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Wahoos, Hammers, JDN, Jimmy, etc.

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Posted: #1
Its Bama-Auburn time.  Looking for thoughts, insights, and plays from the best... 
 
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Posted: #2
you did not name me but i've been following the game for over 3 decades so please excuse me for chiming in,

Bama has shut down offense that are mostly conventional (V Tech, LSU, Ole Miss), the unconventional offense of A&M with athletic QB put up 42 pts on them,

look for Auburn with their unconventional offense to use trickeration, read options, spread, triple option, reverses, etc, to move the ball very well, almost as well if not better than A&M, and for Auburn to stay within the 10.5 pts,


 
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Posted: #3
let's have JimmyDaFreak and JWHEELS86 come back and talk about Florida who they touted preseason when others like myself and Boom Boom were down on,

thanks i'll take your answer off the air
 
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Posted: #4
Auburn is a great story & I like Gus alot

that said, Auburn is one-dimensional offensively & they don't have a good defense

I won't bet Bama because the line is rich for a road game in a rivalry but no way I'd back Auburn

Alabama has won 2 titles in a row for a reason, they are a complete team, if I'm going to bet against then I need another complete team playing them & while Auburn is a fun watch, they are far from a complete team in all facets, I'm not saying Auburn can't cover or win, what I am saying is I'm not willing to bet them

anything can happen in a huge rivalry game but I'll watch as a fan & not force action just because it's a big matchup

No play for me here

.
 
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Posted: #5
Do not ask teaser guy for his 78,000 "unit" pick

 
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Posted: #6
Mega--

Who are you referring to? We have several of them

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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

Auburn is a great story & I like Gus alot

that said, Auburn is one-dimensional offensively & they don't have a good defense

I won't bet Bama because the line is rich for a road game in a rivalry but no way I'd back Auburn

Alabama has won 2 titles in a row for a reason, they are a complete team, if I'm going to bet against then I need another complete team playing them & while Auburn is a fun watch, they are far from a complete team in all facets, I'm not saying Auburn can't cover or win, what I am saying is I'm not willing to bet them

anything can happen in a huge rivalry game but I'll watch as a fan & not force action just because it's a big matchup

No play for me here


Thanks Wahoos.  I always appreciate your insight and look forward to your threads.  Best of luck this week!
 
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Posted: #8
You're welcome & Happy Thanksgiving

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Posted: #9
I'd have bet auburn at +27.5 in July as a GOY and even at 15.5 this morning when it opened. 

But not at -10.5. 

Sit back and enjoy as a fan. 


 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

Mega--

Who are you referring to? We have several of them



Most guys on Covers actually are not that stupid to play NCAA teasers. Even fewer lie about their "winning" on said teasers. 


 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

Auburn is a great story & I like Gus alot

that said, Auburn is one-dimensional offensively & they don't have a good defense

I won't bet Bama because the line is rich for a road game in a rivalry but no way I'd back Auburn

Alabama has won 2 titles in a row for a reason, they are a complete team, if I'm going to bet against then I need another complete team playing them & while Auburn is a fun watch, they are far from a complete team in all facets, I'm not saying Auburn can't cover or win, what I am saying is I'm not willing to bet them

anything can happen in a huge rivalry game but I'll watch as a fan & not force action just because it's a big matchup

No play for me here

I agree with Wahoo. Bama will shut this offense down and score at will. Auburn should have lost to Georgia, who couldn't hold Bama's jock. I am a BADGER fan , but this will be a BAMA BEATDOWN because they are playing better defense, than when they played TXAM.   BAMA BIGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #12
I think I know who you mean Mega


nice hit on ok st (wink), now be ready to bet Baylor next week in Waco when they bend Texas over their knee & lay on a beating

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Posted: #13
Auburn would've had a better chance to cover this line if they had lost to UGA.. But now that it's a 1 game playoff and it's AU, Bama and Saban will score quick and often and put MAD pressure on the axles of the Gus Bus.. Unless AU can pass for 200+ yards they be fizuked!! That means bet Bama and bet em LARGE.. 41-17 Bama
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

I think I know who you mean Mega


nice hit on ok st (wink), now be ready to bet Baylor next week in Waco when they bend Texas over their knee & lay on a beating

Thx buddy still like Baylor quite a bit. Like next wk as u said  Hoping I can find some time to look at a couple games for this wk. 
 
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Posted: #15
Mega--

Absolutely, I don't overreact to one game, that's why i have fat pockets..Baylor will thrash Texas & then thrash someone else in a big bowl game, I knew they were in trouble last night but they will get healthier as we go forward, they are a legit team that got worked in a tough road game

Happy Thanksgiving bro

.
 
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Posted: #16
Happy Thanksgiving buddy 

Baylor is a juggernaut still. No doubt. 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

Mega--

Absolutely, I don't overreact to one game, that's why i have fat pockets..Baylor will thrash Texas & then thrash someone else in a big bowl game, I knew they were in trouble last night but they will get healthier as we go forward, they are a legit team that got worked in a tough road game

Happy Thanksgiving bro


Last night was the perfect storm in Stillwater. Not many teams could have gone in there and won.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

Auburn is a great story & I like Gus alot

that said, Auburn is one-dimensional offensively & they don't have a good defense

I won't bet Bama because the line is rich for a road game in a rivalry but no way I'd back Auburn

Alabama has won 2 titles in a row for a reason, they are a complete team, if I'm going to bet against then I need another complete team playing them & while Auburn is a fun watch, they are far from a complete team in all facets, I'm not saying Auburn can't cover or win, what I am saying is I'm not willing to bet them

anything can happen in a huge rivalry game but I'll watch as a fan & not force action just because it's a big matchup

No play for me here



You touch on the salient points Wahoo.

Aside from Malzahn, Auburn has a very good and experienced coaching staff.  I watch one of Auburn's spring practices and observed that Malzahn and the coaching staff were really making an effort to do things the right way.  I knew this would be a much improved team this season, but I never expected them to enter the Iron Bowl at 10 & 1 and playing for the SEC West crown.  I thought with their QB situation such as it is, 7 (regular season) wins would have been about the high-water mark for this team.  I thought a 6 or 7 win season would be a springboard to SEC-contention type success in subsequent years.  The fact that Malzahn has been able to take this team as far as he has without a legitimate passing threat at the QB position is simply amazing, and he is certainly worthy of coach-of-the-year honors.

That said, Malzahn has never had any success running the ball against Alabama, and I would expect that to continue this season.  In 2009 Auburn rushed the ball 32 times for 151 yards for a 4.7 ypc average.  One of those rushes, however, was a rather fluke 67-yard run by WR Terrell Zachery on Auburn's 4th play from scrimmage.  Auburn ran that same play on at least two other occasions later in the game, and both times it went for negative yardage.

Without that 67-yard run, Auburn rushed the ball 31 times for 84 yards, or 2.7 ypc.  As you'll see, the 2.7 ypc is much more representative of Auburn's true ability to run against a Saban coached defense.

When Cam Newton came to Tuscaloosa the following season (2010), Auburn rushed for 69 yards on 30 carries, or 2.3 ypc.  And in 2011 a Cam Newton-less Auburn team rushed for 78 yards on 35 carries (2.2 ypc).

The cumulative rushing totals for these three games are 97 rushes for 298 yards, or 3.1 ypc.  If we subtract the one fluke run for 67 yards, we have 96 rushes for 231 yards, or 2.4 ypc.

Expect the same type of rushing production out of Auburn in this game:  less than 100 yards and a per rush average in the low 2s.  As in years past, Alabama will again take away Auburn's rushing attack.  The only real shot that Auburn has to move the ball effectively is through the air like Cam Newton did, and I don't believe Auburn is capable of doing that.

Auburn's offense versus Alabama's defense sets up very similar to LSU's offense versus Alabama's defense in the 2011 national title game.  Alabama knew that if they took away LSU's rushing attack, Jordan Jefferson could not beat them passing the ball.  At least on that side of the ball, this game sets up exactly the same way.

While this game certainly has shutout potential, I'll give Auburn credit for a couple of scores - 2 field goals, 2 touchdowns, or some combination thereof.  I think that's pretty much the best case scenario for Auburn, and of course 14 points won't be nearly enough to win or cover this game.

If you can get this line under 14 (currently 10 @ BM), back up the Brinks truck in your bookie's driveway and unload.  There is really very little chance this will be a competitive football game.


 
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Posted: #19
Jimmy,

I don't disagree with any of that, like I said, Auburn appears one-dimensional to me & their defense needs alot of work, I had this number at 12 in my numbers but if it goes below 10 I'd possibly consider it but not sure, it would be much easier knowing you're going to "max" bet the Tide, haha

Happy Thanksgiving bro

.
 
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Posted: #20
Happy thanksgiving guys
Wahoos, what's up brotha is the Baylor/Texas wager gonna be large money? 
 
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Posted: #21
Give saban extra time to prepare for a one trick poney and its bama all day for me. On the other side of the ball aub defense is suspect imo. Bama should be able to do what it wants offensively.
 
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Posted: #22
First, I appreciate the mention in the thread. For my 1st year hanging out with you freaks, it's been fun. 

As for the game....I rarely look weeks ahead to a game I'm gonna bet, but I've had a game for this week and next week ready. This week: Bama. Next week: Baylor 


I basically agree with about everything that Jimmy says. The bottom line is that Auburn hasn't shown they can throw the ball, and going against Bama one-dimensional isn't good. If there is a weak spot on the Bama team, I'd say it's their secondary, and it's certainly not their front 7. So this just spells a bad match up for the Tigers. On the other side I don't think Bama will have much problem moving the ball and putting up points. I also agree that Auburn's offensive and defensive lines have been the key to their success, but I don't think they are going to be able to match up with what Bama will put on the field. 

Auburn having last week off doesn't mean anything IMO. Auburn with 2 weeks to prepare, Bama with 2 or maybe possibly 3 weeks to prepare (who knows how much they put into miss st). 

As for home field, I don't think it will play much of a role. The only times I think it will play are early in the game, and/or late in the game if Auburn is still close (which I don't plan on happening). 
Home field can be a tricky thing.....Example: last week I had a big bet on Okla St against Baylor & the ML. A part of this bet was okla St's home field. Baylor is young in the fact they haven't had this level of success, they had never played on prime time national tv with GameDay on set in a hostile environment....and I certainly think that played a role in their performance.  That loss will be a good thing for Baylor in the future, and they will learn from the experience (and ues I still plan on nailing Baylor next week), but that situation doesn't apply to Bama this week. Bama has been in much bigger situations than this, as they are still a fairly veteran team. So as I'm sure the home field may play some role, I don't expect it to play a big role. 

Bottom line I really like where Auburn is going, and they have far exceeded my expectations, but this game is not a good match up for them. I expected the line to be around 13-14....I actually think this is the first time maybe all year that the oddsmakers are giving Auburn credit and respect. With that said, I'm already on the game @ -10 and would feel very comfortable all the way up to 2 TD's. I'd guess a 34-13 type score
 
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Posted: #23
I also won't be surprised or worried if Bama is down after the 1st qtr. however, if Bama gets up early then I think it could get really ugly real fast 
 
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Posted: #24
Bama has the better QB and coaching. Auburn has had a great year but won 2 games in the final seconds against MSU and UGA. Bama will beat them and cover and make all the folks who tease Auburn feel like idiots.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by gridironguy:

you did not name me but i've been following the game for over 3 decades so please excuse me for chiming in,

Bama has shut down offense that are mostly conventional (V Tech, LSU, Ole Miss), the unconventional offense of A&M with athletic QB put up 42 pts on them,

look for Auburn with their unconventional offense to use trickeration, read options, spread, triple option, reverses, etc, to move the ball very well, almost as well if not better than A&M, and for Auburn to stay within the 10.5 pts,




And one last point that I forgot to mention.....I don't think when analyzing this game that it will do anyone any good trying to compare auburns offense to a&m (since a&m is the only team that has had tremendous amount of success against Bama d). One reason being that a&m has Manziel (and Mike Evans).....auburn doesn't. There has been nothing to make anyone think Marshall can pass the ball like Manziel, or that Marshall can make the plays in the passing game when constant pressure is on. This is just going based on what my eyes have seen this year. 
Also, I think Bama is a much better team then they were in week 2 of the year. I think it's difficult, and probably not smart to break down a big game and cap based on what happened in weeks 1 or 2 or 3 of the season 
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