The PGA Championship odds at prediction markets project another two-horse race between Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy as the second major of the 2026 golf season tees off Thursday at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa. Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps — gives Scheffler (the reigning PGA champion) a 17% chance to defend the Wanamaker Trophy. McIlroy (the reigning Masters champion) has seen his win probability drop to 9.3% following last week's Truist Championship.
Aronimink Golf Club hosts the PGA Championship for the first time since 1962, and the PGA Tour for the first time since the 2018 BMW Championship. Keegan Bradley won that event nearly eight years ago.
Below you'll find up-to-date PGA Championship odds, plus information on the favorites, the course, and more to help with your golf picks. The PGA Championship field was set at 156 golfers, with Brandt Snedeker and Sudarshan Yellamaraju claiming the final two spots Sunday evening.
📊 PGA Championship odds
| Golfer |  |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|
 Scottie Scheffler |
+500 | 17% |
 Rory McIlroy |
+975 | 9.3% |
 Cameron Young |
+1375 | 6.8% |
 Jon Rahm |
+1750 | 5.4% |
 Xander Schauffele |
+1600 | 5.9% |
 Bryson DeChambeau |
+2600 | 3.7% |
 Ludvig Aberg |
+2450 | 3.9% |
 Matt Fitzpatrick |
+2700 | 3.6% |
 Tommy Fleetwood |
+3025 | 3.2% |
 Justin Rose |
+6150 | 1.6% |
Odds as of 12:45 p.m. on Monday, May 11.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
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⭐ PGA Championship favorites
Scottie Scheffler (17%)
Scottie Scheffler has been fetching short odds at all four majors for nearly two years, and that hasn't changed in 2026. The World No. 1 lapped the field a year ago, winning by five shots at Quail Hollow Club, and he's finished inside the Top 10 four other times since his PGA Championship debut in 2020. His PGA Championship win probability remained stagnant following the Truist Championship, with a lackluster leaderboard at Quail Hollow not featuring any of this week's top contenders.
Rory McIlroy (9.3%)
The back-to-back Masters champ finished T47 in the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow last year despite entering the week as a popular choice at a course he's won on many times before. Still, the two-time champ is in great form, and he did finish T12, T7, and eighth in the three previous editions of the PGA. Rory McIlroy struggled through the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow, but I'm still interested in him as an outright PGA Championship pick as he hunts for a seventh career major.
2026 PGA Championship pick to win
⚖️ PGA Championship prop odds
Here are some of the additional PGA Championship trading markets and live odds from Kalshi:
Round 1 leader odds
Will there be a hole-in-one?
🆚 2026 PGA Championship field
The 2026 PGA Championship field was announced Tuesday. The field is confirmed at 156 golfers, including 15 former champions and 29 major champions.
Neither Tiger Woods nor Phil Mickelson is in the field.
⛳ Aronimink Golf Club course info
Aronimink Golf Club is a Donald Ross-designed track in Newtown Square, Pa., that plays as a Par 70 at nearly 7,300 yards. The course last hosted the PGA Championship in 1962 and has hosted the 2003 Senior PGA and 2020 Women's PGA since then.
📖 PGA Championship opening odds
| Golfer | Opening odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler |
+400 |
| Rory McIlroy |
+700 |
| Bryson DeChambeau |
+1200 |
| Jon Rahm |
+1600 |
| Ludvig Åberg |
+2000 |
| Xander Schauffele |
+2000 |
 Collin Morikawa |
+2500 |
 Justin Thomas |
+2500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood |
+2500 |
 Viktor Hovland |
+3500 |
 Joaquin Niemann |
+4000 |
 Patrick Cantlay |
+4000 |
 Tyrrell Hatton |
+4000 |
 Hideki Matsuyama |
+5000 |
 Brooks Koepka |
+5000 |
Opening odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.
📜 PGA Championship past winner odds
Six of the last eight winners closed with 20/1 odds or shorter, including Brooks Koepka three times (18/1, 10/1, and 20/1). With that said, we've also seen massive PGA Championship long shots win over the last 20 years, including Phil Mickelson in 2021 (200/1) and Keegan Bradley in 2011 (150/1).
| Year | Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Scottie Scheffler |
+650 |
| 2024 | Xander Schauffele |
+1400 |
| 2023 | Brooks Koepka |
+2000 |
| 2022 | Justin Thomas |
+1600 |
| 2021 |  Phil Mickelson |
+20000 |
| 2020 | Collin Morikawa |
+3000 |
| 2019 | Brooks Koepka |
+1000 |
| 2018 | Brooks Koepka |
+1800 |
| 2017 | Justin Thomas |
+3500 |
| 2016 |  Jimmy Walker |
+12500 |
| 2015 |  Jason Day |
+1200 |
Closing odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.
🎟️ How to trade on the PGA Championship
The PGA Championship is one of the most bet golf events of the year, so naturally, many will be placing their first golf picks on the tournament. If that happens to be you, we've got you covered with our beginner's guide to how to bet on golf.
The most popular way to bet on golf is by simply picking the winner, which is referred to as an outright. There are plenty of other ways to wager on most golf betting sites, however, including top finishers, head-to-head matchups, and plenty of props.
🏌️ More major championship odds
| Event | Favorite |  |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Open odds | Scottie Scheffler | +350 |
| Open Championship odds | Scottie Scheffler | +400 |
| Masters odds (2027) | Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of May 9.
❓ PGA Championship odds FAQs
Who has the best odds to win the 2026 PGA Championship?
Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win the 2026 PGA Championship, with an 17% win probability from Kalshi.
How often are 2026 PGA Championship odds updated?
Books can adjust PGA Championship futures at any time, especially after PGA Tour events, major news, or heavy betting action. On this page, the odds shown reflect the timestamp listed in the odds table. If you’re comparing prices, refresh the page and check the book’s current listing.
Do favorites usually win the PGA Championship?
Not always. PGA Championship outrights are a deep market, and even elite players win at a low rate in a single-event sample. Historically, many winners come from the short-to-mid range rather than the single shortest favorite. Use favorites as a starting point, then compare price to course fit, current form, and alternative markets like Top 10/Top 20.
What’s the best way to trade on the PGA Championship besides outrights?
If you don’t want the volatility of an outright, consider Top 5/Top 10/Top 20 finisher predictions or head-to-head matchups, which can better reflect form and course fit. Props can also offer angles without needing the winner.
