https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101568922
If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
4.16.2013, 3-0-2, -+13.04 Units, +87% ROI
YTD – 36-36-10, +15.52 Units, +4% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – 4/13/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Red Sox F5 (+128) FG (+130) (Aceves / Masterson)
OK, I can grant Masterson over Aceves, not hard to do. In fact by using radical computations I can grant him 20 to 36 cents worth of line value. No sweat. Where I part company with those folks that love Masterson is in the offense. The Indians are nowhere near as productive with the sticks as are the Red Sox, currently rated at 44.7 versus my MLB average of 32, and producing 5.4 offensive earned runs per 9 innings versus right handed starters and versus the MLB average of 4.33. The Tribe better get one heck of an effort from Masterson considering they have a rating of only 27 with an offensive era of 3.7 versus the same standards. The offensive award goes to the Red Sox by 62 cents of line value, and what we have here is a false favorite that pays 71 cents on the dollar of risk while the true favorite pays 130 cents.
Cardinals F5 (-120) FG (-116) (Miller / Burnett)
The only race the Pirates are in is to fight it out with the Cubs to see who replaces the Astros at the bottom of the division, thereby possibly qualifying as the worst team in MLB, considering that team will have finished worst in the worst division. Hated by Pirates fans last year at the signing, A.J. Burnett is now the “Top Gun” “King of the hill” “Top of the rotation” starter. Good for him; he got enough abuse in
Diamondbacks F5 (+142) FG (+145) (Miley / Sabathia)
If I change the names of a few people I can just use the same write up for this game. The offensive margin is not quite so far apart but still favors the D-backs and the slim difference between Miley and Sabathia is almost irrelevant. What established and carried the line here is public belief in the Yankees, with Sabathia, at home. All well and good but at -155 the Yankees have to have a better than 60.8% probability of winning this game before you even start to look at turning a profit on it. Quite simply, it isn’t there.