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"Fade the Hilton" WEEK 13

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Legend
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Posted: #1

absolutely "down in flames" last week as the "Fades" went "Oh Fer". somewhat surprised it took until Week 12 for the players to "get their innings". here is this week offerings. FOLLOW or FADE

point spreads from Hilton contest. number of times selected in ( ). current (Saturday) LVS Superbook (former Hilton) point spread in [ ]. "contra" = least selected team vs most selected team. *** Thursday Night Game. for some reason BOTH teams in Thusday games tend to be "least selected" SO go to next least on list. COVER = lose but cover point spread. DNC = win BUT did not cover point spread.

there is NO "Secret Squirrel" or "inside information" here. there are numerous Sports web sites that post the information. just Google the contest.


WEEK 13

5 Most Selected
@ Bills -3 [-3 1/2 even] (255) vs Falcons (@ Toronto)
Buccaneers +8 [+7] (247) @ Panthers
Broncos -4 1/2 [-6 1/2] (231) @ Chiefs
@ Seahawks -4 1/2 [-4 1/2] vs Saints
@ Jets -2 [-2] vs Dolphins

5 Least Selected
Falcons +3 [+3 1/2 -120] (62) vs Bills (@ Toronto)
@ Browns -7 [-7] (64) VS Jaguars
@ 49ers -8 [-7 1/2] (76) vs Rams
Packers +6 1/2 (80) @ Lions ***
@ Cowboys -9 1/2 (85) vs Raiders ***
@ Panthers -8 [-7] (100) vs Buccaneers
@ Ravens -3 (104) vs Steelers ***
@ Redskins +1 [pick] (112) vs Giants

"Contra"
Falcons +3 1/2 -120 vs Bills
@ Panthers -7 vs Buccaneers

 
Captain
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Posted: #2
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
Damn, I bet the bills and its a CONTRA play. 
 
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Legend
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~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
Rookie
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Posted: #7

Again, thanks for keeping this thread alive and well.

Back the Falcons?  I cannot do it.

 
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Posted: #8
Bet with your wallet not your heart
 
Legend
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by eb130:

Again, thanks for keeping this thread alive and well.

Back the Falcons?  I cannot do it.

I just can't see HOW the Bills are the #1 selection this week. ya the Falcons STINK but they are playing @ Toronto in a dome and they gave the Saints a game their last only losing by 4

 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
we should fade contra and follow top 5 selection right? cause it looks like sharps got raped last week
 
Legend
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by BaddieCapping:

we should fade contra and follow top 5 selection right? cause it looks like sharps got raped last week

Ho BOY. Week 13 and I got explain AGAIN? "Fade the Hilton" is just what it says. you bet ON the teams playing AGAINST the 5 Most Selected teams (they are marked in bold) AND bet ON the "Contra" teams

"Fades" got beat up 0-5 for the FIRST losing week of the season last week BUT as the season goes on, the Hilton contestants usually get "mehr weiser" esp as "bottom feeders" drop out the contest.

"Follow or Fade", your choice

 
Captain
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Posted: #12
So do I fade the 5 most selected or follow? And where can I find these plays? 




Jk.... Thx for the post.  Like the falcons.  Happy the bears aren't in the top 5 and love the saints this week
 
Legend
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Posted: #13

So do I fade the 5 most selected or follow? And where can I find these plays? 

 your jerkin' me, right? I just explained it

 
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Posted: #14
1) LeRinkrat, you stated yourself that the Hilton contest is weeding out the crappy bettors as the season goes on.  However, last year's Hilton Top 5 records were compiled by a member last week, and it was seen that the trend was random, and fading HT5 in the last weeks was just as worthy as following.  This only leads me to believe that this week is not going to be any stronger than tailing week 12, NOR does it make sense to fade all of week 13.  

2) The only reason why Bills are 64% consensus-favored and liked, even though played in a dome setting, is because Atlanta F-N stinks on the road.  You see that 0-5 on their stats sheet?  The fact that both teams are 4th in their divisions makes it clear that with the "home" field advantage, there is value with the Bills here.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
Big fan of the system lerink, doubt this will go 0-5 again this week and fading them all.  Really like the Panthers and Chiefs
 
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Posted: #16


Falcons +3 1/2 -120 vs Bills
@ Panthers -7 vs Buccaneers

[/Quote]

Love the Falcons play! BOL and thank you for your research!

 
Legend
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Posted: #17
rat
 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
so whats the top 5 plays pls?.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #19
Top 5. Read post 1
 
Captain
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Posted: #20
LeRink.. correct me if I'm wrong but the Panthers shouldn't be a 'contra' play because they are not "top 5" least selected. They are 6th down the list (for some reason you included 8 least selected this week).

Am I missing something? 

PS - I kinda like the Panthers and def like the Bills 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by DiscoD69:

LeRink.. correct me if I'm wrong but the Panthers shouldn't be a 'contra' play because they are not "top 5" least selected. They are 6th down the list (for some reason you included 8 least selected this week).

Am I missing something? 

PS - I kinda like the Panthers and def like the Bills 


not counting Thanksgiving games, as most people don't have picks in by then...
 
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Posted: #22
What is Contra?
 
Captain
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by telindros:



not counting Thanksgiving games, as most people don't have picks in by then...

Ah I see so we're striking the Packers & Cowboys from the list. I gotcha.

Thanks 
 
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Posted: #24
??
 
 
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Posted: #25
I've been hot on ATL this whole week.  Happy to see them on the Hilton's top 5!
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