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Guaranteeing a Win in Extreme Minus Pool

Forum: Horse Racing
Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Guaranteeing a Win in Extreme Minus Pool
fastbreaker PM fastbreaker
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 38
 
fastbreaker
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Posted: 2/19/2019 5:24:47 PM
very interesting (to me).it's very rare but it does happen.  found a 1995 column by Andrew Beyer claiming you can guarantee a win in a minus show pool when the big horse has 96.6% (my calculation) of the money in the pool bet on it.

a couple of points:

because of the change to net pool pricing from standard pool pricing when the article was written the bettor gains.  in Beyer's article the other 2 horses only paid $2.10 when the big horse showed.  Bellafina created a minus pool at Santa Anita on 2/9, she showed and the other 2 horses paid $2.40 and $3.20 because of net pool pricing.

But the more interesting point is that Beyer is actually wrong.  You can't guarantee a win because if 2 horses are longshots in the show pool and they don't come in you may not have a profit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1995/10/03/heavy-bets-offer-a-little-show-and-tell/e1b7679e-4200-44f6-abe6-573696a9db26/?utm_term=.14ad211178db
Forum: Horse Racing
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