Specifically, there were three big-time underdog upsets - one in sports and two in politics: Leicester City, Brexit and Donald Trump. That means you could only legally wager on one of those in Nevada – or anywhere else in the U.S. for that matter – but you could hit all three in betting-mad Britain.
So the Olde Country is where we must start.
Leicester City, an English Premier League soccer team that generally hasn’t been very premier, made an absolutely shocking run to the championship. At Ladbrokes in England, spokesperson Alex Donohue said Leicester was an overwhelming long shot, listed at 5,000/1 to open the season.
The Brexit referendum, in which British voters who favored exiting the European Union outnumbered those who favored remaining, was a 12/1 long shot on voting day, June 23. And yet, by the end of that day and to great surprise in Britain and worldwide, exit voters scored a 52 percent to 48 percent victory.
Then came time for America to provide the world with an upset of epic proportions. When Donald Trump declared in June 2015 that he would run for president, Ladbrokes posted his odds at 150/1.
By the time all three of those upsets cashed out, the damage total was epic, as well. At Ladbrokes alone, Leicester backers were paid out more than $6.1 million. Brexit bettors took a cool $1.2 million – though Ladbrokes made a profit on that proposition – and Trump tickets drew about $2.5 million.
“2016 will go down in history as the undisputed year of the underdog,” Donohue said. “It saw plenty of small-staking punters win life-changing sums, rewarding those who sensed an upset was afoot before the winds started to change.”
Indeed. But there were plenty of other upsets you could get on board for here in the U.S. Covers talks with a few Las Vegas bookmakers about some of the biggest underdogs and comebacks of the year.
CHICAGO CUBS
OK, so the Cubs were the strong favorite to win the World Series in 2016, long before the season began. But once they got into it with the American League champion Cleveland Indians, falling behind 3-1 in the Best-of-7 series, well, they were no longer a favorite.
Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip, said his shop and other MGM Resorts books had Chicago at +700 to make an improbable comeback. To win it all would require not only winning three straight, but the last two of those would be on the road at Cleveland, before another starved baseball fan base that hadn’t seen a World Series championship since the 1940s.
And yet Chicago did it, taking a thrilling Game 7 with an 8-7 victory in 10 innings.
“The Cubs coming down from a 3-1 deficit to win the Series after 100-plus years,” Stoneback said of who he put at the top of his 2016 underdog list. “The Indians themselves were an underdog story to even get to the World Series after entering the playoffs with a depleted pitching staff due to injuries. Neither team were real long shots, with the Cubs 6/1 entering the season and the Indians 40/1. But the way the Cubs won and the Indians getting there were very tough things to do.”
UFC 199
The UFC 199 card took place June 4 at The Forum in Los Angeles, home for so many years to a front-running Los Angeles Lakers Showtime team. Michael Bisping wasn’t even supposed to be in the building, let alone in the main event. But that’s how upsets work some times.
“Bisping was a last-minute fill-in for the injured Chris Weidman,” recalled Matthew Holt, CEO of CG Analytics, which supplies odds to CG Technology’s sportsbooks around Las Vegas. “Luke Rockhold admittedly didn’t even train or prepare once he found out Bisping was stepping in for Weidman, as the first time they fought, Rockhold dusted Bisping easily, submitting him in the second round.”
But past performance was no guarantee of future results in this case. Bisping was a +900 underdog to Rockhold’s -1,300 favorite status.
“Bisping landed the shot heard round the MMA world in Round 1, shocking Rockhold to win the UFC middleweight strap,” Holt said.
BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC
California Chrome has been the dominant race horse of the past few years, and seemed poised to win his first Breeders’ Cup Classic. But again, this is 2016. The stallion was basically the even-money favorite on race day, with second choice Arrogate at 5/2.
“California Chrome looked like a sure-fire winner coming around the final turn,” said Paul Imondi, a supervisor at the Treasure Island sportsbook. “And then Arrogate and Mike Smith just ran him down in the stretch. It was a classic finish.”
Arrogate won by just half a length, dealing No. 1 ranked racehorse California Chrome his only loss of 2016 in seven starts.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Under the best of circumstances, the Cavaliers faced an uphill battle in the NBA Finals, taking on defending champion Golden State. But trailing 3-1 in the Best-of-7 series, with two of the final three games at Golden State, made the challenge much more daunting.
At the South Point sportsbook, director Chris Andrews adjusted the series price on Cleveland to around +1,200, and noted others had it higher than that.
“We definitely had some takers on Cleveland,” said Andrews, and those players certainly did well. “When they take 12/1 and it wins, you’re gonna lose.”
However, Andrews was cautious with the pricing when Golden State took that 3-1 series lead, and it paid off in the end.
“We went into Game 7 where we didn’t need anything,” he said, noting he’d been able to balance out the overall action on the series by the time the Cavs and Warriors reached the decisive game.
LEICESTER CITY
Sportsbooks around Vegas just couldn’t help but keep coming back to this big underdog from across the pond. At the famed Superbook, inside the Westgate Las Vegas, Leicester City just couldn’t be beat as the underdog of the year after claiming the Premier League title for the 2015-16 season.
“We opened Leicester at 2500/1, and some European books had 5,000/1,” said Jeff Sherman, oddsmaker at the Superbook. “We had one $5 ticket at 2,000/1, one $10 ticket at 1,000/1 and one $5 ticket at 1,000/1. All other tickets were purchased at 60/1 or less.
“We were still a decent loser to the future pool, although most of Leicester's support here was at 9/2 or less, so some sizeable wagers were purchased at lower odds.”
Over at the South Point, Andrews is still marveling at Leicester’s title.
“I don’t believe in voodoo, but Leicester City is absolutely one that does not figure,” he said. “They probably should have been a million-to-one.”
A line like that, to put it in Trumpian terms, would have led to a YUGE payout in this year of the underdog. But even at Ladbrokes, where the biggest upsets seem to hit hardest, Donohue said it couldn’t have gone better to help promote betting.
“The accountants may say it was a terrible year,” he said. “But from a PR man's perspective, you couldn't have written a better script!
Got a big betting underdog that cashed in for you in 2016? Share it in the comment box below.
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Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
