$$$ PURDUE @ IU Thursday Write-up & Plays $$$

NCAABB YTD: 106-93-10 (+13.17 units)

Wednesday: 2-3 (-2.27 units)

PURDUE (18-3) @ Indiana Loosiers (9-11)

General Notes - Purdue comes into this game winners of 4 in a row after a 3 game skid, while IU comes in losing two straight.  Purdue is 3-2 on the road this season while IU is 7-6 at home. 

We all know this is a big rivalry game in the state of Indiana.  No matter the records, you will see good effort played by both teams.  Even though IU is terrible and won’t be making the post-season, this game (as well as the return matchup in a couple weeks) is their post-season opportunity.  If IU can win this game, they can at least hold their head up high and say “hey, we beat a very good Purdue squad this season.”  If Purdue wins, they will take it as “hey, we beat our rival, but this in essence doesn’t mean as much because our focus is the Big Ten title, catching Michigan St, and head to the NCAA tournament as a high seed.”  You got to think about the motivation in this game for each team and determine who is going to want this more.

This is one reason why I am taking Indiana Thursday.  This line is really high, even if this game was at Purdue, the line would be around 14 points which isn’t much higher.  Indiana is coming off a hard fought battle at Illinois last Saturday when they lost at the buzzer.  As much as I want to dog on IU, I can only give them props to fighting in virtually every game they’ve played this year.  They are young and still developing as a team.  When Maurice Creek went down to a season ending injury, I thought IU would get blown out in almost every game, but they have surprised me.

Purdue has been so inconsistent ATS recently.  It’s really hard to bet on their games – they have a team that should beat opponents pretty handily, yet they always tend to have rough stretches in games that let’s the opponent get back into the game.

Purdue has Michigan St on the road in their next game.  Will they be looking ahead to that match-up? Yes and no.  Like I said, their focus is winning the big ten and in order to do that, they will need to beat Michigan St. in their two remaining match-ups, so you got to assume they are itching to play the Spartans next week.  But this is a rivalry game, and Purdue will undoubtedly want to beat the shit out of Indiana.  However, Purdue has not won at Assembly Hall in 11 years!

I don’t like to bet against Purdue because then I’m conflicted with rooting for Purdue while trying to win my bet.  But I don’t bet on my team just because I want them to win.  If there is money involved, no matter what, I wager who I think will cover.  And in this game, it’s clear that the spread is way too high, which is why I’m taking…

INDIANA +12 (-120 - 3 units). 

since that post was too long, here are my other LEANS:

KENT ST -4

GEORGIA TECH +13

ALABAMA -3

VA TECH -3

LSU +7

WASHINGTON -9

PORTLAND +9

BOL THURSDAY

yea they can in a lot of their games, but they just don't

Quote Originally Posted by Poundtown55:

Glad to see you  on Indiana .  My buddy goes to school there, and he says this game will be huge for the Hoosiers and their crowd.  I think they have a small chance of winning straight up if they are hitting from outside

IU will keep it respectable but not straight up....always a chance though in these types of games

Quote Originally Posted by billyweather:

GL BUDDY!!! I THINK A LOT OF US GOT BEAT UP WED NITE!! DAMN UAB, VANDY AND GEORGIA!!

Me to Billy.. WTF, I kicked ass Tues only to give it back Wed

This bball shit is nothing like NFL

I was thinking the same, my numbers had Purdue by 7.

If this is your BIG play today, could you post it in the THURSDAY FORUM CONSENSUS post.....

GL

Thank Purdue.....

Let's go LOOSIERS

yea i suppose...he needs to lay off the fake and bake though

two more locked plays:

VIRGINIA TECH -3 (1 unit)

NOTRE DAME -3 (1 unit)

don;t have too much time to give many thoughts besides that IU game - back a little later, got two more on my radar

PurduePride-

Any concerns on this line movement on the IU game?

I think he learned it from Roy Williams, that dude spends more time in a tanning bed than Hulk Hogan!!

PP

  Down in B-town tonight and might head on over to the game.  Buddy has tickets but we will see.  I think this game stays around the 10 mark.  I see Purdue covering at the end though, but still to close to call.  Huge IU fan and unfortunately they are one of the worse teams to predict what they will do.  Place will be rocking though.

Kent State looks like a solid play.

I know you do not do totals but Murray St over looks very nice!!

locked play #4

LSU +7 (-120 1 unit) - This line is a little strange.  72% is on Tennessee, yet the line has dropped 1/2 a point since it opened .  LSU has looked like garbage this year, but taking a look at Tennessee's last 5 games, they have been unimpressive, squeking by a coulpe of the those games and losing 2 as well.  LSU has athletes that can hang in with UT (Tasmn Mitchell ).  Taking the home team and the points here