The Buffalo Sabres visit the Bell Centre to face the Montreal Canadiens in an Atlantic Division clash between a pair clubs lagging behind in the playoff race.
Both the Sabres and Canadiens are 2-4 out of the All-Star break, and neither club is trending towards making a late-season surge towards a postseason berth, either. Buffalo is a modest road favorite in the NHL odds and is coming off a 4-2 home loss to the Anaheim Ducks on Monday. Montreal has lost two straight and allowed 11 goals in the process.
Here are our free NHL picks and NHL player props for the Sabres vs. Canadiens matchup on Wednesday, February 21.
Sabres vs Canadiens odds
Sabres vs Canadiens predictions
It’s been tough to pin the Buffalo Sabres down because they’re doing a lot of things right out of the All-Star break despite only winning twice. They’ve surrendered just nine goals at 5-on-5 while driving possession with a respectable 51.8 Corsi For percentage.
What Buffalo hasn’t done is find the back of the net. They’ve been held to 13 goals with a 31st-ranked 6.9% team shooting percentage through the noted six games. Monday’s 4-3 loss to the Anaheim Ducks serves as a perfect example, too. Buffalo won the 5-on-5 possession battle (67.1 CF%) and dominated overall with a 72.6% shot share and 72.3% of the expected goals.
If the Sabres come anywhere close to that performance against the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday, Buffalo will be leaving the Bell Center with a win.
The Canadiens sport a 28th-ranked 45.7 CF% and allow the 29th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (2.9) at 5-on-5. They also sport a 31st-ranked 74.0 penalty-kill percentage. Montreal was being bailed out by a pre-break .924 team save percentage that ranked seventh in the league, but the Habs sport an .892 mark across the past six games, which is much more in line with their talent jumping the boards and patrolling the crease.
I am expecting the Sabres to improve their shooting efficiency and capitalize on the defensive shortcomings of the Canadiens on Wednesday.
My best bet: Sabres moneyline (-150 at Sports Interaction)
Sabres vs Canadiens same-game parlay
Sabres moneyline
Sabres Over 2.5 goals
Jeff Skinner anytime goalscorer
The first two legs of this same-game parlay are my best bet and the backbone of it. Buffalo is a ripe candidate for offensive statistical correction, and Montreal is the perfect opponent for it to kick in against.
Turning to Buffalo winger Jeff Skinner, he hasn’t found the back of the net through nine games since returning from an upper-body injury. Even with his shot volume down (17 shots and 38 attempts), he’s still generated 2.62 individual expected goals and 10 high-danger scoring chances. Additionally, he’s only been on the ice for five goals despite Buffalo generating 10.07 expected goals.
Without doubt, there is a connection between the upper-body injury and the production decline, but the pendulum has now swung too far. Plus, Skinner continues to skate in a go-to offensive role with the top line and No. 1 power-play unit, and he ranked 18th among NHL regulars in goals per 60 (1.5) since the beginning of the 2021-22 season through January 9 prior to the injury.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Sabres vs Canadiens moneyline and Over/Under analysis
There has been a significant move to the Sabres moneyline since Sports Interaction opened it at -135 Tuesday. It’s consistent with the rest of the industry, and there also hasn’t been a buyback on Montreal to stop the Buffalo steam. Once the two starting goaltenders are announced there could be additional adjustments, and if Montreal opts to start Jake Allen, I’d expect even more movement to the Buffalo side.
Similar to the moneyline, this 6.5 total has seen consistent movement to the Under. It makes sense with Buffalo’s highlighted scoring woes, but Montreal has also played to the Over in four of its past six contests. It’s also notable that this is a consensus 6.5 number.
Sabres vs Canadiens betting trend to know
Buffalo has won five of its past six road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Sabres vs. Canadiens.
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Sabres vs Canadiens game info
| Location: | Bell Centre, Montreal, Canada |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 21, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN, MSG-B |
Sabres vs Canadiens latest injuries
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