Daviddaman24's Thursday Plays (With analysis)

Those records are current through Wednesday with only my Oregon play remaining. 

Thursday Plays:

Miami (FL) -3 - The key to this one for Miami will be the edge they have down low. Simply put Virginia has next to nothing in the way of big men. Their leading rebounder Sene averages a little over 5 a game and Harris averages slightly over 4 per contest aside from that nobody gets more then 3 a game. Miami should beat the death on the glass. Johnson should dominate down low and Virginia will have no answer for him. If he stays out of foul trouble he could sleep walk to a double double. I also give Miami a pretty clear edge on the perimeter with Grant and Scott over Farrakhan and Harris. Both Grant and Scott have decent Asst/TO ratios and take care of the ball much better then Farrakhan and Harris who are a mess with the ball and sport as bad of Asst/TO ratios as you'll find among division 1 guards. I just don't see anywhere that Virginia can exploit or take advantage of the Canes in this one. 

I can't buy the "packed it in" argument for an 18-13 team... that's something you'd be more likely to see from a 10-21 team or something like that. Miami has plenty of basketball left this season. The ACC tournament of course starting tomorrow and likely the NIT after that. 

did you see baylor today?

Yes I did... Miami is not Baylor though.

Baylor had a ton of talent and under-achieved all season long. Late in the regular season it became obvious they weren't going dancing and they became deflated at that point. Throw in their best player being out tonight and they really were just in self pity mode. Tons of talent, and goals not met is a good recipe for packing it in. This one shouldn't have been too shocking. 

Totally different story for Miami, they never had any big dance aspirations so they don't really have anything to be let down or upset about. Their about where they were supposed to be, an NIT quality team that's headed to the NIT. 

Apples and Oranges. 

Yeah, that's the risk i'm willing to take, b/c on paper they are the far better team. 

i hate to point this out, but they don't play the game on paper...

They don't? Damn.... learn something new every day I guess. Back to the drawing board it is

BOL

Haaaaaaaaaaaahaha

Pitt -4 - Can't pass up Pitt laying on 4 here. This will be the 3rd game in 3 days for U Conn and you gotta figure the fatigue factor might begin to come into play. As everyone knows U Conn is lead by all world guard Kemba Walker, but he'll face a much stiffer challenge today then he has in the previous 2 days. Don't expect to see Kemba get into the lane and running around free off pick and rolls all day against this Pitt defense. It just won't happen. If he really wants his 25-30 points he might find a way to get it, but it'll be as a volume shooter. In their last meeting Kemba got his 31 but did so on 10-27 from the field. Pitt will live that if it happens. Don't expect an efficient and dominant Kemba today. What's made U Conn better the last few games is the improved play of Lamb, Oriakhi, Napier and Coombs-McDaniel. Much like Walker however they'll find things much tougher today against one of the top defenses in the nation. In addition to Pitt's great defense they won't beat themselves. Their 4 top ball handlers (Gibbs, Wanamaker, Brown and Woodall) all have an Asst/TO ratio of nearly 2/1 or better. Another one of their strengths is how selfless they are, they don't care who scores, who takes the most shots or anything like that. They are simply results oriented and thrive off team ball on both ends of the floor. U Conn is striving to be like that (and it's easier to do against weaker opponents) but today when things get tough I expect Kemba to try and do it all himself. When that happens U Conn will be in trouble and play right into Pitt's hands. I lay the short chalk and expect an 8-10 point Pitt win. 

You are the only one who didn't know... Memo's were actually passed out.