Chelsea vs Arsenal Picks and Predictions: Blue Lions Take North West London Derby

There are four Premier League games on Wednesday but Chelsea vs. Arsenal is the one that stands out the most.

These two London clubs know each other well and it was only a month ago when Arsenal fans were looking at third-place Chelsea, thinking that they could overtake them. Fast forward, and now Arsenal are more worried about catching Tottenham who are currently in fourth place.

Don’t miss our Chelsea vs. Arsenal picks and predictions for Wednesday, April 20.

Chelsea vs Arsenal match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Chelsea vs Arsenal betting tips

• Prediction: Chelsea (-120)
• Prediction: Under 2.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Halftime Score: Chelsea 1-0 (+290)

Predictions made on 4/19/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Chelsea vs Arsenal game info

• Location: Stamford Bridge, London, England
• Date: Wednesday, April 20, 2022
• Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
• TV: USA Network, DAZN

Chelsea vs Arsenal betting preview

Weather

A cloudy day in London will see the game kick-off at 7:45 pm local time, with the temperature in the mid-50s.

Injuries

Chelsea: Mateo Kovacic CM (Out), Ben Chilwell LB (Out), Callum Hudson-Odoi FW (Out), Ross Barkley CM (Questionable).
Arsenal: Thomas Partey DM (Out), Kieran Tierney LB (Out), Alexandre Lacazette STR (Questionable), Takehiro Tomiyasu RB (Questionable).

Chelsea vs Arsenal predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Side analysis

The pick of Wednesday’s four Premier League games sees Chelsea welcome Arsenal to Stamford Bridge. When war broke out in Ukraine, it forced Roman Abramovich into selling the West London club, something which gave Arsenal hope of not only catching but also overtaking their London rivals.

That never happened and the gap currently sits at eight points with the Spurs sandwiched between the two clubs in the fourth spot. Despite all the noise, Thomas Tuchel has kept his Chelsea team focused.

They may have been eliminated from the Champions League at the hands of Real Madrid, but their second leg performance only helped galvanize the club and showed their fighting spirit. They’ve won four of their past five in the Premier League and they look set to hold onto the third spot.

Arsenal, in stark contrast, have lost four of their past five, allowing the Spurs to take control of the battle for the fourth spot and qualification into next season’s Champions League. Perhaps even worse than that, it’s emboldened the boo boys and those who doubted Mikel Arteta previously are now making their voices heard once again.

Arteta will set his team out in a 4-2-3-1, but the major point of interest is whether Alexandre Lacazette will be back, having missed the last game following a positive test. Lacazette has a terrible scoring record this season, but the team is better with him in it and he also brings other attackers into play.

If the Frenchman is unable to play then Eddie Nketiah might keep his spot up top. He’ll play in front of any three from Gabriel Martinelli, Martin Odegaard, Emile Smith-Rowe, or Bukayo Saka.

The absentees have left big holes with Thomas Partey and his replacement Albert Sambi Lokonga being a huge drop-off in talent, as is the difference at fullback with both Kieran Tierney and Takehiro Tomiyasu likely out.

Chelsea have played well of late with their defense really showing up. Reece James has been exceptional at RWB, as has Marcus Alonso on the opposite flank. Even more impressive have been those in the middle of the backline, with Thiago Silva showcasing why he’s been so successful through his career and Antonio Rudiger ascending as one of the best in the world.

Tuchel’s team has won six of their past seven in the Premier League. Over the weekend, the club beat Crystal Palace to secure a place in the FA Cup and that feel-good atmosphere will continue to drive the club forward, offering a contrast to the atmosphere in North London for Arsenal.

Chelsea should win this game and Mason Mount, in particular, could thrive with the Englishman quietly having a sensational season. He’ll be finding spaces between Granit Xhaka and Lokonga and the backline.

With 13 goals and 14 assists for club and country, it’s clear that Mount is equally adapt as a finisher or creator, and Arsenal will need to mark him out of this game if they’re going to have a chance to win.

With Chelsea in brilliant form, they’re a good bet to continue that on Wednesday and are well worth the wager at -120.

Prediction: Chelsea (-120 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

If you study Chelsea’s play at home across the whole season, you’ll notice that they’ve been involved in games with Over 2.5 goals in exactly 50% of those fixtures.

Look a little closer though, and you can see that in recent times things have tightened up with four of their last six matches at Stamford Bridge seeing Under 2.5 goals.

Chelsea doesn’t need to be scared of Arsenal, who have somehow just scored two goals in their past five games, especially when Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in five of their past seven Premier League games.

Take Under 2.5 goals here, it’s the smartest play and I’m pretty confident that it should cash.

Prediction: Under 2.5 (-110 at bet365)

Best bet

Odds of -120 on Chelsea winning this game are incredibly tempting, especially when Arsenal comes into this contest having lost three in a row, while Chelsea have won six of their past seven in the Premier League.

Another stat that really leaps out is that Arsenal have been losing at halftime and full-time in each of their past three games. It certainly wouldn’t be a shock to see that continue, which makes then +290 odds on Chelsea winning 1-0 at halftime look so appealing.

Pick: Halftime Score: Chelsea 1-0 (+290 at DraftKings)

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