12-3 on Terp games this season. Headed out this afternoon to drive to the FSU game, then flying out of Jax in the morning to go to D.C for the weekend, see some snow and hopefully the Terp UNC game on Sunday. Fucking snow concerns me if this storm gets real bad.
Clemson game sucked. The Terps could not have played much worse but still had a lead with something like 6 minutes to go. They did not shoot well and played with no tempo. SOME of it had to do with Clemson but much more of it had to do with the whole team outside of Jordan Williams (gonna be a stud) playing like ass. GV will not have many games like that and instead of jumping on them early, we played from behind and with no intensity. Clemson is really average but oh well, sometimes you just play poorly.
Tonight the Terps go to Tallahassee to play a tough FSU team. In the first game, the Noles tried to make it ugly. Alibaba got into very early foul trouble and had to sit alot in the first half. That helped and by the time he could stay in, he did damage but not what he could have. The Noles are very athletic and will likely win the battle on the boards. The Noles have the most efficient Defensive Efficiency percentage in the country according to Pomeroy but this stat is a little skewed because its slanted to early season domination in games. For example, the Noles are middle of the pack in defensive FG% in ACC play. In fact, the Terps have a better defensive %.
Jordan Williams is really developing quickly inside for the Terps. His stats were as good, if not playing a better game, against Booker for Clemson. Of course Jordan has only been at MD for a year while Booker is 36 and has four kids. Jordan will have his hands full tonight and needs to stay out of foul trouble against Alibababababa. The Noles frontcourt is multi faceted and we will have to try and keep them off the glass. Milbourne, Padgett and good rebounding guards (especially GV and Mosely) will have to contribute.
The Noles are very solid defensively. On the flip side, they are only average (or worse) on offense. They don't shoot terribly well outside about 8 feet and they are bad from the FT line in the event this is close at the end. The Noles are turnover prone and don't share the ball particularly well. Assist:turnover ratio is near the bottom of the ACC while the Terp's is near the top. The Noles do it with D and grinding it out. So, if the Terps can get ahead and speed up the tempo, they win. If the Noles get ahead and frustrate the Terps, then play slow, the Terps lose. So who controls tempo? Probably more the Noles since it's at home and the Terps have had a tough time there over the years. The Terps only forced 12 turnovers aginst the Noles at Comcast and will need to do much more than that to get easy baskets tonight. If they can turn them over, they win. The Terps should be able to handle any 3/4 court pressure and need to try to get up and down to keep FSU from getting set in the halfcourt D where they really excel. Also, if FSU has a Dulkys type kid step up and hit 4-5 long balls, that helps them tremendously. Without some outside makes, the Terps will go to a zone and sag inside, double teaming the big man everytime he gets the ball down low. Fucking Clemson was kicking it back out when we did that on Booker who sucked, then some ass clown would hit a three ball......for the first time all season of course. Whatever.
This game comes down to tempo and if the Terps can get off to a quick start like they have much of the season. The line of -3 is about right and the total of 137.5 appears about right. If you play the Terps, you have to play the over and vice versa. I honestly am a little perplexed by what happens tonight. FSU is not as talented as Maryland as a TEAM though they do have some good frontcourt players. This is a huge game for both teams. MD needs to win to get back to one of the top teams in the ACC, avoid a slide and get a win on the road. FSU needs to protect home court and get this win against a team that will be a "good win" at the end of the season.
My gut says the Terps can and should win this game. They are just better when they play "right". FSU however is at home, the ACC home teams almost always gets the calls and some clown I'm sure will be red hot for the first time all season from outside. If Alibababa stays out of foul trouble, it hurts the Terps. Give me Gary all day long in the coaching match-up, especially with four days to prepare.
I want to be wrong on this one but I think the play is FSU and also the under.
FSU -3 and under 137.5.
Will be at the game also ACC BOL
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