With a major just a few weeks away, the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow features a stacked field – and some of them are going to come away sorry they showed up.
The Charlotte, North Carolina-based course hosted the PGA Championship in 2017 – and while it won't play quite as difficult as it did back then, it is by no means an easy test. The long bombers have a PGA betting edge here, with the course measuring nearly 7,600 yards.
We preview the field, break down the course and give our PGA betting picks, predictions and best bets for the Wells Fargo Championship.
Quail Hollow betting stats that matter
Quail Hollow is one of the more intriguing courses on tour. It rewards long hitters more than just about any other configuration, with the rough less punitive than you might expect at a championship-caliber course. SG: Off-the-Tee will be important, as always, but you might want to consider skewing toward distance over accuracy, since non-bombers are going to have long approaches.
That leads us to where the real value lies this week: SG: Approach. Approach shots north of 175 yards will be routine occurrences this week, with expansive greens and Bermudagrass surfaces greeting this week's field. If you aren't turning those long second and third shots into birdie opportunities, you're going to have a difficult time making headway this week.
Wells Fargo Championship outright winner bets
We're looking at a seven-player tier atop the betting odds list this week, and it's as star-studded as it gets for a non-major. Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas lead the way at +1,100 to prevail, with Bryson DeChambeau next in line at +1,400. Rory McIlroy (+1,600) and Xander Schauffele (+1,800) round out the top five, with Viktor Hovland (+2,000) and Webb Simpson (+2,200) at the back end of the top tier.
Who will win the Wells Fargo Championship? Here are our best picks:
Will Zalatoris (+2,800)
The hype continues! Don't be surprised to see Zalatoris wind up among the leaders in outright handle yet again, with a game that is well-suited to this course. Zalatoris comes in ranked fourth in SG: Approach (0.942), 20th in driving distance (307.6) and 22nd in Greens in Regulation success rate (69.4 percent). He has only played in one event since finishing second at The Masters, so he'll be fresh – and winning here would send a huge statement heading into his first PGA Championship.
Joaquin Niemann (+3,500)
There's a certain comfort in taking a golfer as steady as Niemann, who has made the cut in all 15 tournaments he has played in this year. He's coming off a T8 showing at the Valspar Championship last week, and has finished outside the Top 40 in just two events all season. His length off the tee (312.0) will serve him well here, as will his ability to generate birdie chances (69.8% GIR rate). Add in strong SG: Approach (40th) and SG: Putting numbers (26th), and you have a solid title candidate at a great price.
Wells Fargo Championship matchup predictions
Corey Conners Over Abraham Ancer (-138)
Both players share similar playing styles – they don't rank near the longest hitters on the tour, but they both sit inside the Top 10 in driving accuracy, and that still means something at Quail Hollow. That said, Conners has been the superior irons player from 175 yards and beyond, which is where both players will find themselves frequently this week. Conners' ninth-place showing in SG: Tee-to-Green should give him the edge in this marquee matchup.
Rory McIlroy over Xander Schauffele (-110)
We haven't seen Rory since he missed the cut at The Masters – and given his up-and-down form, we shouldn't be surprised to see the public look elsewhere this week. But here are McIlroy's finishes in his 10 prior visits to Quail Hollow: 1, CUT, 2, 10, 8, 1, 4, 22, 16, 8. That's domination you just don't see on the PGA Tour – and with the PGA Championship just around the corner, McIlroy will need to sharpen his game considerably. This is the place for him to do it
Wells Fargo Championship prop bets
Justin Thomas Top-10 Finish (+110)
You're getting identical odds on Thomas or Jon Rahm to post a Top-10 result, but we have a little more faith in Thomas to convert the wager. Not only does he rank third in SG: Approach for the season (1.129), he has been absolutely dialed in from the distances he'll likely see most frequently this weekend, ranking 19th in approaches from 175-200 yards and ninth from longer than 200 yards. He also won the PGA Championship the year it was held at Quail Hollow. Lock this one in confidently.
Denny McCarthy to Miss Cut (+120)
McCarthy is one of the most consistent putters on tour – but that's about all he has going for him in 2020-21. He ranks outside the Top 100 in GIR success rate (65.1 percent) and his iron game has been sorely lacking. He ranks 176th in approaches from 175-200 yards and outside the Top 200 in approach shots from longer than 200 yards. McCarthy will need to play well over his head to reach the weekend – and with his irons having betrayed him this year, we don't see that happening.
Wells Fargo Championship betting card
- Will Zalatoris Outright (+2,800)
- Joaquin Niemann Outright (+3,500)
- Corey Conners Over Abraham Ancer (-138)
- Rory McIlroy over Xander Schauffele (-110)
- Justin Thomas Top-10 Finish (+110)
- Denny McCarthy to Miss Cut (+120)
Where can I bet on the PGA?
You can bet on PGA odds at many online and casino sportsbooks, including PGA outrights, matchup bets, and other golf props. Head over to our best golf betting sites for the top spots to bet on PGA odds in your area.
