Welcome to what some folks call the best week in golf: the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale.
And considering its status as a "designated event", the $20 million purse, and the fact the field includes 23 of the World's Top 24 players, anticipation is sky-high in 2023.
This will be the first full-field elevated event of the year, and one that includes World No. 1 Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, defending champion Scottie Scheffler, and so many more of the Tour's biggest stars.
We break it all down in our Waste Management Phoenix Open betting preview below, including outright odds, a breakdown of favorites, free golf picks, and more.
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Waste Management Phoenix Open picks and predictions
Collin Morikawa over Tony Finau (+104 at FanDuel)
Whether he’s in the best form of his career or not, those looking to back Tony Finau at TPC Scottsdale this week should approach with caution.
Finau’s form of three wins among eight Top 10s in his last 11 starts is well-documented but his track record here in Phoenix is about as bad as his recent form is good. He’s made seven starts here, and while that does include a runner-up playoff loss in 2020, we’re otherwise looking at a T22 in his 2015 debut and… checks notes… five other missed cuts.
Yes, Morikawa threw away a win at the Sentry, but a runner-up finish followed up with a solo third at Torrey Pines means his recent form is just as good if not better than Finau’s. He’s also won this matchup with Tony in their last four aligned starts (WWT Championship, Hero World Challenge, Sentry TOC, Farmers Insurance).
While Morikawa is teeing it up for just the second time in Phoenix (T25 in 2020), he’s doing it after one of the best iron-play performances of his career, gaining +2.25 strokes gained on approach at Torrey Pines — a mark he hasn’t recorded since February 2021.
Considering Collin’s play of late, Finau’s struggles in Phoenix, and a line that could easily be 25 points off (Betway has Morikawa -120/Finau -106), getting Morikawa at +104 is one of my favorite plays on the board.
Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 (+150 at DraftKings)
If you’re looking for a true course horse this week, Hideki Matsuyama is your guy.
His resume is sterling even beyond his back-to-back victories in 2016 and 2017. Take away a second-round withdrawal in 2018 and we’re looking at five Top 10s among seven Top-20 finishes in eight career tries here — that includes a T8 last year.
The 2021 Masters winner was battling a neck injury for much of 2022 (and to start 2023) but proved he's holding up well with a T9 at the tough Torrey Pines two weeks ago.
He’s only finished outside of the Top 20 once in eight tries (excluding 2018 WD) and is rested since the Farmers. Expect more of the same from him this week.
Live odds to win 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open
Waste Management Phoenix Open field and favorites
Even with a field as strong as this one, it's certainly no shock to see Rory McIlroy (+800) and Jon Rahm (+850) on top. The two superstars have piled up seven worldwide victories in just their last 16 combined starts, the most recent of which was a win for Rory at the Dubai Desert Classic two weeks ago.
Behind the top dogs are a slew of established Tour winners: defending champion Scottie Scheffler (+1,500), Xander Schauffele (+1,600), last year's runner-up Patrick Cantlay (+2,100), Justin Thomas (+2,200), Tony Finau (+2,500), and Max Homa (+2,500). Finau notwithstanding, each of those guys finished inside the Top 15 a year ago.
Even beyond that, the odds board isn't short on notables: two-time winner Hideki Matsuyama can be had at 30/1, defending U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick at 37/1, and Jordan Spieth at 40/1.