NFL Playoffs!

Wildcard Weekend:

Saturday:

Jets (+2.5)

Sunday:

Packers (-1)

GL

leaning slightly to Dallas (-3.5) and NE (-3.5) in the other games, but don't feel strongly enough to bet either...

Jets - Bengals is a mismatch, in my opinion... a tough-minded team with a lot of veterans, a dominating running game and a stifling defense, against a team that is falling backwards into the playoffs and doesn't have a quality win since week 10... Bengals are making a lot of excuses about why they didn't win, from not trying, to not being able to cut... but the fact is they got their asses thoroughly handed to them for 60 minutes in that game, and both teams know who is who's bitch... people can say what they want about Ryan's comments, but they come from the heart... he knows the fact that they are the underdog in this game is a joke, and so will the rest of the world by the middle of the 2nd quarter...

i keep a spreadsheet that uses a logarithm to calculate a performance rating for each team for each game, based on their margin of victory (or defeat) and the strength of their opponent... these are the significant #s for the Jets and Bengals...

Regular season performance rating:

Jets - 6.6

Bengals - 6.2

Performance rating final 6 games:

Jets - 6.9

Bengals - 5.1

Performance rating final 3 games:

Jets - 7.7

Bengals - 6.0

Home / Away rating:

Jets - 7.1 (Away)

Bengals - 6.0 (Home)

Composite rating:

Jets - 69.8

Bengals - 59.0

based on these numbers, i come up with an accurate pointspread of Jets (-3.5) in this game... i see incredible value in this game!

for people wondering why the Jets are rated higher than the Bengals in all categories despite having a worse record, look no further than the pathetic schedule the Bengals played this year... you will also notice (as i did after i had calclulated all of these numbers) that the Jets are rated #8 by Sagarin with the Bengals at #14... also notice that the Jets H/A rating is higher (as a road team) than the Bengals (as a home team)... much higher, in fact...

this team can win on the road... they have a winning formula (running the ball and playing tough defense), and they are confident...

and best of all, they are a significantly better football team...

what does it spell?

J-E-T-S

will try to post the numbers for the Packers - Cards game tomorrow...

let's rock!

how quiet is the state of Ohio right now?

i know MI... but at the time i posted it, it was so quiet in the stadium i didn't think it was enough to just say, "How quiet is it in Cincy right now?"... the silence seemed too widespread...

thanks Wizer... saw that you were with me... i was very tuned in to this game... have to admit the Packers game is a bit more scary... all the numbers point to the Pack, just like today's game they pointed to the Jets... but the difference is in playoff experience... Arizona has a lot of key players with playoff experience... GB does not...

gonna stick with the play, though... Arizona is actually the worst team in the playoffs, according to my numbers... Cincy was the 2nd worst, and we saw how that turned out...

here are the breakdowns for the Packers and Cardinals, based on my performance ratings...

Regular season performance rating:

GB  - 6.3

ARI - 6.0

Performance rating final 6 games:

GB  - 7.1

ARI - 5.6

Performance rating final 3 games:

GB  - 8.0

ARI - 5.3

Home / Away rating:

GB  - 6.4 (Away)

ARI - 5.6 (Home)

Composite rating:

GB  - 68.2

ARI - 57.0

these numbers give me an accurate spread of GB (-3.5)... however, experience gives me more cause for concern in this game...

both teams have very weak ratings overall for a playoff team (6.3 and 6.0)... but some differences... Cards have finished on a downward trend, while the Packers are the hottest team outside of Dallas heading into the playoffs... Cards have been weak at home, surprisingly, and the Packers have been strong on the road... the overall composite of 57.0 for Arizona is even worse than Cincy (59.0)... this is a number that i feel gives you their power rating heading into the playoffs, and that is a really low number...

not as confident as the Jets play, but i still think it is the right side to be on for tomorrow...

incidentally, my numbers had Dallas and New England both by around 4-5 points... not strong enough for a play, since it is close to the spread...

1 up 1 down... nice throw Aaron...

Divisional round:

Saturday:

Ravens (+7)  -120

Sunday:

Jets (+7.5)

other bets:  Saints (-7), Ravens ML (+250), Cowboys ML (+125), Jets ML (+290), NYJ/SD (Un 42.5)

won't post all the numbers... but using the same method again for this week's games, here are the numbers for my two top plays...

Composite Rating:

Ravens - 66.6

Colts - 62.2

Composiste Rating:

Jets - 66.4

Chargers - 65.2

i come up with Indy (-1) and SD (-2) as accurate spreads for these games... the really potential money will be on the money lines... each of these dogs should cover about 80% of the time... and win close to 50%...

these are the ratings for the other games...

Composite Rating:

Cards - 55.0

Saints - 61.6

Composite Rating:

Cowboys - 66.4

Vikings - 61

my spreads are NO (-10) and Dal (-1)

4-2 on sides... 1-2 ML dogs... 1-0 ML parlay

well, after finally getting a chance to crunch some numbers for the Vikes-Saints game, i can't say i am quite as confident about the Vikings winning... i still couldn't bet the Saints, and might still take the Vikings with the 4 points...

it is really hard to completely dismiss the Vikings road struggles... even using the "Dome" argument is iffy... i think a lot of those struggles come down to motivation, and i don't see there being any problem... but still has to be a bit of a concern against a team with such a strong homefield advantage...

i was hoping to find that my numbers confirmed that the line was off by a FG or more, but they didn't... line is in the right range...

line for the Jets-Colts game is off by 3 to 4 points, though...

i already have a futures bet on Jets (15:1) to win the Super Bowl, so this might be a light weekend of betting for me... just hope for the Jets to pull it out...

most likely will do a 2-team ML parlay on the Vikes-Colts for a small amount...