Fresh off a flawless group stage performance, Japan have made their statement as an inner circle World Cup odds contender – but they’ll need to bring their A-game again in Wellington on Saturday to survive a Round of 16 clash with Norway.
With three wins, 11 goals scored and none conceded, the Japanese are off to a dream start, capped by a ruthless 4-0 demolition of a highly-rated Spain line-up to clinch top spot in Group C.
In contrast, Norway did it the hard way, collecting just a single point from their first two games but stamping their ticket for the knockout rounds thanks to a 6-0 victory over the Philippines on Sunday.
Read on for our free Japan vs Norway picks and predictions ahead of this Saturday August 5 showdown.
Japan vs Norway odds
 Japan |
 Norway |
|
|---|---|---|
| -125 | Moneyline | +350 |
| +260 | Draw | +260 |
| Over 2.5 (+115) | Total | Under 2.5 (-150) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 on August 4, 2023.
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Japan vs Norway picks and predictions
While there are cautionary tales around peaking too early, Japan have wasted no time finding their feet at this tournament, scoring at least twice in all three group games after netting five goals in a World Cup warm-up against Panama.
Their win over Spain sent shockwaves through the competition and, with Norway now in their path, I see the Japanese picking up where they left off that night, especially since they’re back at the Wellington Regional Stadium again this weekend.
Midfielder Hinata Miyazawa has led the way for the Nadeshiko with four goals, and they’ve made the most of their chances in each contest. Against Spain, Japan only had 23% of the possession but found the net with four of their five shots on target – and the 2011 World Cup winners have already had six different goalscorers through the first three games.
Sure, Norway haven’t given much away defensively at the tournament (two clean sheets in three games), but this is a big step up from their Group A opponents. There were shakier signs from the Norwegians earlier in the year against Europe’s top teams, with a 3-3 draw against Sweden and a 4-2 loss to Spain.
With Japan on a roll, I see one-way traffic this weekend and I’m taking these odds for their attacking stars to deliver another clinical outing.
My best bet: Japan Over 1.5 Goals (+100 Bet365)
Japan vs Norway same-game parlay
Japan Over 1.5 team total goals
Hinata Miyazawa Over 0.5 shots on target
Both teams to score - NO
A free-scoring Japan performance likely starts with more Miyazawa magic on the right side of the front three and she won’t need much hesitation to shoot given her prolific World Cup form. That’s a solid second leg for this SGP.
Though Norway released some of their frustration against the Philippines, they trudged through the group stage with a shock opening loss to New Zealand and tension over team selection. Japan’s defense has looked in command so far and I like the odds for another shutout here.
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Japan vs Norway side and Over/Under analysis
The game script is pretty clearly set up, with Japan installed as favorites and Norway sitting at +300 underdogs. Knockout soccer is full of surprises, but the formbook makes a compelling case for a Japanese win after their domination of Group C.
Though a hat-trick from Sophie Roman-Haug dragged Norway into the Last 16, the drama around Caroline Graham-Hansen’s role in the team lingers – she returned against the Philippines after being benched for their second group game.
On top of that, there’s uncertainty over Ada Hegerberg’s fitness after Norway’s star striker missed the last two contests with a groin injury. That’s another stressful storyline ahead of their toughest test so far.
Japan won 4-1 in the last meeting between these teams back in 2018, and there’s every reason to think they’ll have the upper hand again on Saturday. But the Over/Under is a tricky call. I’ve already jumped on the odds for Japan to continue their red hot scoring form, but it’s tough to know what to expect from this erratic Norwegian side.
On their day, Norway could turn this into a goalfest – it just feels like taking the Over on 2.5 total goals could be a nail-biter.
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Japan vs Norway game info
| Location: | Sky Stadium, Wellington, AU |
| Date: | Saturday, August 5, 2023 |
| Time: | 4:00 a.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX, TSN |
| Weather: | Dry, mostly cloudy conditions await the players in Wellington on Saturday, but it’ll be cool at kick-off with temperatures dipping into the 40s. |
Japan vs Norway key injuries
Japan: None to report.
Norway: Ada Hegerberg F (Questionable)
