While injuries to individual players can often shift basketball odds, it takes a truly elite skater to move NHL betting lines.
We'll get a chance to see just how much last year's Hart Trophy runner-up matters to the NHL odds today, with Nathan MacKinnon listed as questionable for the Colorado Avalanche's game against the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday.
This line has already moved massively with MacKinnon's status becoming more clear, so let's not waste any time as we bring you our best Wild vs. Avalanche picks and predictions for Tuesday, February 2, with the puck dropping at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche Betting Preview
Injuries
Wild: Marcus Johansson C (Questionable), Mats Zuccarello RW (Out), Matt Dumba D (Out), Marcus Foligno LW (Out), Marco Rossi C (Out), Kevin Fiala LW (Out), Alex Stalock G (Out).
Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon C (Questionable), Devon Toews D (Out), Erik Johnson D (Questionable), Matt Calvert (Out) LW, Pavel Francouz (Out) G.
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
Minnesota is just 2-5 in its last seven games following a win. Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs. Avalanche.
NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonColorado opened -186 and ticked as high as -196 at FanDuel, but is down to -164, with Minnesota a +138 underdog as of 6 p.m. ET. Despite the sizable moneyline drop, the Avalanche are taking 88 percent of tickets and money. The total opened at 5.5 (Over -125) and peaked at 5.5 (Over -130) before dialing back to 5.5 flat (-110). The Over is getting 88 percent of bets and 82 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline Pick
These teams clashed on Sunday in a thrilling back-and-forth contest that saw the Wild win 4-3 in overtime.
MacKinnon left that game after the second period due to an undisclosed lower-body injury. While he's listed as questionable for Tuesday and reports say the injury is not serious, Adrian Dater of Colorado Hockey Now says that he will still likely miss 1-2 weeks.
MacKinnon's absence will be a blow but the Avalanche have plenty of depth up front, especially on the wings. They also have an emerging defense group led by youngsters Cale Makar and Samuel Girard, as the two have combined for 20 points this season.
The Wild aren't exactly at 100 percent either, with their leading scorer last season Kevin Fiala suspended, and workhorse blueliner Matt Dumba on the IR. Other important depth players like Marcus Foligno, Marcus Johansson, and Mats Zuccarello are also out for Minnesota.
The Avs will also have the edge between the pipes with Philipp Grubauer returning to action after being given the night off on Monday. Grubauer is 6-2 with a 1.75 goals-against average and .930 save percentage this season, and he held Minnesota to a single goal in a 5-1 Colorado win on Saturday.
Journeyman goalie Cam Talbot will likely get the start for Minnesota. He surrendered three goals on 25 shots in Sunday's overtime win.
Taking the Avs at -210 didn't offer a lot of value, especially against a strong Wild team, but backing them at -160 (even without MacKinnon) is a lot more reasonable. With the Wild just 2-5 in their last seven games following a win, back Colorado in a revenge spot.
PREDICTION: Colorado (-160)
Over/Under Pick
The Avs are generally a terrific Over bet, having gone 14-6 O/U in their last 20 games, but without their star center that might not be the case.
While the two teams combined for seven goals on Sunday, MacKinnon assisted on both of Colorado's goals in the first two periods, while Hunter Miska was in net for the Avs and once again looked out of his depth.
Also keep in mind that the two sides combined for just 57 shots in regulation during that game, and 53 shots in Saturday's contest.
Limiting opponent scoring chances has been a recipe for Minnesota's success all season, with the Wild allowing the second-fewest high danger chances in the league per 60 minutes. The Avs do a solid job on that end of the ice as well, ranking ninth in the league in HDCA/60 in 5v5 hockey.
Another factor to consider is special teams, where Colorado has a league-best penalty kill percentage of 91.7, while the Wild sport the worst powerplay in the NHL, converting on just 2-of-39 opportunities with the man advantage. Take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (+100)
Wild vs Avalanche Betting Card
- Colorado (-160)
- Under 5.5 (+100)
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