Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Stamkos, Kucherov Have the Advantage vs Ottawa

Prop bet #1: Invisible Marchand

We hit this exact prop on Saturday’s NHL props article, and I am going right back to the well on Monday as the Boston Bruins host the Dallas Stars. Oddsmakers expect a low-scoring outing in this game, with the total set at 5.5.

Dallas enters in great form, winning seven of its past nine games. Part of this success is due to the play of goaltender Jake Oettinger, who is projected to start on Monday. Over his last 11 starts, Oettinger is 9-1-1 with a .911 SV% and 2.83 GAA. This success is not solely due to his play, however, as Dallas prevents high-danger scoring chances at an elite level.

At 5-on-5, the Stars rank fourth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Not only does this team suppress scoring at even strength, but it is also difficult to get the power play going as Dallas ranks first in penalty minutes taken per game and eighth in penalty-kill percentage.

That brings us to Brad Marchand, who has seen nearly 50% of his points converted on special teams. If the Stars shut down Boston’s power play, which they frequently do, then Marchand will have difficulty finding the scoresheet, especially considering he has failed to record a point in five of his past seven games.

Brad Marchand prop: Under 0.5 points (+165 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Kucherov's on fire

Fast forward to Monday’s nightcap and we have the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Ottawa Senators. We could see Tampa light the lamp early and often, considering that oddsmakers set it as a -170 favorite in a game where the total is as high as 6.5 with -150 shaded to the Over.

Part of the reason for these prices is that goaltender Joonas Korpisalo is slated to start in the crease for Ottawa. Through 36 appearances between the pipes this season, Korpisalo is 13-18-2 with a .887 SV% and 3.41 GAA.

While those numbers are definitely terrible, he does play behind one of the most inefficient defenses in the league. At 5-on-5, the Sens rank 22nd in xGA/60.

Not only do they bleed high-danger scoring chances at even strength, but this is one of the easiest teams to rack up power-play goals against as they rank 27th in penalty minutes taken per game and 30th in penalty-kill percentage. That is great news for Tampa forward Nikita Kucherov, who leads the team in overall goals and is tied for the club's top mark in power-play tallies.

He’s put together a Hart Trophy-worthy campaign thus far, and he enters this contest in particularly good form with eight goals over his past nine games. In Kucherov’s last game against Ottawa, he scored once while adding four assists, a game in which Korpisalo started as well.

Nikita Kucherov prop: Pick (+105 at Bet99 - 0.5 units)

Prop bet #3: The Stammer handcuff

My thinking here is simple: I am fairly confident that at least one of Kucherov or Steven Stamkos will score against this defensively poor Senators team. And, if both score, all the better.

I mentioned that Kucherov co-leads the Bolts in power-play goals this season. Based on this play, I think you can guess who is right there with him.

Like Kucherov, Stamkos is also in good form, potting seven goals over his past 13 games. He’s also scored in two of his past five games against the Sens.

Both Kucherov and Stamkos skate on Tampa's top power-play unit, and it is no coincidence that this team leads the league in power-play percentage. These guys are both lethal on special teams, which could be especially problematic for Ottawa, considering its woes on special teams.

At least one of these two guys has scored in seven of the Lightning’s past nine games. 

Steven Stamkos prop: Pick (+170 at Bet99 - 0.5 units)