Super Bowl!!!

People still don't respect Ryan and the crew. All this NE love is crazy. Yes they are a great team but they are beatable. Don't use the Pitt game as an example. Losing Bell really messed up their game plan. They doubled Brown all game but didn't make adjustments. They had a safety over the top and took away the middle. I expect Julio to get the same treatment but I don't care. Julio can beat the double teams. He is much more physical than any receiver NE has faced. I think he's taller than the whole secondary. Go ahead and double him. Who's gonna stop Freeman and Coleman. Sanu and Gabriel in the slot. Atlanta is loaded offensively and can score in bunches.

Atlanta has the weaker defense which is why I'm inclined to think it's going to be a shootout. So I'll take the over, Atlanta and parlay both. Even add more at half. These are the 1st and 3rd ranked offenses with both QB's playing well right now.

Atlanta has a great coaching staff and a genius OC. Shan Shan will fine weaknesses in NE's armor. They will nibble nibble nibble then break a big play with Julio. Expecting a close game back and forth scoring.
34 - 30 Atlanta. Atlanta will be up by 4-6 points late in the game.

Here's a little more proof that when Atlanta faces a strong defense they score below their season average:

Patriots also had 5 games to look at against bottom tier defenses (12 teams that allowed the most points in the league), ATL for reference is 6th worst or right in the middle.

My original estimation of 

I think when you compare defenses, you should perhaps consider recent history, not full season. Atlanta has really played tons better since first half, certainly vs Seattle and GB. I live in ATL and am still amazed at their overall improvement during the season. I even picked GB last game, and I think I am now finally only now convinced at least to the point where I can't just make an auto-Patriots pick as I expected to do. I may look harder at team totals or O/U instead. Very tough to go against Brady but ATL just destroyed a very hot team on both sides of the ball. 

Quote Originally Posted by bigboofy:

I think when you compare defenses, you should perhaps consider recent history, not full season. Atlanta has really played tons better since first half, certainly vs Seattle and GB. I live in ATL and am still amazed at their overall improvement during the season. I even picked GB last game, and I think I am now finally only now convinced at least to the point where I can't just make an auto-Patriots pick as I expected to do. I may look harder at team totals or O/U instead. Very tough to go against Brady but ATL just destroyed a very hot team on both sides of the ball. 

FWIW Green Bay was on my list of bottom tier defenses based on the # points they allow per game.  #12 worst I believe.

ATL scored more than NE when they played DEN (both games at DEN)and SEA beat NE in Foxborough. ATL would have won in SEA if not for the holding non-call bs (and yes both games Earl Thomas played-they destroyed SEA when Earl thomas didnt play). NE played bottom of the barrel teams to pad their stats, against qbs like kessler, kaepernick and landry jones. Not saying ATL will win but they havent faced an offense like this before, they will have to outscore this team to win.

...and most important Brady was out first 4 weeks (25% of the season) and Pats had a goose egg during one of those weeks vs. the Bills.

Top 12 teams Patriots have played ranked by Points For and how many points the Patriots surrended:

Good points NYC!!! I think Pats win in a good game 31-24.