The USA basketball team is coming off its first Olympic loss since 2004, after opening the Tokyo 2020 games with an 83-76 loss to France.
The Americans will try to get back on track on Wednesday as they face Iran, who also lost its first contest of the tournament against the Czech Republic on Sunday.
Oddsmakers are expecting the US to bounce back with a vengeance, installing them as 38.5-point favorites for their second contest in Group A play.
Here are our USA vs. Iran picks and predictions for Olympic basketball action on July 28.
USA vs Iran game info
• Location: Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan
• Date: Wednesday, July 28, 2021
• Time: 12:40 a.m. ET
• TV: Peacock (live), NBC (delay)
USA vs Iran betting tips
- Iran +38.5 (-105)
- Under 165.5 (-115)
Read on for complete analysis
USA vs Iran match odds
USA: -38.5 (-115)
Iran: +38.5 (-105)
Total: 165.5
Over 165.5: -105
Under 165.5: -115
USA vs Iran betting preview
Key injuries
USA: No injuries to report.
Iran: No injuries to report.
USA vs Iran predictions
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Not only did the USA lose outright at 12.5-point favorites against France... but the Americans have now lost three of their last four games if you count their recent exhibition defeats to Nigeria and Australia.
The USA had a seven-point lead on France in the fourth quarter before going ice-cold from the field and allowing France to close the game on a 16-2 run.
Despite missing some big-name players, this USA squad is still filled with NBA stars. The Americans are still clearly the most talented team in the world but they have plenty of question marks when it comes to their ability to play team ball and their chemistry.
Iran had a massive 22-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Czechs but battled back to make the final scoreline a respectable 84-78. While it's easy to say that the USA was its own worst enemy in that loss to France, the Iranians also shot themselves in the foot, turning the ball over 21 times and allowing the Czech Republic to snag 16 offensive rebounds.
Iran doesn't have any current NBA players in its lineup but does have a 7-foot-2 former NBA center in Hamed Haddadi, so they should do a better job on the boards. While we do think the Americans will get on track with a big victory, we simply can't trust them to cover a 38.5-point spread given their recent play.
Iran showed their never-give-up attitude by fighting back against the Czech Republic and that makes them a solid bet to at least pull off the back-door cover on Wednesday.
PICK: Iran +38.5 (-105)
Over/Under pick
Behnam Yakhchali and Mohammad Jamshidi had the hot hand for Iran on Sunday, shooting a combined 16 for 27 from the field. But the Iranians don't have much depth when it comes to guys that can get buckets and now they'll be facing off against an American team with insane length and athleticism on the defensive end of the floor.
Keep in mind that Iran scored just 46 points through the first three quarters against the Czechs and will have an even tougher time against defenders like Draymond Green and Jrue Holiday.
The US had an absolutely miserable day offensively against France, shooting just 36.2 percent from the field. Usual sharpshooters Kevin Durant, Damian Lillard, and Devin Booker combined to go just 8 for 28 from the field for just 25 points.
While they should be able to bounce back against a plodding Iranian team, they might also get back to the basics and place greater emphasis on the defensive end of the floor. Expect Team USA to prevent Iran from getting good looks at the basket and back the Under.
PICK: Under 165.5 (-115)
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