Last week I learned that the NL East is going to be a tough division this. The Braves pitching and bats were reminiscent of the Tommy Glavin/John Smoltz (and of course Chipper Jones) era. On the other side of the coin, the Nationals under performed and were shelled by the Braves in the last game of the series... Not to mention swept in the series at home.
The Phillies swept the Marlins (as expected). However, they did it with a total of SIX runs throughout the series. We will have to see if the Phillies get those bats going this week... They have the talent, they just need to get out that slump.
Here's the big surprise, the New York Mets are in sole possession of 2nd place in the division as they head to Colorado tonight. The Rockies and Mets start a nice little four game series that theoretically the Mets should take three of four. But, the Rockies are over performing and could give the Mets fits.
Anyway, this week I am backing the Mets and Nationals to win their respected series. The Phillies are not putting up enough runs to convince me they can beat the Reds (who scored 19 runs in the past three games compared to the Phillies 6 runs). The Nationals are juiced at a 65 cents favorite but I am confident they are going to take out the bad taste in their mouths (from the Braves series) this week against the Marlins.
The Mets are generously priced as a 16 cents underdog and I will take it. Colorado beat up on the Padres the last three days.... The Padres (2-10). I cannot, with a straight face, say that Colorado will take this series from the Mets. That being said, look for an even GB/FB ratio (both pitchers have a 1.00 GB/FB ratio) and possibly a couple home runs. The weather in Denver is suppose to be cold, possibly raining/snowy so if this game gets off I can foresee a low scoring gaming. Anyway, picks are below for the two NL East games I like today.
New York Mets +116
Washington Nationals -165
1-2 YTD -2.5%
Best of Luck,
WD
Twitter: @WageDiscipline
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Last week I learned that the NL East is going to be a tough division this. The Braves pitching and bats were reminiscent of the Tommy Glavin/John Smoltz (and of course Chipper Jones) era. On the other side of the coin, the Nationals under performed and were shelled by the Braves in the last game of the series... Not to mention swept in the series at home.
The Phillies swept the Marlins (as expected). However, they did it with a total of SIX runs throughout the series. We will have to see if the Phillies get those bats going this week... They have the talent, they just need to get out that slump.
Here's the big surprise, the New York Mets are in sole possession of 2nd place in the division as they head to Colorado tonight. The Rockies and Mets start a nice little four game series that theoretically the Mets should take three of four. But, the Rockies are over performing and could give the Mets fits.
Anyway, this week I am backing the Mets and Nationals to win their respected series. The Phillies are not putting up enough runs to convince me they can beat the Reds (who scored 19 runs in the past three games compared to the Phillies 6 runs). The Nationals are juiced at a 65 cents favorite but I am confident they are going to take out the bad taste in their mouths (from the Braves series) this week against the Marlins.
The Mets are generously priced as a 16 cents underdog and I will take it. Colorado beat up on the Padres the last three days.... The Padres (2-10). I cannot, with a straight face, say that Colorado will take this series from the Mets. That being said, look for an even GB/FB ratio (both pitchers have a 1.00 GB/FB ratio) and possibly a couple home runs. The weather in Denver is suppose to be cold, possibly raining/snowy so if this game gets off I can foresee a low scoring gaming. Anyway, picks are below for the two NL East games I like today.
The Nationals took care of business as expected. Tomorrow they are back at it again. Haren is on the mound for the Nats and my confidence in him is shaky, however. I like how Washington is swinging the bats. I would not at all be surprised if the Nationals sweep the Marlins.
The other game I thought was going to go as expected was the Phillies falling to the Reds. The Phillies bats are just not getting it done for their pitching. They are emotionally shaky and their confidence does not look too high as they struggled against the Marlins. Bailey takes the hill for the Reds and I am confident in their bull pen to help him out if he gets into trouble early. I like the Reds to down the Phillies once again and see Chapman break that 100 MPH mark.
I am waiting on more information about the weather and game information for the Mets and Rockies double header. Again I like the Mets all the way through the series and I am leaning on taking the over as well. So far I have a couple wagers locked in. I would jump on the Washington ML soon as I can see it bouncing back up again.
Washington Nationals -155
Cincinnati Reds -145
Best of Luck,
WD
Twitter: @WageDiscipline
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The Nationals took care of business as expected. Tomorrow they are back at it again. Haren is on the mound for the Nats and my confidence in him is shaky, however. I like how Washington is swinging the bats. I would not at all be surprised if the Nationals sweep the Marlins.
The other game I thought was going to go as expected was the Phillies falling to the Reds. The Phillies bats are just not getting it done for their pitching. They are emotionally shaky and their confidence does not look too high as they struggled against the Marlins. Bailey takes the hill for the Reds and I am confident in their bull pen to help him out if he gets into trouble early. I like the Reds to down the Phillies once again and see Chapman break that 100 MPH mark.
I am waiting on more information about the weather and game information for the Mets and Rockies double header. Again I like the Mets all the way through the series and I am leaning on taking the over as well. So far I have a couple wagers locked in. I would jump on the Washington ML soon as I can see it bouncing back up again.
The Nationals line has moved 11 cents and the Reds has moved 9 cents in my favor... Time to figure out this Mets double-header (If it goes off). There's anywhere between 4-12 inches of snow on the ground in Denver and some more expected this morning/afternoon.
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The Nationals line has moved 11 cents and the Reds has moved 9 cents in my favor... Time to figure out this Mets double-header (If it goes off). There's anywhere between 4-12 inches of snow on the ground in Denver and some more expected this morning/afternoon.
All right so most books should have the double header up by now as the game kicks off in a couple of hours. The aforementioned post is still valid and I still like the Mets to take this series from the Rockies. The Mets have an extra day of rest due under their belt due to their postponed game in Minnesota. I believe the hitters will get into a rhythm playing 18 innings today and see these totals pop over on both games. Incidentally, I am getting a great value with the Mets at +125 and +128 for the day and night game. Again, I am leaning toward the over on both games but not an official play for me.
New York Mets +125 @ 3:10 Eastern
New York Mets +128 @ 8:40 Eastern
Best of Luck,
WD
Twitter: @WageDiscipline
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All right so most books should have the double header up by now as the game kicks off in a couple of hours. The aforementioned post is still valid and I still like the Mets to take this series from the Rockies. The Mets have an extra day of rest due under their belt due to their postponed game in Minnesota. I believe the hitters will get into a rhythm playing 18 innings today and see these totals pop over on both games. Incidentally, I am getting a great value with the Mets at +125 and +128 for the day and night game. Again, I am leaning toward the over on both games but not an official play for me.
Man, the Mets let two wins slip through their fingers. Their pitching, all around, was terrible... In both games they blew a lead starting in the 5th inning. In retrospect, I should have made the over a play. Well ce la vie... On to the next one.
The Mets line should as 20 cents underdog. Either way, just about every pitcher was exhausted yesterday as the second game went into extra innings. I believe the Mets are going to win the next two and split the series. I still like the over and nothing has changed with my wagers. Again, there is a possibility of tonight's game being rained/snowed out. If and when they play (which could be another double header) I am playing the Mets and the over. The over/under should open around 10-10.5 once again.
The Nationals were spanked yesterday as the supposedly best team in baseball (preseason) in power rankings. The Nationals are not going to lose tonight and they are going to take 2 of the 3 games of this series. There was some improvement with the Marlins offense but I cannot vision a scenario where they do that twice in a row.
Philadelphia and Cincinnati had their game suspended and will resume the 9th inning at 5:30 PM eastern time (right before they start their normal game at 7:10). The reds should come out in the 9th inning and win that one along with their 7:10 game (I doubt their is a book that will let you bet that inning but if so take the Reds). Incidentally, the Reds slumped a little yesterday without scoring a run thru 8 innings but the Phillies continued their dismal plate appearances. The Phillies slump is much more prolific and viral compared to the Reds one day bump. The Reds will bounce back today and Dusty Baker (I can assure you) will light a fire under his teams fools to motivate them to move past the Phillies with a not-so clean sweep.
Other than the Mets game (waiting on the line) the other two are locked in.
Washington Nationals -164
Cincinnati Reds -132
Best of Luck,
WD
Twitter: @WageDiscipline
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Man, the Mets let two wins slip through their fingers. Their pitching, all around, was terrible... In both games they blew a lead starting in the 5th inning. In retrospect, I should have made the over a play. Well ce la vie... On to the next one.
The Mets line should as 20 cents underdog. Either way, just about every pitcher was exhausted yesterday as the second game went into extra innings. I believe the Mets are going to win the next two and split the series. I still like the over and nothing has changed with my wagers. Again, there is a possibility of tonight's game being rained/snowed out. If and when they play (which could be another double header) I am playing the Mets and the over. The over/under should open around 10-10.5 once again.
The Nationals were spanked yesterday as the supposedly best team in baseball (preseason) in power rankings. The Nationals are not going to lose tonight and they are going to take 2 of the 3 games of this series. There was some improvement with the Marlins offense but I cannot vision a scenario where they do that twice in a row.
Philadelphia and Cincinnati had their game suspended and will resume the 9th inning at 5:30 PM eastern time (right before they start their normal game at 7:10). The reds should come out in the 9th inning and win that one along with their 7:10 game (I doubt their is a book that will let you bet that inning but if so take the Reds). Incidentally, the Reds slumped a little yesterday without scoring a run thru 8 innings but the Phillies continued their dismal plate appearances. The Phillies slump is much more prolific and viral compared to the Reds one day bump. The Reds will bounce back today and Dusty Baker (I can assure you) will light a fire under his teams fools to motivate them to move past the Phillies with a not-so clean sweep.
Other than the Mets game (waiting on the line) the other two are locked in.
Well once again the Mets/Rockies game was postponed. The weather out here is terrible but both teams get a much needed day of rest after playing 19 innings yesterday. Tomorrow they will finish up their series with an afternoon game which hopefully I will get to go to. Once the lines become available I expect to see the Mets as a 15-20 cents underdog once again. I will take that and the over due to the day of rest for these clubs.
On a positive note, the Nationals walked away with a win against Miami as expected and the Reds wrecked the Phillies. This is good news because the Phillies are becoming more and more demoralized as this slump continues.
The Phillies will host the Cardinals tomorrow and with the exception of tonight's loss St. Louis has been scoring runs (33 runs in the last 6 games compared to the Phillies 10 runs). I like the Cardinals in this series as long as the Phillies continue to prove they just cannot produce runs.
Cincinnati begins their series with the Marlins coming into town. Cincinnati just swept the Phillies and have had a major confidence boost after their loses to the Pirates and St. Louis. I like the Reds this whole series. The will be priced as around a 50 cents favorite but I will take it. So, we wait for the Mets line to come out but in the meantime I locked in the following wagers.
Cincinnati Reds -153
Saint Louis Cardinals -103
Best of Luck,
WD
Twitter: @WageDiscipline
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Well once again the Mets/Rockies game was postponed. The weather out here is terrible but both teams get a much needed day of rest after playing 19 innings yesterday. Tomorrow they will finish up their series with an afternoon game which hopefully I will get to go to. Once the lines become available I expect to see the Mets as a 15-20 cents underdog once again. I will take that and the over due to the day of rest for these clubs.
On a positive note, the Nationals walked away with a win against Miami as expected and the Reds wrecked the Phillies. This is good news because the Phillies are becoming more and more demoralized as this slump continues.
The Phillies will host the Cardinals tomorrow and with the exception of tonight's loss St. Louis has been scoring runs (33 runs in the last 6 games compared to the Phillies 10 runs). I like the Cardinals in this series as long as the Phillies continue to prove they just cannot produce runs.
Cincinnati begins their series with the Marlins coming into town. Cincinnati just swept the Phillies and have had a major confidence boost after their loses to the Pirates and St. Louis. I like the Reds this whole series. The will be priced as around a 50 cents favorite but I will take it. So, we wait for the Mets line to come out but in the meantime I locked in the following wagers.
Well this morning I checked my books and the Mets/Rockies line is still unavailable. I am assuming they are waiting for a weather report closer to game time. Anyway, the Reds lines moved 17 cents in my favor and the Cardinals move 5 cents in my favor. Needless-to-say, I am still waiting for that Mets line to come out. I am going to stick with the Mets and the over. I predict the Mets to still be around a 20 cents underdog and the O/U to be 10.
I am going to head down to the game today and tough it out in the cold weather. Nothing better than getting great seats on a day game when it is cold.
Best of Luck
WD
Twitter: @WageDiscipline
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Well this morning I checked my books and the Mets/Rockies line is still unavailable. I am assuming they are waiting for a weather report closer to game time. Anyway, the Reds lines moved 17 cents in my favor and the Cardinals move 5 cents in my favor. Needless-to-say, I am still waiting for that Mets line to come out. I am going to stick with the Mets and the over. I predict the Mets to still be around a 20 cents underdog and the O/U to be 10.
I am going to head down to the game today and tough it out in the cold weather. Nothing better than getting great seats on a day game when it is cold.
While I wait for this Mets line to begin posting at the books I was just thinking about the Braves. They are beginning a long road trip in Pittsburgh for four games. They are only a 13 cents underdog and I foresee Atlanta taking 3 of 4 from Pittsburgh. Today I also like the over 8.
Atlanta Braves -113
Atlanta Braves/Pittsburgh Pirates over 8 -110
Best of Luck,
WD
Twitter: @WageDiscipline
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While I wait for this Mets line to begin posting at the books I was just thinking about the Braves. They are beginning a long road trip in Pittsburgh for four games. They are only a 13 cents underdog and I foresee Atlanta taking 3 of 4 from Pittsburgh. Today I also like the over 8.
Definitely some games going in my favor today. I was at the Mets game and could just sense that they were ready to get back to New York. Which leads me to their next series with the Nationals. The Nationals are a better ball club and seeing how the Mets were challenged by the Rockies for the past week I am going with the Nats in this series.
The next game that pops out to me is Atlanta/Pittsburgh. I like Atlanta to win the series but I am still uncertain about Hudson on the mound tomorrow. So, when in doubt with the money line or run line then I will go with the total. I like the over in this game. Anyway, those are the current games that stand out to me right now.
Washington Nationals -123
Atlanta Braves/Pittsburgh Pirates over 7 -110
Best of Luck,
WD
Twitter: @WageDiscipline
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Definitely some games going in my favor today. I was at the Mets game and could just sense that they were ready to get back to New York. Which leads me to their next series with the Nationals. The Nationals are a better ball club and seeing how the Mets were challenged by the Rockies for the past week I am going with the Nats in this series.
The next game that pops out to me is Atlanta/Pittsburgh. I like Atlanta to win the series but I am still uncertain about Hudson on the mound tomorrow. So, when in doubt with the money line or run line then I will go with the total. I like the over in this game. Anyway, those are the current games that stand out to me right now.
I have been thinking about the Cardinals/Phillies game all day. What I have come up with is that Roy Halladay had a rough couple starts. He ended that with his last game and as a Cy Young winner I can't see him going 1-3 to start the season. The Phillies put up 3 runs last night and there were some signs of life. If they can get to 5 tonight I think they win the game. I believe Halladay will hold the Cardinals at bay for at least five innings so I am going to trust my gut and back the Phillies and more importantly back Halladay.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Home +110
Best of Luck,
WD
Twitter: @WageDiscipline
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I have been thinking about the Cardinals/Phillies game all day. What I have come up with is that Roy Halladay had a rough couple starts. He ended that with his last game and as a Cy Young winner I can't see him going 1-3 to start the season. The Phillies put up 3 runs last night and there were some signs of life. If they can get to 5 tonight I think they win the game. I believe Halladay will hold the Cardinals at bay for at least five innings so I am going to trust my gut and back the Phillies and more importantly back Halladay.
Also I like the Phillies team total over 3.5 tonight. This Friday night game draw a large crowd with the temperatures in the low 70s and no rain until a few hours after game time. This just looks like a great situation play for Halladay in my opinion.
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Also I like the Phillies team total over 3.5 tonight. This Friday night game draw a large crowd with the temperatures in the low 70s and no rain until a few hours after game time. This just looks like a great situation play for Halladay in my opinion.
I like the Nationals tomorrow for sure and I like the over in that game as well. Washington should work Hefner for at least 7 runs and the Mets should put up 3-4 runs as both teams are great offensively. Gio Gonzalez is putting up an ERA of a run higher than his career average. Right now he doesn't seem to have the same control and rhytm as he did last year. Every game Hefner has pitched the Mets have lost by an average of 4.7 runs. It is the Nationals turn to tune up the Mets tomorrow afternoon.
Washington Nationals -151
Washington Nationals/New York Mets over 7.5 -115
Best of Luck,
WD
Twitter: @WageDiscipline
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I like the Nationals tomorrow for sure and I like the over in that game as well. Washington should work Hefner for at least 7 runs and the Mets should put up 3-4 runs as both teams are great offensively. Gio Gonzalez is putting up an ERA of a run higher than his career average. Right now he doesn't seem to have the same control and rhytm as he did last year. Every game Hefner has pitched the Mets have lost by an average of 4.7 runs. It is the Nationals turn to tune up the Mets tomorrow afternoon.
I am going to step-out and take the run line today with the Reds. I think Arroyo will pitch well enough to hold the Marlins to a couple runs. When LeBlanc is pitching the Marlins are giving up an average of 6.3 runs. Incidentally, I like the Reds to come back from last nights loss with some intensity. I am going to make this a half-bet though.
Cincinnati Reds RL -1.5 -115
Best of Luck,
WD
Twitter: @WageDiscipline
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I am going to step-out and take the run line today with the Reds. I think Arroyo will pitch well enough to hold the Marlins to a couple runs. When LeBlanc is pitching the Marlins are giving up an average of 6.3 runs. Incidentally, I like the Reds to come back from last nights loss with some intensity. I am going to make this a half-bet though.
Today the pendulum swung my way. Glad I caught some breaks here and there and came out on top. I am about to take a look at tomorrow's card. One thing to be cognizant of for tomorrow is that the Braves are looking to avoid three straight losses. It is going to be tough as they have only scored an average of 2.3 runs during their series with the Pirates.
Regards,
WD
Twitter: @WageDiscipline
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Today the pendulum swung my way. Glad I caught some breaks here and there and came out on top. I am about to take a look at tomorrow's card. One thing to be cognizant of for tomorrow is that the Braves are looking to avoid three straight losses. It is going to be tough as they have only scored an average of 2.3 runs during their series with the Pirates.
Speaking of tomorrow's card... Washington does not want to drop this series against the Mets and their ace so far is on the hill tomorrow. Zimmerman is 3-0 and is getting run support. In his first three starts the bats are giving him an average of 7 runs a game. Additionally, he goes deep: 9 innings against Miami, 7 innings against the White Sox, and 6 innings against Miami with an average 7.3 innings per game. That is great to see out of a starter which reminds me of a tough and disciplined pitcher that digs deep and gives 110%.
Gee gets the call for the Mets tomorrow and I was at his last game with the Rockies. He is the complete opposite of Zimmerman. He is 0-3, has not made it past the 6th inning, and has an ERA three times as much as Zimmerman. Gee is averaging 4.3 innings a game and his last game he was pulled after 5 runs scored by the Rockies. This is a complete mismatch with an explosively hitting team like the Nationals. I would go so far as to say that the bats of the Nationals are going to be similar to the ones he saw a few days ago in Denver. I really like this situation as the Nationals go into this game after winning a tight one today and then get to face a lower tier pitcher tomorrow.
Washington Nationals -146
Best of Luck,
WD
Twitter:@WageDiscipline
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Speaking of tomorrow's card... Washington does not want to drop this series against the Mets and their ace so far is on the hill tomorrow. Zimmerman is 3-0 and is getting run support. In his first three starts the bats are giving him an average of 7 runs a game. Additionally, he goes deep: 9 innings against Miami, 7 innings against the White Sox, and 6 innings against Miami with an average 7.3 innings per game. That is great to see out of a starter which reminds me of a tough and disciplined pitcher that digs deep and gives 110%.
Gee gets the call for the Mets tomorrow and I was at his last game with the Rockies. He is the complete opposite of Zimmerman. He is 0-3, has not made it past the 6th inning, and has an ERA three times as much as Zimmerman. Gee is averaging 4.3 innings a game and his last game he was pulled after 5 runs scored by the Rockies. This is a complete mismatch with an explosively hitting team like the Nationals. I would go so far as to say that the bats of the Nationals are going to be similar to the ones he saw a few days ago in Denver. I really like this situation as the Nationals go into this game after winning a tight one today and then get to face a lower tier pitcher tomorrow.
The line on the over/under for the Nationals/Mets game has been relatively static and actually has moved a few cents against the over. I can see the Nationals covering this spread alone. If Gee does not get rocked in the first couple innings then I think the Nationals will chip away at him and he should live up to his 4 runs per game. I think it will be more like 6 runs for the Nationals and a few for the Mets.
The other over/under I like that I am betting against the public on is the Atlanta/Pittsburgh match-up. I was waiting for the line to come down half a point to 7 and it did over night. This line is just too low for a series ending game that the Braves need in order to split. I can see the game going more like the first game (around a 6-4 total).
Washington Nationals/New York Mets over 7.5
Atlanta Braves/Pittsburgh Pirates over 7
Best of Luck,
WD
Twitter: @WageDiscipline
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The line on the over/under for the Nationals/Mets game has been relatively static and actually has moved a few cents against the over. I can see the Nationals covering this spread alone. If Gee does not get rocked in the first couple innings then I think the Nationals will chip away at him and he should live up to his 4 runs per game. I think it will be more like 6 runs for the Nationals and a few for the Mets.
The other over/under I like that I am betting against the public on is the Atlanta/Pittsburgh match-up. I was waiting for the line to come down half a point to 7 and it did over night. This line is just too low for a series ending game that the Braves need in order to split. I can see the game going more like the first game (around a 6-4 total).
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