The first two games of the 2023 Stanley Cup Final could not have gone much worse for the Florida Panthers. After being bulldozed in 5-2 by the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 1, the Panthers were decimated 7-2 in Game 2. But they're no strangers to being underdogs in the Stanley Cup odds.
Can they turn the tide in Game 3? Visit our Game 3 picks and predictions page for a full breakdown of Thursday's affair.
Meanwhile, I'll reveal my three favorite NHL player prop picks for this tilt below.
Golden Knights vs Panthers Game 3 prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis. Each odds widget below represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated US sportsbooks.
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Golden Knights vs Panthers Game 3 props
March-ing on
Before this series began, the Covers staff gave out some Stanley Cup picks, and I had Jonathan Marchessault as my Conn Smythe odds selection. Based on the way he's played so far in this series, I see no reason to back off that initial prediction.
Marchessault had the Vegas Golden Knights' first marker of Game 1 in the first period, and tallied two goals and an assist in his team's blowout victory in Game 2. I'm expecting him to keep this production going on the road in Game 3 tonight.
The top-line right winger is the clear-cut team leader in goals on the road this postseason, with eight tallies over eight games. That success away from T-Mobile Arena extends back to the regular season, where Marchessault was second on the Golden Knights in road goals (13), just two behind Reilly Smith.
Marchessault has badgered opposing goalies with a team-leading 34 shots as a visitor in these playoffs, and was second to Jack Eichel in total shots on the road in the regular season (120-108).
While three shots on goal is a number Marchessault has landed on a lot this postseason, I don't think the value is there in the shots on goal market for him. The NHL odds board has either juiced the Over 2.5s too much, or moved the line to a far less appealing 3.5.
However, I think there's value to be had in Marchessault using that shooting aggression and beat Florida Panthers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky for a third straight game.
Pick: Marchessault anytime goal (+190)
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No getting over on Hill
Though Adin Hill has enjoyed having a deep and talented corps of blueliners in front of him in the run to the Stanley Cup Final, there's no diminishing the role he's played in getting the Golden Knights to this point.
Hill has turned back an average of 31.5 shots over his 11 postseason starts while authoring a .937 SV% and a 2.06 GAA over his first 13 playoff appearances. Simply put, he's been a brick wall between the pipes at times for Vegas.
If Florida wants to win this game and avoid a backs-to-the-wall scenario in Game 4, they'll have to play to their strengths, and that involves a barrage of shots on goal.
No team has averaged more shots per game than the Panthers, who pepper opposing stoppers with 36.8 pucks per game. The number jumps to 37.4 shots per game in their own building.
I'm expecting Thursday night's Game 3 to be a busy one for Hill.
Pick: Hill Over 30.5 saves (-124)
Welcome Matt
Keeping with a similar theme to my second prop pick, I'm looking at Matthew Tkachuk to help pick up the slack on offense for Florida in Game 3.
The Cats collected 35 shots on goal in Game 1 of this series, and 31 in Game 2. Tkachuk had two of those in Game 1 and four of those in Game 2, one of which resulted in a goal.
Tkachuk has gotten plenty of buzz for the Conn Smythe throughout the Panthers' remarkable run to the Final, and it's not because he's taken a backseat on offense.
After leading his team in shots on goal in the regular season by a healthy margin (322 to Carter Verhaeghe's 275), Tkachuk is third among Florida skaters in the postseason with 54 pucks on net, albeit with a robust 18.5% shooting percentage.
The line is priced fairly on this Tkachuk prop with him returning to his own barn tonight.
Pick: Tkachuk Over 3.5 SOG (-108)
