Sat/Sun plays.......(Serie A, Sandwiches, and Stuff)

Question

back in min. these ads

specimen24 · Answer

back in min. these ads

specimen24 · Answer

getting this out of way, free up the wknd.

Sandwich time

And so it begins:

last year was abnormal (early rounders are typically painful) as 6 teams scr*wed up right out of the gate for me and then Munich laid a colossal egg in round 2. we'll see what this season brings.

Round 1:

Barca/Valencia - no play. both involved.

Leipzig/Munich - no play. both involved.

Dortmund/Lever - no play. both involved.

Amiens/Lyon +375, +275 (friday)

Wolves/Chelsea +200, +240

Charleroi/Genk +180, +270 (friday)

Cercle/Brugge +775, +470

Norwich/City +1500, +870, +1.5 @+215

Genoa/Atalanta +240, +280

Sociedad/Atletico +300, +225

Fiorentina/Juventus +450, +290

Sochi/Lokotimov +350, +260

specimen24 · Answer

Serie A: im careful not to paint this with a broad brush as I dont know how it applies to other countries/leagues (tho I do imagine theres some sort of similarity); but these rounds following Intl breaks tend to be BIG bannana peel days for our top clubs. and to make matters worse, this year theres a CL round coming up next week. this has always been a terrible spot for Juventus; the entire team practically flies out of Turin last week, each to play for their respective countries. not only the travel but the wear and tear; most come back on Wednesday. and with Juve/Napoli etc etc having a bullseye on its back on EVERYBODYS schedule these other clubs with few Intl players sit there at home for 10+ days scheming, practicing, resting, developing gameplans specifically for this ONE game.

Fiorentina/Juventus - alerady have an automatic play on Fior. put a detailed writeup in thy futures thread on how Fior might end up making it thru Sept winless & Montella on the hot seat; both are taking shape an they really need pts from this match. youd be hard pressed to find a better spot to beat a 'big boy' in europe: 1) at home 2) Intl break where youve been practicing for 10 days while opponent out of country 3) Juve with a new coach. a new system. and now without their captain/leader Mr. Everything and a defense which got shredded by napoli few weeks ago. 4) a sandwich spot with a trip to Madrid on deck as Christian is certain to receive a WARM welcome from the supporters of his old cross-town rivals. think he isnt looking forward to that match? Christian absolutely HATES Simeone fyi. 5) lastly, its an early start. and my god we've s*cked at these early start times; maybe Sarri can turn this around. (fyi, due to the popularity and tv contracts, Juventus hardly ever plays the early one)

getting 400+ for this? of course we have the quality to thump them 4-0. but cazzo!!!..... this is decent value with a line that SHOULD be in the 200s instead.

this is one of those plays i kind of hope im totally wrong about; but systems have no feelings. so i try to do the same.

Napoli/Sampdoria -

worthy of another post, best damn goal Ive seen in a long time (and not because its italian):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yyA5Fbn7m8

on the difficulty scale scale of 1-10, thats about a 15 folks. and here we go again. another major bannana-skin possibility. at lest theyre at home in Naples. similar to Juve with everybody out of town but look whom is coming for a visit next week - AGAIN -?.... Klopp & friends.

a buddy whom follows the squad says the team is all fired up for that one. (DTP... this is going to be a good one again

). Sampdoria need to get that goose egg removedd from the "points" cloumn. but Napoli at home here, and Napoli havent lost to Samp @home since LAST decade. PASS.

Inter/Udinese - Part III of the days CL participants. Inter, in my opinion, made the best move of anyone in all of europe during the transfer session.

they (Conte) got rid of Icardi. have fun PSG, he - and that pitbull wife/agent - is YOUR problem now. Lukaku looks in the best shape in years, he's definitely shed a few kilos and playing well. dont know what his issue is/was, maybe he just got sick of being under Mou for all those years, i have the foggiest clue.

Udine nothing to write home about and are poor travellers; though Inter open their CL with Slavia @home on tuesday theres needs to be more than this for me to fade Conte. PASS.

specimen24 · Answer

Genoa/Atalanta - sandwich spot.Brescia/Bologna - quickly realizing that this season is going to put my common sense to the test. love Brescia, and hope they survive, thisis their home opener (1st Serie A match in almost a decade), beat Cagliari and gave a heavily favored Milano squad fits with their counterattacking style losing 0-1. Balotelli still serving his suspension. but also have a sizable future with Bologna finishing in Top 10; with Sasha back into chemo he wont be on the sidelines; sitting there nicely in 6th after 2 rounds but look whom theyve played (SPAL, Hellas); two whom will be struggling at relegation. downside of Intl breaks is that they tend to halt momentum but going to take a shot as its their home opener and they played much tougher opposition thus far (Cagliari is no picnic to win at).  Brescia to win @&#x2B;200Parma/Cagliari - this line should be juiced.  Cagliari have always been weka travellers but they have a boatload of missings; starting GK, midfielder, and leading striker. lean to Parma but going to wait. SPAL/Lazio - SPAL beat them last year 1-0 with a horsh*t PK decision in the 89th minute. a midweek match coming on the heels of Lazios huge showdown beating Inter up in San Siro. prior to that Lazio has thumped them 4-1 &amp; 5-2.  they have UEL on thursday but this should be no worse than a &#x27;push&#x27;. Lazio -1 @&#x2B;110Roma/Sassuolo - dont like this Roman defense. shouldnt be much of a suprise I guess, they have coach whom flat-out told the media he doesnt focus on the defensive end.  sure, a 1-1 draw vs their cross-town rivals the other week; but Lazio hit the woodwork 7 times. Sass living up to DeCerbis promises have been absolutely &#x27;bombs-away&#x27; thus far. again, Intl breaks are funny, but on paper i cant see this one staying low given the style each team employs unless their finishing is off.  Roma/Sass over 3.5 @&#x2B;120Verona/Milan - PASS. not touching Milan till they play better. this is another banana-peel possibility as 3/4 of Milans squad were out of the country the past week. and these guys have developed a NASTY little habit of blowing chunks vs the chunkblowers; they collected just 3 pts on the road from the bottom 4 of serie a last year. and ALREADY started the year off losing to a weak Udinese squad. from the capping standpoint - they are annoying little *********s over there. PASS.EPL:Tott/Crystal - Tottenham were EXTREMELY good (considering the league theyre) in those matches before the CL last year; 8-1-1. 6 of those wins i think were cleansheets too, 4 of them on the road i think - they really hosed me last year..  so Poch tightens up the screws in these spots. with Palace struggling for goals those prices on the under seems a bit off so ill gladly take a stab at it. as I dont think Tott is going to be all too concerned with piling it on. Tott/Palace under 2.5 @&#x2B;140Spain:Villareal to win @210 - not certain what their story/issue is; perhaps the break gave them a chance to hit that &#x27;reset&#x27; button.  but getting 200s vs an opponent whom has scored just once in 3 games (they were in the bottom 3 last year too) and Ill take a shot at this. will add a few later GL to all (cork popping)

specimen24 · Answer

not much time, slow start with sides for the wknd but hit first :2 sandwiches of season.

adding:

England Lower:

Wealdstone -1 @+154

Rushall -1 @+106, over 3.5 @+160

EPL

Bournemouth/Everton over 2.5 @-125 (sunday)

friend tracks this, caught me off guard; was advised to take a peek at these CL teams. normally, they clobber everyone domestically, or so I thought. which is why Im suprised to see top-heavy low scores in these spots. going lightly.

Austria:

Salzburg/Hartberg under 3.5 @+170, under 2.5 @+450

Ukraine:

Shakhtar/Zorya under 2.5 @+143

Ajax is another one; before winter break last year they were 9-3 to the under (3.5) in their games before UCL. but 31 goals in last 6 H2Hs with this. Ajax/Heerenveen under 3.5 @+150

GL to all

piotrtoro · Answer

As always a good read.&#xA; &#xA;BOL this weekend Spec

specimen24 · Answer

Piotr tks. appreciate it.didnt realize norwich result till long after getting back.  glad wasnt watching.  as expected, we put up another clunker with just 5 shot attempts and here we go again, 3 more get sent to treatment table.  yeah Piotr, deep bench but cazzo!!  already starting with this??    anyways...5 dropped pts for a nice wknd:Amiens/Lyon &#x2B;375, &#x2B;275 (L, W) Wolves/Chelsea &#x2B;200, &#x2B;240 (L, L)Charleroi/Genk &#x2B;180, &#x2B;270 (W, L)Cercle/Brugge &#x2B;775, &#x2B;470 (L, L) Norwich/City &#x2B;1500, &#x2B;870, &#x2B;1.5 @&#x2B;215 (W, L, W)    BANG!!! Sociedad/Atletico &#x2B;300, &#x2B;225 (W, L)Fiorentina/Juventus &#x2B;450, &#x2B;290 (L, W)Sochi/Lokotimov &#x2B;350, &#x2B;260 (L, L) Tott/Palace under 2.5 @&#x2B;140 (L)Villareal to win @210 (W)Wealdstone -1 @&#x2B;154 (P)Rushall -1 @&#x2B;106, over 3.5 @&#x2B;160 (P, W)(smaller plays) going to have a little chat with someone about these. Salzburg/Hartberg under 3.5 @&#x2B;170, under 2.5 @&#x2B;450 (L, L)Shakhtar/Zorya under 2.5 @&#x2B;143 (L)Ajax/Heerenveen under 3.5 @&#x2B;150 (L)(pending)Brescia to win @&#x2B;200Lazio -1 @&#x2B;110Roma/Sass over 3.5 @&#x2B;120Bournemouth/Everton over 2.5 @-125adding:Norway:Molde/Tromso over 3.5 @&#x2B;125Genoa/Atalanta - im not fond of playing &#x27;overs&#x27; this early in season, especially off an Intl break; and theres that dreaded early start time to accomodate Atalantas UCL match. (this is also a sandwich spot. so im probably pushing my luck here) but as mentioned in futures thread, atalantas &#x27;overs&#x27; should be a popular play weekly, if not that, then at least the btts; Gasperini sticking with 3 men in the back. theyve been fun to watch. theres been 10 in their 2 matches thus far (5/5) to two opponents whom arent exactly offensive minded. so these guys picking up right where they left off last year when leading the league in goals scored on road as well as the worst defense of any the Serie A teams playing in europe. Genoa on the other side have been equally as efficient and have their own bombs away approach this year.  this number has hit in 9 of the last 10 H2H&#x27;s too. not going heavy cause of the early start but worth a shot.  Genoa/Atalanta over 3 @-105, Genoa TT over 1.5 @&#x2B;125Immobile(Lazio) to score 2&#x2B; goals @&#x2B;350 - first of all he was/is the landslide pick for striker in fantasy this Round. not because there werent any others, just simply because nobody wants to get left behind if he goes bonkers again. Mr. Selfish absolutely loves creampuffs; stat-padding day. banged in 4 first time he saw them, then 2 more for good measure last year as everybody blew right by me, when these two have Friendlies? he scores there too. might as well plunk some on this prop while Im at it. cazzo!!!back tmrw with CL stuff.  GL to all

specimen24 · Answer

sweet mother of god. didnt realize norwich had a ht lead till long after getting back. those dont usually come till the 5th/6th rounds. a nice start to give a big cushion with these moving forward

strange day, bunch of injury time goals, one taken away, Immobile just gets 1, & feel lousy about Brescia blowing a 3-1 lead. a very good wknd nonetheless

Brescia to win @+200 (L)

Lazio -1 @+110 (L)

Roma/Sass over 3.5 @+120 (W)

Bournemouth/Everton over 2.5 @-125 (W)

Molde/Tromso over 3.5 @+125 (L)

Genoa/Atalanta over 3 @-105, Genoa TT over 1.5 @+125 (P, L)

Immobile(Lazio) to score 2+ goals @+350 (L)

final tally for sandwiches. a huge round, as 3 of the 'Power 5' leaders scr*wed up (Juve, Atletico, City) not entirely sure if city going to be as accomodating towards this the rest of year. come to think of it, Juve too. injury time goal hosed the final one yesterday as atalanta did me in.

Amiens/Lyon +375, +275 (L, W)

Wolves/Chelsea +200, +240 (L, L)

Charleroi/Genk +180, +270 (W, L)

Cercle/Brugge +775, +470 (L, L)

Norwich/City +1500, +870, +1.5 @+215 (W, L, W)

Genoa/Atalanta +240, +280 (L, L)

Sociedad/Atletico +300, +225 (W, L)

Fiorentina/Juventus +450, +290 (L, W)

Sochi/Lokotimov +350, +260 (L, L)

huge 13-match card coming up for Round 2.

on to the CL now

Sat/Sun plays.......(Serie A, Sandwiches, and Stuff)

Hot Forum Topics