These teams are very different than the ones that have amassed some impressive ATS numbers in seasons past....
I’ve been looking forward to an agreeable line in this game and that’s what I got. I expect a 7+ point victory. Freeman is nails this season and he's going to show the country why he will be the first pick in next year's draft (as a junior). He was very green when UL got their victory in Manhattan a few seasons ago. He will not make many mistakes in this game as he takes advantage of UL's defense. Way more mature this time, total confidence, and surrounded by a better team top to bottom. He also has some great targets to throw to, in contrast to last season. He has spread the ball very effectively, and the new WR corps has totally impressed thus far. Brandon Banks is a tiny speed freak and legit home run threat (9 catches 20.3 ypc and 3 td's)- just like Deon Murphy. Murphy has primarily played special teams to this point, but will return at WR and he’s a rocket. These two are complemented by Aubrey Quarles and Lamark Brown- very big WR's with good hands. Mastrud at TE is an excellent pass catcher. Freeman is quite underrated at this point in the season, he has a ton of targets to throw to, and he has a national stage to do it on. I think Cantwell will get better as the season progresses (and he’ll have a better game than he did vs Kentucky), but Freeman is in an entirely different league right now.
On the OL, Alesana Alesana is back and healthy, allowing for some continuity. This is important because Keithen Valentine is an average RB (Freeman might have to throw the ball 40 times), and UL will bring a better pass rush than KSU has seen to this point. OL is playing well, but needs to get better. Not only will the Cats see a better pass defense this week, they'll see a much better rush defense.
The Cats defense appears to be improved in talent and speed only. Is this good? Yes and no. It's good because the LB trio has a ton of potential and the secondary is very tough. Bad, because these guys are inexperienced. UL's offense is good enough to exploit their speed and inexperience with some misdirection, and the LB’s are green enough to bite on it. UL certainly gained confidence while whoopin' a cupcake and rushing for 250 and scoring 51. I think UL will score some points. Also, KSU's defense is struggling with the same fundamental issue they had last season - tackling. Too many running plays get into the secondary, and too many pass plays go further than they should. Lots of grab-ass going on right now. Speaking of the secondary- I can’t speak for UL’s, but KSU’s is very, very good. I believe the KSU defense will create turnovers with speed and big plays.
UL’s defense was horrible last season, but they’ve put up some good numbers this season. If they’re truly improved, it will show Wednesday night, but it still won’t be enough to stop Freeman.
Even if KSU's defense gives it up, I still like the Cats to cover by 7+...I'd feel a lot better about this game if not for the improving but still suspect defense, and renewed confidence for UL after throttling TT. Nevertheless, I expect KSU to bring the same kind of prime-time TV intensity they brought on the road in a loss (but cover) vs Auburn last season...special teams fireworks, big plays on offense, and a little trickery will pave the way. UL just doesn't have enough right now.
I’ll take this line all the way up to -7, and I also like the total to go well over 60 (current total is around 57.5).
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