It’s all on the line for the Winnipeg Jets in Game 5 at Canada Life Centre on Thursday, May 15.
The Dallas Stars can punch their ticket to the Western Conference Final, and my top Stars vs. Jets predictions and NHL picks are calling for another low-scoring bout between the Central Division rivals.
Who will win Stars vs Jets Game 5?
Winnipeg is 5-1 and has allowed the second-fewest goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 on home ice this postseason. Of course, the Jets went 30-7-4 at the Canada Life Centre during the regular season, and star goalie Connor Hellebuyck accounts for 27 of those wins with a sterling .938 save percentage.
Look for Winnipeg to batten down the hatches and send this series back to the Lone Star State for Game 6.
Stars vs Jets prediction
My Stars vs Jets pick: Under 5.5 (-105 at BET99)
There have been five goals or fewer in three of the first four games of the Round 1 series between the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets, and the teams have combined for just 20 goals and 24.31 expected goals through four games.
Dallas No. 1 Jake Oettinger has been lights out during the series with a .929 save percentage and 4.45 goals saved above expected, and Winnipeg star Connor Hellebuyck has been better on home ice during the postseason (.902 SV% and 1.99 GAA) and also blanked the Stars in Game 3 with a 21-save shutout.
Still, it’s been the stingy defense at 5-on-5 that has driven this series down the low-scoring highway. There have only been 14 goals and 16.71 expected goals at 5-on-5, and Oettinger and Hellebuyck have combined for a solid .915 SV%.
Additionally, I’m expecting the bulk of Game 5 to be played at even strength. It’s an elimination game, and I’d be surprised if there were many ticky-tack calls from the officials.
The last-change advantage will also allow Jets head coach Scott Arniel to rely on his preferred on-ice matchups, which has proven beneficial. Winnipeg is 5-1 on home ice while allowing the second-fewest goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this postseason, after all.
Stars vs Jets same-game parlay (SGP)
Jets moneyline
Under 5.5
Miro Heiskanen Under 0.5 points
Sure, Winnipeg came up short in Game 4, but there were a lot of positives. The Jets drove possession battle with a 60.0 Corsi For percentage and generated 56.6% of the expected goals, and Hellebuyck stopped 19 of 20 shots at 5-on-5.
Winnipeg has proven difficult to top on home ice, and I’m expecting a complete game from the Jets with their season on the line.
While Miro Heiskanen picked up a power-play assist in his return to action, he only logged 14:52 of ice time. The star defenseman missed approximately three and a half months with a knee injury, so I’m anticipating him continuing to see a sheltered role in Game 5.
There’s little reason for Dallas head coach Pete DeBoer to push him with a 3-1 series lead.
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Stars vs Jets odds
Stars vs Jets live odds
Stars vs Jets opening odds
- Puck line: Dallas +1.5 | Winnipeg -1.5
- Moneyline: Dallas -103 | Winnipeg -109
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Odds courtesy of BET99
Stars vs Jets trend
The Jets have hit the Under in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+11.50 Units / 25% ROI), and the Stars have hit the Under in 52 of their last 101 games (+6.65 Units / 6% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Jets.
How to watch Stars vs Jets
| Location | Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg, MB |
| Date | Thursday, 5-15-2025 |
| Puck drop | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, TNT |
Stars vs Jets latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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