Posted:
#1
Final 2010 NFL regular season: 58-44 @ 57% for + $9,600
NFL-P '10-'11 Record: 3-1 @ 75%
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#3: TEASER: Bears -3 / Steelers +4
Steelers +4 has tremendous ‘value’. Think about it, Pittsburgh at home getting 4 points. I know the rule on teasers is NOT to go across ZERO, but in this instance it’s an exception. I’ve outlined all my reasons why Pittsburgh and Chicago should win and cover their respective spreads, and by teasing down to these #’s, I’m increasing the ‘value’ on them even more so. I love this teaser and feel that even if 1 (hopefully not both) of the teams doesn’t cover the spread, this teaser still has tremendous shot at hitting. Good luck!
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My thoughts on the other 2 games:
GB/ATL – should be a good one. Atlanta at anything less that -3 at home has good ‘value’, but this GB team is really really good. A complete PASS for me. The value was also on the UNDER in that one and the RLM has confirmed it. With 64% on the OVER, the # moved from 45.5 opener to 43 in most ‘sharp’ books, bypassing the ‘key’ # of 44 in the process. The line-value is lost and so was the opportunity to bet the UNDER.
NE/NYJ – another game that is not as ‘easy’ as most people think. I know the public is pounding NE ~ 60%, but -9 is a lot in this game. In the 2nd game between the teams, the Jets were +4 underdogs when playing on the road in NE. In the first game in NY, the Jets were +3 point dogs, which translates to +9 dogs on the road. Consequently, this line is +9 also. Hmm…. What’s the accurate # +4 or +9 Jets? Well, I actually think the # is somewhere in between ~ +6 / +7 Jets. NE should win this one, but I’m not so sure that they’ll cover. Also, small lean to the OVER. I see the total has dropped from 45.5 opener to 44.5 now. It if gets to 43.5 the OVER might be a ‘small action’ wager for me.
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Futures Plays:
Alright, after handicapping all 4 games in great detail I decided to look at the odds pertaining to winning the Super Bowl this year. Here are the odds:
Falcons 11/2
Ravens 9/1
Bears 8/1
Packers 11/2
Pats 8/5
Jets 12/1
Steelers 6/1
Seahawks 30/1
I made 3 wagers here. I’ll include my logic below:
#1: Pats 8/5
#2: Steelers 6/1
#3: Bears 8/1
Obviously from my plays this week, I’m very high on both Steelers and Bears. I expect them both to win and move on the Championship games next week. I also expect the ATL/GB game to be a very close, tough battle. The ideal scenario is for them to beat the heck out of each other and for the Packers to win the game in the end. This would allow the Bears to host the NFC Championship game against the Packers, whom they’ve played really well against twice already. At home I would expect the Bears to win that one. Even if they play in Atlanta, Bears will have a great chance to win and go to the SB. Bears have a strong D, great Special Teams, and a QB that can make plays downfield – all ingredients necessary for a successful playoff team. This team is under-valued in my opinion and at 8/1 odds to win the SB has a lot of value. Steelers is another squad that I’m very high on. The best Defense in the league combined with terrific offense and a QB that has been there before. Hard to find many faults with them. The reason Steelers are at 6/1 odds is because of the Patriots are in the AFC also. Beating the same team twice in a season is tough to do and I would expect the Pats/Steelers AFC championship game to be a close game with both teams having a chance to win that one. (Yes, I think Pats will play Steelers next week). Finally, playing Pats at 8/5 odds is like ‘buying insurance’. As you pay for insurance over the years, you don’t expect to get ALL the value of your payments back in an emergency, but you expect to get some/most of it if you happen need it. Well, this is how I feel about this Pats ‘futures’ play. Since it’s not 2/1, I won’t get ALL the value of my 3 bets back if the Pats happen to win, but at least I will get MOST of it back. And I’m ok with that. “Insurance” wager at its finest
So the dream scenario would be if Steelers play the Bears in the Super Bowl. The 2nd choice would obviously be Pats/Bears Super Bowl. And who knows, it could definitely happen. And if it does, it will happen during the 25th anniversary of Bears’ last Super Bowl win. Guess who they played in that game in the ’85-’86 season?? Yup, the Patriots! My Super Bowl prediction for this year: Bears defeat the Patriots 46-10 and Lovie Smith gets carried off the field into the sunset!
NFL-P '10-'11 Record: 3-1 @ 75%
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#3: TEASER: Bears -3 / Steelers +4
Steelers +4 has tremendous ‘value’. Think about it, Pittsburgh at home getting 4 points. I know the rule on teasers is NOT to go across ZERO, but in this instance it’s an exception. I’ve outlined all my reasons why Pittsburgh and Chicago should win and cover their respective spreads, and by teasing down to these #’s, I’m increasing the ‘value’ on them even more so. I love this teaser and feel that even if 1 (hopefully not both) of the teams doesn’t cover the spread, this teaser still has tremendous shot at hitting. Good luck!
==========================================================
My thoughts on the other 2 games:
GB/ATL – should be a good one. Atlanta at anything less that -3 at home has good ‘value’, but this GB team is really really good. A complete PASS for me. The value was also on the UNDER in that one and the RLM has confirmed it. With 64% on the OVER, the # moved from 45.5 opener to 43 in most ‘sharp’ books, bypassing the ‘key’ # of 44 in the process. The line-value is lost and so was the opportunity to bet the UNDER.
NE/NYJ – another game that is not as ‘easy’ as most people think. I know the public is pounding NE ~ 60%, but -9 is a lot in this game. In the 2nd game between the teams, the Jets were +4 underdogs when playing on the road in NE. In the first game in NY, the Jets were +3 point dogs, which translates to +9 dogs on the road. Consequently, this line is +9 also. Hmm…. What’s the accurate # +4 or +9 Jets? Well, I actually think the # is somewhere in between ~ +6 / +7 Jets. NE should win this one, but I’m not so sure that they’ll cover. Also, small lean to the OVER. I see the total has dropped from 45.5 opener to 44.5 now. It if gets to 43.5 the OVER might be a ‘small action’ wager for me.
=======================================================
Futures Plays:
Alright, after handicapping all 4 games in great detail I decided to look at the odds pertaining to winning the Super Bowl this year. Here are the odds:
Falcons 11/2
Ravens 9/1
Bears 8/1
Packers 11/2
Pats 8/5
Jets 12/1
Steelers 6/1
Seahawks 30/1
I made 3 wagers here. I’ll include my logic below:
#1: Pats 8/5
#2: Steelers 6/1
#3: Bears 8/1
Obviously from my plays this week, I’m very high on both Steelers and Bears. I expect them both to win and move on the Championship games next week. I also expect the ATL/GB game to be a very close, tough battle. The ideal scenario is for them to beat the heck out of each other and for the Packers to win the game in the end. This would allow the Bears to host the NFC Championship game against the Packers, whom they’ve played really well against twice already. At home I would expect the Bears to win that one. Even if they play in Atlanta, Bears will have a great chance to win and go to the SB. Bears have a strong D, great Special Teams, and a QB that can make plays downfield – all ingredients necessary for a successful playoff team. This team is under-valued in my opinion and at 8/1 odds to win the SB has a lot of value. Steelers is another squad that I’m very high on. The best Defense in the league combined with terrific offense and a QB that has been there before. Hard to find many faults with them. The reason Steelers are at 6/1 odds is because of the Patriots are in the AFC also. Beating the same team twice in a season is tough to do and I would expect the Pats/Steelers AFC championship game to be a close game with both teams having a chance to win that one. (Yes, I think Pats will play Steelers next week). Finally, playing Pats at 8/5 odds is like ‘buying insurance’. As you pay for insurance over the years, you don’t expect to get ALL the value of your payments back in an emergency, but you expect to get some/most of it if you happen need it. Well, this is how I feel about this Pats ‘futures’ play. Since it’s not 2/1, I won’t get ALL the value of my 3 bets back if the Pats happen to win, but at least I will get MOST of it back. And I’m ok with that. “Insurance” wager at its finest
So the dream scenario would be if Steelers play the Bears in the Super Bowl. The 2nd choice would obviously be Pats/Bears Super Bowl. And who knows, it could definitely happen. And if it does, it will happen during the 25th anniversary of Bears’ last Super Bowl win. Guess who they played in that game in the ’85-’86 season?? Yup, the Patriots! My Super Bowl prediction for this year: Bears defeat the Patriots 46-10 and Lovie Smith gets carried off the field into the sunset!
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