PLAY: #3.....DAY 1 OF 4

4 day commitment to following my NCAAFB & NFL plays (Nov 24 – Nov 27) and increasing your total bankroll by a minimum of 41.67%.  Here is the link to the original promise/post: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101191699

Write up for Miami @ Dallas:

Miami @ Dallas -7 / 44.5 O/U:

This game takes on the ‘Perfect Storm’ scenario:  One team over valued vs a team that is under valued.  Let’s look at how this is, and why….

The Squares are pretty close to even split on this game. Keep in mind this a line that is 100% media motivated (I know I know what game isn’t right?  But not to this extent). 

·       Tony Romo:  Romo’s season is not too bad, despite a couple really bad games that the media (ESPN) jumped all over.  Think about that a second; Romo has been chastised in the media, while Cutler (Bears.. using him to show a point fellas) has become a new NFL Darling, but Romo has the 4^th best passer rating (97.7) in the NFL while Cutler is 12^th (84.4).  Romo has a TD/INT ratio of 16/7, while Cutler has 11/6.  Romo’s completion % is 64.7, while Cutler’s is an even 58%.  Ok, ok… I will let the Cutler thing go now, but without looking at the numbers and only listening (as the betting public does) to the media, you would think that Cutler was blowing Romo’s doors off this season. 

·       Why isn’t Miami a +14 this game?  Simple, they went from an 0-7 team to a team on a 3 game winning streak in the last 3 weeks… it makes great news for sports media.  Let’s look at that 3 game streak:  they beat the Bills handily last week and the bills have still been holding the Squares interest (at least up until that loss) 35-8 domination correct?  Nope, not at all.  First downs: Bills 14 / Dolphins 16……. Passing yds: Bills 209 / Dolphins 160……total yrds:  Bills 247 / Dolphins 242…… Time of possession:  Bills 28:54 / Dolphins 31:06….. looking at these stats would you possibly think this game was a 27 pt margin of victory?  I wouldn’t.  The major difference in this game came from the Bills being -2 in turnovers, the timing of those turnovers, and the Bills allowing themselves to be one dimensional—buffalo’s pass play percentage (not counting Fitzpatrick’s scrambles) was a head scratching 76%.... what Buffalo play callers were thinking I have not a clue, but it sure makes defending that team pretty easy.

·       Miami (on their 3 game win streak) has attempted 72 pass plays, and 88 rush plays (45% pass plays) against ranked run defenses (in yds allowed rushing) of Buffalo ranked 20^th,  Washington ranked 18^th, and KC ranked 28^th… so protecting Moore from making game losing plays by running the vast majority of times worked well vs 22^nd ranked (ave ranking) teams, but now they are going against Dallas’s 11^th ranked (in yds allowed rushing) defense.  (NOTE: Dallas has allowed an unimpressive ave per carry of 4.3 yds, but take one game out of the equation (the Philly game that seemed to just go to hell for Dallas) where they gave up 239 yds on 38 carries (ave 6.3 per) and Dallas would be at an average of 3.9 allowed per carry, which would have them tied 8^th in the NFL.  Another note to consider is that Dallas is ranked 7^th in the NFL for rushing attempts; teams abandon the run against them for a reason.  My point here is that Matt Moore is going to have to pass 33+ attempts, which is something that tends to bod badly for QB’s with 78.9 passer ratings and a TD / INT ratio of 4/5 vs a team ranked 7^th (tied for 7^th) in total ints, and tied for 10^th in QB sacks.  Also note that Miami allows that Miami is ranked 26^th in sacks allowed (30).

·       Dallas’s rushing attack is ranked 10^th, and passing attack is ranked 6^th.  Miami’s pass D is ranked 25^th, and their run D is ranked 7^th.

·       Dallas is 4-1 @ home, and the Dolphins are 1-4 on the road.

Keep in mind, this Miami team is the EXACT team that was 0-7 just 3 weeks ago.  Dallas had 1 really bad game (on a national stage) vs philly, but other than that they lost to quality teams (NYJ, DET, NE by a combined total of 11 pts) Miami is not close to either one of these teams by my opinion.

·       Game plan: Miami’s game plan is irrelevant in this game b/c they are going to be forced into being reactive.  Dallas will focus on plugging the gaps, and controlling the ends.  Miami will have to then revert to screens and short passes which will result in Moore turning the ball over.  Once the game begins to get out of hand Moore will have to drop back (sacks sacks sacks).  Dallas will pound them in the passing game to loosen up Miami’s run D, then Dallas can start the ground and pound. 

·       Intangables:  Imagine if you were Tony Romo, had decent stats this season, but the media is making you out to be the next QB to be put out to pasture, and now you get the national stage on TDay going against the 25^th ranked pass defense when you have dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Demarco Murray and an array of unknown but competent recievers…what would you be thinking? 

·       This game should have a line of -10.5.

PLAY #3 (IN 4 DAY ONSLAUGHT):

PLAY #3:   DALLAS -7 FOR 7 UNITS  (I recommend that you watch this thread @ halftime, could very well be a profitable middle or protection middle )

Andreagassi6969… happy tday bro! 

Hbrewnat  glad to have you aboard! 

ONE9HOWARD  capped it at @ 45 O/U… too close 4 me man, but I would go Under if I had to play it 

Mozart nice win bro….glad to have you on this with us! 

thanks for your opinion man, keep up the good work!