Thoughts on this game?
First Big 10 match-up of the season and we get two Top 25 teams here. Being from Michigan , I have seen MSU play and I am not impressed to say the least. MSU is 3-7-1 in their last 11 games ATS. MSU’s Defense is giving up 252.5 Passing yards per game, and this bodes well for a Wiscy QB that is completing 76.2% of his throws.
Wiscy also brings to the table a solid run game behind big John Clay. Wiscy averages 226.5 yds passing a game and 257.5 rushing yds. Per game. This balance will be enough to keep MSU on their toes defensively and the run will set up the pass to exploit a very weak secondary for MSU.
Even though Wiscy has dropped their last 2 contests in East Lansing , I don’t see it happening this weekend. Always risky laying chalk on the road in the Big 10, but Wiscy should win this game by a TD or more.
Wiscy -1.5 for me.
First Big 10 match-up of the season and we get two Top 25 teams here. Being from Michigan , I have seen MSU play and I am not impressed to say the least. MSU is 3-7-1 in their last 11 games ATS. MSU’s Defense is giving up 252.5 Passing yards per game, and this bodes well for a Wiscy QB that is completing 76.2% of his throws.
Wiscy also brings to the table a solid run game behind big John Clay. Wiscy averages 226.5 yds passing a game and 257.5 rushing yds. Per game. This balance will be enough to keep MSU on their toes defensively and the run will set up the pass to exploit a very weak secondary for MSU.
Even though Wiscy has dropped their last 2 contests in East Lansing , I don’t see it happening this weekend. Always risky laying chalk on the road in the Big 10, but Wiscy should win this game by a TD or more.
Wiscy -1.5 for me.
I found a good formula with Statfox years ago and have followed it since. To keep it simple, the stability spread sheet I have looks into 5 areas only and scored these areas accordingly.
Head Coach (Returning = 4 points, new = 0)
Offensive Cord (Returning = 3, new = 0)
Deffensive Cord (Returning = 3, new = 0)
QB (Returning = 4, new = 0)
Returning team starters (0-7 =0,8-9 = 1, 10-12 = 2, 13-16 =3, 17-19 =4, 20-22 =5)
Thus the highest stability number we can give any one team will be 19 and the lowest, well could be 0. I have found the most difficult part is following the injuries wk to wk, starters injured or suspended, and always double check your game to ensure the same starting qb at the season begin is starting still, could be huge difference if not. I have tracked trends on this for about 5 years and have a few trends that are intersting.
Betting against teams having 5 points or lower in stability. Last wk wins were Wk1(against Buff, ND, UK, FIU) this is currently hitting 61%. Also occasionally you will find an UD that is 10 points or higher in stability, taking the UD in the game has hit 57% over the last 5 years. Anonther stat that is hitting this season early is taking all UD's with even or higher stability, hitting 60% only this season. And my fav, which only produces a few games each week is taking fav if higher stability and is fav 3 or less, hitting 76% only this year. gl
I found a good formula with Statfox years ago and have followed it since. To keep it simple, the stability spread sheet I have looks into 5 areas only and scored these areas accordingly.
Head Coach (Returning = 4 points, new = 0)
Offensive Cord (Returning = 3, new = 0)
Deffensive Cord (Returning = 3, new = 0)
QB (Returning = 4, new = 0)
Returning team starters (0-7 =0,8-9 = 1, 10-12 = 2, 13-16 =3, 17-19 =4, 20-22 =5)
Thus the highest stability number we can give any one team will be 19 and the lowest, well could be 0. I have found the most difficult part is following the injuries wk to wk, starters injured or suspended, and always double check your game to ensure the same starting qb at the season begin is starting still, could be huge difference if not. I have tracked trends on this for about 5 years and have a few trends that are intersting.
Betting against teams having 5 points or lower in stability. Last wk wins were Wk1(against Buff, ND, UK, FIU) this is currently hitting 61%. Also occasionally you will find an UD that is 10 points or higher in stability, taking the UD in the game has hit 57% over the last 5 years. Anonther stat that is hitting this season early is taking all UD's with even or higher stability, hitting 60% only this season. And my fav, which only produces a few games each week is taking fav if higher stability and is fav 3 or less, hitting 76% only this year. gl
Badgers won last year
Badgers won last year
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