Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Battle of Pennsylvania

Prop bet #1: The rust has been shaken

Pittsburgh Penguins winger Bryan Rust now has three games under his belt since returning from an upper-body injury that cost him most of December. He’s settled back into a second-line gig alongside Evgeni Malkin and Reilly Smith, and the trio are driving five-on-five possession with a 62.3 Corsi For percentage.

Rust registered four shots on four attempts last time out, and he was averaging 3.23 shots per game before sustaining his injury. Additionally, Rust has shown an uptick in shot volume overall with his 10.09 shots and 17.04 attempts per 60 minutes well above his 8.88 and 15.06 marks across the previous three seasons.

The Philadelphia Flyers are also in a bit of a tailspin after overachieving to start the year. Philly is on an active 2-3-3 slide with a 47.5 CF% at 5-on-5, so the matchup is sneakily favorable, too. The Bryan Rust odds are a little off the mark here.

Bryan Rust prop: Over 2.5 shots (+110 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Pens ground Flyers

The Pittsburgh Penguins are starting to string it together, and as noted, the Philadelphia Flyers are in the midst of a tough stretch. Pens starter Alex Nedeljkovic has been incredibly hit or miss this year, but he’s sporting a high-end .917 save percentage and Pittsburgh has surrendered the seventh-fewest goals per game (2.74) while sporting an eighth-ranked 52.6 Corsi For percentage at five–on–five.

Philadelphia has posted a 47.5 CF% at 5-on-5 during its current 2-3-3 slump, and the Flyers have been held to two goals or fewer in four of those eight contests. Additionally, Philly sports a league-low 10.2 power-play percentage

I’m expecting the Penguins to drive possession while limiting the high-quality chances for the Flyers. Pittsburgh is also finally back at full health, and I’m skeptical of Philly moving forward. A lot of their underlying statistics suggest the Flyers overachieved to this point of the year, and I have them ranked 26th in my offensive ratings, while the Penguins are 10th in my defensive ratings.

Alex Nedeljkovic prop: Under 2.5 goals against (+100 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Line juggle trips up Tippett

Philadelphia Flyers winger Owen Tippett is projected to skate on a line with Scott Laughton and Cam Atkinson on Monday against the Pittsburgh Penguins, and I don’t see the trio having offensive success.

Laughton has been caved into the tune of a 43.8 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five this season, and he and Atkinson haven’t been on the ice for a 5-on-5 goal together across 115:15 of shared ice time. Laughton also registered just 1.19 points per 60 at 5-on-5. 

Tippett’s most common centers this season have been Sean Couturier and Morgan Forst, and they’re both notably better than Laughton statistically. Couturier sports a high-end 55.9 CF% and has 1.96 points per 60 at 5-on-5, while Frost has 49.2 and 1.8 marks. 

Additionally, while Tippett is a high-volume shooter (3.49 shots per game), he does need someone to set him up. And, Laughton isn’t a proven playmaker. I don’t think this lineup adjustment is completely baked into the Owen Tippett odds for this betting market.

Finally, as discussed, the Penguins are a tough matchup. Pittsburgh has allowed the seventh-fewest goals per game (2.74) and ranks eighth in CF% (52.6) at 5-on-5.

Owen Tippett prop: Under 0.5 points (-105 at Bet99)