mbappe at plus odds to find the net this weekend. 

Messi’s match-winning free kick grabbed the headlines after PSG escaped against Lille, but Mbappe scored twice for the Ligue 1 leaders to set up that big finale. With 15 goals in 20 league appearances this season, the Frenchman could be even more of a focal point here if Neymar is ruled out.

Marseille are a steady team defensively, but some necessary reshuffling at the back makes the Mbappe odds even more enticing. With Chancel Mbemba suspended and fellow center-back Samuel Gigot in the treatment room, Eric Bailly will have the tough task of deputizing against the pace and movement of this PSG front line. Bailly, on loan from Manchester United, hasn’t started a league game for Marseille since January 2.

Mbappe didn’t get on the scoresheet at Stade Velodrome in the French Cup matchup, but I’ll be wagering on him to make amends on Sunday.

My best bet: Kylian Mbappe anytime goalscorer (+162 at bet365)

Marseille vs PSG side analysis

With a five-point gap to makeup, this is more of a must-win game for Marseille than the visitors. It’s a chance to crank up the pressure on a suddenly vulnerable PSG side, and Igor Tudor’s men are the form team here after four wins from their last five games, including that win over PSG in the French Cup. 

But, how do you count out PSG? The Messi-Mbappe combination is irresistible when they’re in the mood, and it’s telling that the visitors are still the slightest of favorites here despite patchy recent form.

PSG’s February has been rocky, with the disappointment of losing 1-0 at home in the first leg of their Champions League tie against Bayern Munich, as well as the cup loss to Marseille and a league setback against Monaco. Those results have increased the pressure on boss Christophe Galtier, amid rumors that the search for his replacement has begun.

Still, this is a chance for PSG to build a nice cushion at the top of Ligue 1, and the likely return of Brazil international Marquinhos would be a big boost defensively.

Marseille vs PSG Over/Under analysis

PSG aren’t just Ligue 1 leaders — they’re also the league’s top scorers (59) — but Marseille are no slouches, averaging two goals a game this season. While both teams have conceded less than a goal a game, I see the attackers dominating the latest installment of this famous rivalry.

The visitors’ attacking superstars are never far from the spotlight but don’t sleep on Marseille’s dynamic playmakers. Sanchez has rolled back the years to make a real impact in a central striker role while attacking midfielder Cengiz Under was on target at the weekend. The hosts have scored two or more goals in four of their last five games.

As expected, there’s not a lot of value in the BTTS odds, but the Over 3.5 total goals line is worth a look. PSG are fresh off a seven-goal thriller last weekend, and Marseille edged a five-goal battle with Toulouse.

Marseille vs PSG game info

Marseille vs PSG key injuries

Marseille: Amine Harit FW (Out), Samuel Gigot CB (Out), Chancel Mbemba CB (Out).
PSG: Marquinhos CB (Probable), Neymar ST (Questionable), Achraf Hakimi RB (Questionable), Nuno Mendes LB (Out), Renato Sanchez CM (Out).

Marseille vs PSG weather

Expect rainy conditions and a slick pitch in Marseille on Sunday, with temperatures dipping into the low 40s by kickoff.

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