People still don't respect Ryan and the crew. All this NE love is crazy. Yes they are a great team but they are beatable. Don't use the Pitt game as an example. Losing Bell really messed up their game plan. They doubled Brown all game but didn't make adjustments. They had a safety over the top and took away the middle. I expect Julio to get the same treatment but I don't care. Julio can beat the double teams. He is much more physical than any receiver NE has faced. I think he's taller than the whole secondary. Go ahead and double him. Who's gonna stop Freeman and Coleman. Sanu and Gabriel in the slot. Atlanta is loaded offensively and can score in bunches.
Atlanta has the weaker defense which is why I'm inclined to think it's going to be a shootout. So I'll take the over, Atlanta and parlay both. Even add more at half. These are the 1st and 3rd ranked offenses with both QB's playing well right now.
Atlanta has a great coaching staff and a genius OC. Shan Shan will fine weaknesses in NE's armor. They will nibble nibble nibble then break a big play with Julio. Expecting a close game back and forth scoring. 34 - 30 Atlanta. Atlanta will be up by 4-6 points late in the game.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
People still don't respect Ryan and the crew. All this NE love is crazy. Yes they are a great team but they are beatable. Don't use the Pitt game as an example. Losing Bell really messed up their game plan. They doubled Brown all game but didn't make adjustments. They had a safety over the top and took away the middle. I expect Julio to get the same treatment but I don't care. Julio can beat the double teams. He is much more physical than any receiver NE has faced. I think he's taller than the whole secondary. Go ahead and double him. Who's gonna stop Freeman and Coleman. Sanu and Gabriel in the slot. Atlanta is loaded offensively and can score in bunches.
Atlanta has the weaker defense which is why I'm inclined to think it's going to be a shootout. So I'll take the over, Atlanta and parlay both. Even add more at half. These are the 1st and 3rd ranked offenses with both QB's playing well right now.
Atlanta has a great coaching staff and a genius OC. Shan Shan will fine weaknesses in NE's armor. They will nibble nibble nibble then break a big play with Julio. Expecting a close game back and forth scoring. 34 - 30 Atlanta. Atlanta will be up by 4-6 points late in the game.
Atlanta has the weaker defense which is why I'm inclined to think it's going to be a shootout. So I'll take the over, Atlanta and parlay both.
Here's the flaw in your logic. You can't say Patriots have a stronger defense and then totally discount it. Patriots gave up fewest points in the league. Atlanta ranked 26th out of 32 teams when it comes to points allowed. Defense wins championships.
The average PA in the league is 364
Atlanta allows 10.2% more points per game.
New England allows -45.8% less points per game.
If you adjust each team's "points for" respectively you get:
Atlanta = 540 * ( 1 - .458) = 292.7
New England = 441 * ( 1 + .102) = 486
Normalize to 1 game in the season (divide by 16)
Atlanta = 18.3
New England = 30.4
Some may say New England had a softer schedule - adjust the above numbers accordingly. It would have to take some serious fudging to put Atlanta ahead by any significance.
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Quote Originally Posted by Mortgageguru:
Atlanta has the weaker defense which is why I'm inclined to think it's going to be a shootout. So I'll take the over, Atlanta and parlay both.
Here's the flaw in your logic. You can't say Patriots have a stronger defense and then totally discount it. Patriots gave up fewest points in the league. Atlanta ranked 26th out of 32 teams when it comes to points allowed. Defense wins championships.
The average PA in the league is 364
Atlanta allows 10.2% more points per game.
New England allows -45.8% less points per game.
If you adjust each team's "points for" respectively you get:
Atlanta = 540 * ( 1 - .458) = 292.7
New England = 441 * ( 1 + .102) = 486
Normalize to 1 game in the season (divide by 16)
Atlanta = 18.3
New England = 30.4
Some may say New England had a softer schedule - adjust the above numbers accordingly. It would have to take some serious fudging to put Atlanta ahead by any significance.
Here's a little more proof that when Atlanta faces a strong defense they score below their season average:
Falcons averaged 34 points per game on offense
the 5 games where they scored less than 30 points?
w/ each opponent's respective "points allowed" ranked during regular season:
12. Eagles, ATL scored 15
4. Broncos, ATL scored 23
3. Seahawks, ATL scored 24
15. Buccaneers, ATL scored 24
7. Chiefs, ATL scored 28
Patriots are #1 in "points allowed"
There's a good chance Patriots can hold Atlanta to no more than 24 points, using SEA and DEN as prime examples.
Now we just need to do a similar exercise to see how efficient the Patriots are against bottom tier "points allowed" defenses to get a reasonable prediction for their score.
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Here's a little more proof that when Atlanta faces a strong defense they score below their season average:
Falcons averaged 34 points per game on offense
the 5 games where they scored less than 30 points?
w/ each opponent's respective "points allowed" ranked during regular season:
12. Eagles, ATL scored 15
4. Broncos, ATL scored 23
3. Seahawks, ATL scored 24
15. Buccaneers, ATL scored 24
7. Chiefs, ATL scored 28
Patriots are #1 in "points allowed"
There's a good chance Patriots can hold Atlanta to no more than 24 points, using SEA and DEN as prime examples.
Now we just need to do a similar exercise to see how efficient the Patriots are against bottom tier "points allowed" defenses to get a reasonable prediction for their score.
Patriots also had 5 games to look at against bottom tier defenses (12 teams that allowed the most points in the league), ATL for reference is 6th worst or right in the middle.
Here's how they did, listed in similar fashion to the above with rankings being for WORST instead of BEST (i.e. 1 = worst in points allowed).
5. Jets, NEP scored 41
3. Browns, NEP scored 33
1. 49er's, NEP scored 30
10. Rams, NEP scored 26
5. Jets, NEP scored 22
Using the median of the scores above so as to not skew the predicted score result we get a score of 30.
Seems perfectly reasonable that New England could put up 30 points against Atlanta consider 6 teams managed to this past season with 3 other teams scoring at least 28 points, so more than half of Atlanta's games they had given up at least 28 points. Patriots are certainly in the top half the league to be facing them in the Super Bowl.
Patriots 30
Falcons 24
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Patriots also had 5 games to look at against bottom tier defenses (12 teams that allowed the most points in the league), ATL for reference is 6th worst or right in the middle.
Here's how they did, listed in similar fashion to the above with rankings being for WORST instead of BEST (i.e. 1 = worst in points allowed).
5. Jets, NEP scored 41
3. Browns, NEP scored 33
1. 49er's, NEP scored 30
10. Rams, NEP scored 26
5. Jets, NEP scored 22
Using the median of the scores above so as to not skew the predicted score result we get a score of 30.
Seems perfectly reasonable that New England could put up 30 points against Atlanta consider 6 teams managed to this past season with 3 other teams scoring at least 28 points, so more than half of Atlanta's games they had given up at least 28 points. Patriots are certainly in the top half the league to be facing them in the Super Bowl.
I think when you compare defenses, you should perhaps consider recent history, not full season. Atlanta has really played tons better since first half, certainly vs Seattle and GB. I live in ATL and am still amazed at their overall improvement during the season. I even picked GB last game, and I think I am now finally only now convinced at least to the point where I can't just make an auto-Patriots pick as I expected to do. I may look harder at team totals or O/U instead. Very tough to go against Brady but ATL just destroyed a very hot team on both sides of the ball.
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I think when you compare defenses, you should perhaps consider recent history, not full season. Atlanta has really played tons better since first half, certainly vs Seattle and GB. I live in ATL and am still amazed at their overall improvement during the season. I even picked GB last game, and I think I am now finally only now convinced at least to the point where I can't just make an auto-Patriots pick as I expected to do. I may look harder at team totals or O/U instead. Very tough to go against Brady but ATL just destroyed a very hot team on both sides of the ball.
I think when you compare defenses, you should perhaps consider recent history, not full season. Atlanta has really played tons better since first half, certainly vs Seattle and GB. I live in ATL and am still amazed at their overall improvement during the season. I even picked GB last game, and I think I am now finally only now convinced at least to the point where I can't just make an auto-Patriots pick as I expected to do. I may look harder at team totals or O/U instead. Very tough to go against Brady but ATL just destroyed a very hot team on both sides of the ball.
Problem with 2 games is it is an awfully small sample size.
Just looking at the Green Bay game, ATL played at a very high rate, 76% 3rd down conversion rate is insane and says more about Green Bay's lack of Defense then it does of ATL's defense.
Here are 3 main stats for Green Bay:
Passing Yards/Game: 269.7287
Rushing Yards/Game: 103.399
3rd down conversion rate: 4640
First number is their season average, Second number is in their loss to ATL. So they threw for more than average, rushed 4 less yards and their conversion rate was within 1 (out of 10 chances).
Can't really say ATL had that stellar of a defense, it was more of a lack of defense for GB. I didn't look at the Seattle game, but even if their D won them the game, that is a 1 game sample size.
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Quote Originally Posted by bigboofy:
I think when you compare defenses, you should perhaps consider recent history, not full season. Atlanta has really played tons better since first half, certainly vs Seattle and GB. I live in ATL and am still amazed at their overall improvement during the season. I even picked GB last game, and I think I am now finally only now convinced at least to the point where I can't just make an auto-Patriots pick as I expected to do. I may look harder at team totals or O/U instead. Very tough to go against Brady but ATL just destroyed a very hot team on both sides of the ball.
Problem with 2 games is it is an awfully small sample size.
Just looking at the Green Bay game, ATL played at a very high rate, 76% 3rd down conversion rate is insane and says more about Green Bay's lack of Defense then it does of ATL's defense.
Here are 3 main stats for Green Bay:
Passing Yards/Game: 269.7287
Rushing Yards/Game: 103.399
3rd down conversion rate: 4640
First number is their season average, Second number is in their loss to ATL. So they threw for more than average, rushed 4 less yards and their conversion rate was within 1 (out of 10 chances).
Can't really say ATL had that stellar of a defense, it was more of a lack of defense for GB. I didn't look at the Seattle game, but even if their D won them the game, that is a 1 game sample size.
ATL scored more than NE when they played DEN (both games at DEN)and SEA beat NE in Foxborough. ATL would have won in SEA if not for the holding non-call bs (and yes both games Earl Thomas played-they destroyed SEA when Earl thomas didnt play). NE played bottom of the barrel teams to pad their stats, against qbs like kessler, kaepernick and landry jones. Not saying ATL will win but they havent faced an offense like this before, they will have to outscore this team to win.
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ATL scored more than NE when they played DEN (both games at DEN)and SEA beat NE in Foxborough. ATL would have won in SEA if not for the holding non-call bs (and yes both games Earl Thomas played-they destroyed SEA when Earl thomas didnt play). NE played bottom of the barrel teams to pad their stats, against qbs like kessler, kaepernick and landry jones. Not saying ATL will win but they havent faced an offense like this before, they will have to outscore this team to win.
ATL scored more than NE when they played DEN (both games at DEN)and SEA beat NE in Foxborough. ATL would have won in SEA if not for the holding non-call bs (and yes both games Earl Thomas played-they destroyed SEA when Earl thomas didnt play). NE played bottom of the barrel teams to pad their stats, against qbs like kessler, kaepernick and landry jones. Not saying ATL will win but they havent faced an offense like this before, they will have to outscore this team to win.
ATL is #1 in Points Scored
NOS is #2 in Points Scored
NEP is #3 in Points Scored
Saints played ATL twice and scored 32 points each time. This just goes to prove my point that NEP should be able to score at least 30 points against Atlanta.
The fact that NEP has not played ATL nor NOS does not mean they cannot contain them. Conversely ATL nor NOS has played a defense as strong as the NEP and ATL has scored as few 15 points against lesser defenses (Philly). Not to mention only scoring 23, 24, 24, against Broncos, Bucs, and Seahawks respectively, all lesser defenses when measured by points allowed.
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Quote Originally Posted by sharkscore:
ATL scored more than NE when they played DEN (both games at DEN)and SEA beat NE in Foxborough. ATL would have won in SEA if not for the holding non-call bs (and yes both games Earl Thomas played-they destroyed SEA when Earl thomas didnt play). NE played bottom of the barrel teams to pad their stats, against qbs like kessler, kaepernick and landry jones. Not saying ATL will win but they havent faced an offense like this before, they will have to outscore this team to win.
ATL is #1 in Points Scored
NOS is #2 in Points Scored
NEP is #3 in Points Scored
Saints played ATL twice and scored 32 points each time. This just goes to prove my point that NEP should be able to score at least 30 points against Atlanta.
The fact that NEP has not played ATL nor NOS does not mean they cannot contain them. Conversely ATL nor NOS has played a defense as strong as the NEP and ATL has scored as few 15 points against lesser defenses (Philly). Not to mention only scoring 23, 24, 24, against Broncos, Bucs, and Seahawks respectively, all lesser defenses when measured by points allowed.
Top 12 teams Patriots have played ranked by Points For and how many points the Patriots surrended:
6. Arizona scored 21
10. Buffalo scored 16, 25
11. Pittsburgh scored 16, (and 17 in playoff)
Even with Atlanta being #1 in Points For, same argument as previously mentioned they have not played a defense as strong as NEP and NEP has contained 3 of the top 12 scoring offenses to 25 and under, not to mention 17 and under 3 times.
I still feel confident Patriots can contain Atlanta to between 18 and 24 points.
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Top 12 teams Patriots have played ranked by Points For and how many points the Patriots surrended:
6. Arizona scored 21
10. Buffalo scored 16, 25
11. Pittsburgh scored 16, (and 17 in playoff)
Even with Atlanta being #1 in Points For, same argument as previously mentioned they have not played a defense as strong as NEP and NEP has contained 3 of the top 12 scoring offenses to 25 and under, not to mention 17 and under 3 times.
I still feel confident Patriots can contain Atlanta to between 18 and 24 points.
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